I don’t know about you guys, but this college bowl season has me worn out. It started off low, but ended incredibly high . If you have been living in a cave for the past month and missed the bowl season, here’s a great rundown of all the games.
As far as my picks were concerned, well, it wasn’t great. I didn’t post all of my picks on the blog because I was way busier during my Christmas Break, but I did make a pick for every game because I wanted to see if I was any good at this thing (spoiler alert: I’m not). My record against the spread for college bowl season ended up being 18-21-1. Not a terrible performance, but I could have been better. Here are three things I learned during the college bowl season:
- No one likes the SEC (Nick Saban), but you sure don’t win much if you pick against them. Sometimes it’s better to just put your opinions to the side and go with the pick that makes the most sense (Alabama). Stop trying to be cute by picking against the SEC (Washington), it doesn’t work.
- Defense wins bowl games. I know it’s not much fun to watch a really good defense shut a really good offense down, but it happens a lot during bowl season. I’ll take a great defense that has a month to prepare over a great offense with a month to prepare. I was getting burnt by good defenses early in the bowl season and then I finally started riding the better defenses and it worked out quite well.
- Coaching changes before bowl games are inevitable, so take advantage of them. My first blog of the college bowl season was about Tom Herman leaving Houston for Texas and how Houston was still going to roll SDSU because they had Major Lee Applewhite taking over. I didn’t think it would shake up the chemistry for them since he had been their offensive coordinator all year, but it apparently changed something for the worse. It wasn’t just Houston, teams that made a coaching change before their bowl game went 1-3 against the spread this year. Stuff like that definitely matters, I won’t make that mistake again.
I learned most of this myself, but some of this stuff came from a book I read over break called: Good Teams Win. Great Teams Cover. (Thanks to my brother, Joe) This guy is really good, so if you’re interested in how to pick games, buy this book.
Bowl season definitely had its ups and downs. I didn’t do so great with my picks (good thing I don’t actually gamble money, right?), but I learned a ton of stuff along the way. I’ll take what I’ve learned from this bowl season and apply it to next years and I’ll probably do even worse, that’s how wonky this stuff really is. The best part about it was how many great football games I got to watch. Whether I was by myself or with my friends and family, I truly had a great time watching all of these games, and that’s what it’s all about right? So let’s try this thing one more time, and this time it’s for all the marbles. I’m going to research the crap out of this thing, and then throw all of that research in the trash and pick from my heart. Don’t be sad it’s over, smile because it happened. Here’s my College Football Championship Pick.
Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go, Bart’s Best Bets Baby!
College Football Playoff Championship
- Alabama vs. Clemson: (Clemson +6, AND Clemson +180, AND Over 51)
You know what they say, you throw out the record books when it comes to championship games. The team that plays the best that night and that night only will win the game. So I’m not going to look into the numbers at all in this one. What happens when this math teacher quits looking at numbers? Well, he starts thinking up crazy scenarios that will never happen, but then talks himself into thinking they are realistic. I’ve actually been thinking about this theory for awhile and I think it has legs.
First, let’s start out with the facts: Lane Kiffin will not be the offensive coordinator for Alabama on Monday night. Steve Sarkisian will be the OC for Alabama on Monday night. It’s common knowledge that Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin never got along. It’s also common knowledge that Steve Sarkisian is an alcoholic.
Now, here’s my theory: In attempt to sabotage Nick Saban’s chances of winning his 5th title in 8 years, Lane Kiffin is going to have a little fun with Sark the night before the championship game (Sunday night). Lane is going to take Sark out for a night on the town and “talk football”. Being a competitive human being, Lane challenges Steve to a drink off. Being a competitive human being as well (and also a rather stupid human being, not seeing what Lane is trying to accomplish), Steve accepts said drink off. We all know that Lane never stood a chance and Sark wins that one easy, just take a look at this receipt. Now, it’s Monday morning and Sark doesn’t make it for the morning walk through (meanwhile, Kiffin is already on a plane headed home, pretending nothing ever happened). Sark wakes up from ferocious knocking at his door, it’s Saban. Smelling the alcohol on his breath, Saban fires him on the spot and decides that he’ll just have to be the OC for the championship game. Here’s the thing, Nick Saban is a defensive genius, but I’m not so sure he knows much about the offensive end of the football. Bad news for Alabama. Clemson takes advantage and plays the best game all season, beating Alabama and winning the College Football National Championship.
Lane Kiffin strikes again. Clemson wins. Everyone is happy, right?
Ok, that was a little far out there, but I’m entitled to publishing stupid stuff because this is my blog (again, blame my wife).
Here’s the bottom line: I have a gut feeling that Clemson will not only cover the six points, but they will win the game outright in somewhat of a high scoring game that will come down to the last possession. I know earlier in the blog I told you guys that I learned to bet the SEC and go with the better defense, and I’m not doing either of these two on this pick. That’s because my gut trumps everything I’ve ever learned. Deal with it.
Clemson: 38 Alabama: 35
Have a great Championship Monday!
Double COVERage 