Ahhhhh, College Football Bowl Season is finally here. If you think I’m more excited than Buddy about Santa coming, you’re absolutely right, Boom. A lot of stuff has been happening in the college football coaching world the last couple weeks. Some coaches got fired, some moved from one job to another job, some even got promoted. Let’s be honest though, none of those moves really got my juices flowing, except for one. Enter, Major Lee Applewhite! That is one of my favorite names in football, it even competes with my man Jim Bob Cooter. As a player, you would have to be insane not to go all out for a guy name Major Lee. Not to mention this guy legitimately knows his football, well at least the offensive side. Former starting quarterback for the University of Texas, and he’s been the Offensive Coordinator at Rice, Alabama, Texas, and Houston. I don’t think Houston is going to have any fall off from Tom Herman leaving for Texas. I actually think Houston will be better off without him. Basically what I’m saying is take the over on Houston’s win total for next year as soon as it comes out. You can thank me later.
So now, for the real question: Does Major Applewhite wash his apples? Absofruitly. Not.
I apologize, that rant was pretty pointless, but that’s what blogs are for, right? Remember, this is my wife’s fault. Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go, Bart’s Best Bets Baby!
College Football Bowls: December 17-21
- UTSA vs. New Mexico: New Mexico (-7.5)
I’m probably going to be saying this a lot in my Bowl picks, but I really don’t know a whole lot about either of these teams. Sometimes knowing too little is better than knowing too much though. What I do know is, New Mexico beat Wyoming handly 56-35 in their last game. I really like Wyoming (more on that later), so that was enough for me to pick New Mexico even with the half point hook.
- San Diego State vs. Houston: Houston -4 and OVER 52
This is my featured pick for this slate of games, and if you couldn’t tell in the intro, I really like Major Lee Applewhite. You can say the same about Houston. If you would have asked me a couple weeks ago to pick this game, I would have said SDSU no doubt, because Houston was just going to have an interim head coach coaching the game and the Houston players wouldn’t care a whole lot. Well, the game completely changed when they made the in-house hire with Applewhite. Major Lee will be coaching the game and have his squad fired up for sure. My gut says this will be a close game but Houston will come out in the end and win by a touchdown. The pick I’m really confident about in this game is the Over 52. Both these teams average nearly 40 points a game, and while their defenses are probably average to above average, I don’t think either will be very effective at stopping the other powerful offense. I think this game easily goes over the 52 points, and that is my best bet of the weekend! A wise man once told me, “Life is too short to bet the unders” (this guy). I don’t always follow that philosophy, but here I am definitely going with it.
- Toledo vs. Appalachian State: Appalachian State (+1)
I think this game is going to be a low key really fun game to watch. Both teams know how to score points. I think this one will go down to the last couple possessions and whoever can get a stop down the stretch will win this thing. I love the MAC Conference and hate to go against them, but App State has the better defense here and I think they get the job done and win the game in the end.
- UCF vs. Arkansas State: Arkansas State (+6)
This is another one of those games that I really don’t know much about either team. What I do know is that UCF went from an 0-12 team last year to a 6-6 team this year under first year head coach Scott Frost. I also know that UCF has lost two out of their last three and Arkansas State has won seven out of their last eight. I know UCF has played a way harder schedule, but I like Arkansas State to stay hot here. Arkansas State will keep this one close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they even won this game outright.
- Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana-Lafayette: Louisiana-Lafayette (+6)
This is going to be a strength vs. strength match up between these two teams. Southern Miss wins games with their offense and Louisiana-Lafayette wins games with their defense. I don’t imagine the ratings on this game will be very high. Shoot, I probably won’t even be watching it. The one stat that stood out to me in all of this was that Southern Miss is 3-9 ATS this year and UL-Lafayette is 8-4. Southern Miss will win this game, but I think Lafayette will play tough defense and keep it within a touchdown.
- Central Michigan vs. Tulsa: Tulsa (-13)
At first glance, this line looks way too inflated and you probably think I’m crazy (you may be right). Then you look at the two teams individually and you see that Central Michigan got off to a really hot start, but lost four out of their last five games and most of those were to the lower half of the MAC. Tulsa on the other hand has only three losses. They got blown out by Ohio State, lost to Houston by 7, and lost to Navy by 2. Those are all quality losses, but Tulsa continues to get overlooked. I think they are one of the most underrated teams in the country this year and they should be upset that they got put in the Miami Beach Bowl? (Dang it, who put the question mark on the teleprompter!) For those reasons, I like Tulsa to win big in this one.
- Western Kentucky vs. Memphis: Western Kentucky (-5)
Western Kentucky had a great year, mostly because of their head coach, the legendary Jeff Brohm. It’s a shame that he took the head job at Purdue and won’t be able to coach this game, but I don’t think it will matter. Both are solid football teams and can definitely score points, but WKU ended the year on a complete tear, and I think they will continue that even though they are without their head coach. This will be a really entertaining game and I look for WKU to win this thing by double digits. Here’s a little bonus pick to wet your beak on. The total number on this game is set at 77 right now. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if this thing gets up into the high 80s. I feel really safe with the overs in this one.
- BYU vs. Wyoming: Wyoming (+8.5)
I have no idea how this line is so high in favor of BYU. Granted, I quit paying attention to BYU after about week 4 or 5 so I don’t know what’s been going on there. I do know they lost their quarterback to an injury in their last game of the regular season. Even though their backup started all year last year and played well, it just won’t be the same. Wyoming has played great all year and I don’t see it ending here. Their defense is a little sketchy at times, but they have proved to be able to put up points and keep up with good teams. This game is going to be another fun one to watch and I see it coming down to the wire. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won this game, so I will definitely take Wyoming and the points.
Ahhh, there it is. That was actually a lot of fun to write and I hope you all stayed with me until the end. Bowl season is incredibly unpredictable, that’s why it’ll be a lot of fun to see how these picks do. I’ll be back again on Thursday of Friday of next week with more picks. I hope everyone has a great weekend and a happy beginning to College Football Bowl Season!
Double COVERage 