And I’m back! Can you believe my wife is letting me do this again?! I had way too much fun last year to quit this blog after one season and the Double COVERage team has tons of ideas for the upcoming CFB and NFL seasons. What better way to start the 2017 blog season off than with College Football season win totals? Sure, betting on point spreads from week to week is a lot of fun, but there is nothing that compares to the excitement (and anger) that comes from betting on a team’s season win total.

Which leads me to the story I like to call: “The Most Legendary Push of All Time”. Here it goes:

Last year the Double COVERage team decided to take the Arkansas Football Team UNDER 7 total wins. We studied that team back and forth and concluded that there was no way they could win over 7 games. We were sure they would finish with a record of 5-7 or 6-6. Their best case scenario was to go 7-5, but that was VERY unlikely. Our optimism in the Arkansas football team lasted literally one week into the season. Then came the legendary win over TCU: 41-38 in DOUBLE OVERTIME. In all of the calculations we had done, we had Arkansas with a record of 1-1 after 2 games with a loss to TCU. Well, they were 2-0 and we had all but lost our bet. I’m already getting long winded, so I’ll skip to their very last regular season game, because that’s really the only one that matters. Arkansas (7-4) is headed to Missouri (3-8) and we had already accepted the fact that Arkansas was going to win 8 games and we might be the worst college football wanna-be analysts of all time. Arkansas is leading at halftime with a score of 24-7. I’m going to be honest, I quit watching. I was officially done with Arkansas football and had nobody to blame but myself. Then, my phone starts blowing up with text messages from our Arkansas Under 7 Wins group text (Yeah, we had like six people in on this bet): “Can you believe this?! Missouri is coming back!”. So I checked the score on my phone and sure enough Missouri had scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter and held Arkansas to 0 so it was 24-21 Arkansas with the lead heading into the 4th quarter. You know why this was happening don’t you? You guys should know from the CFB Championship Game that when I quit watching something (or even go to bed), good things start to happen for our bets. So I just follow the game through our group text and good things continue to happen for Missouri. They end up scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter and again holding Arkansas to no points. Missouri beats Arkansas 28-24 and more importantly Arkansas finishes with 7 wins. Definitely not the outcome we predicted or were hoping for, but holy cow what a ride it was to get there! That, my friends is the story “The Most Legendary Push of All Time” and is a prime example of why betting season win totals is so excruciatingly exciting. We probably lost a few years of our lives last year (Thanks a lot, TCU), but we’re doing it again this year.

We did probably double the research this year and examined a lot of different teams, but we finally settled on one team we REALLY like this year. I’ll give you the three teams we decided between and why we love/hate their win totals for this season. Buckle up, it’s going to be a wild ride.

College Football Season Win Totals

South Florida OVER 10 wins (-110)

This one is very simple, all you have to do is look at two things: Their Schedule and their coach Coach. I know what you guys are thinking, Charlie Strong was REALLY bad at Texas, but he was put in a really rough spot. People like to forget what he did at Louisville in four seasons. He went 37-15 and led them to a bowl game every year. His last two years he had an outstanding record of 23-3, and that is why he got the head job at Texas. This guy knows how to coach football and is in a really good situation at South Florida. They return 16 starters from their 11-2 football team last year and they have a strength of schedule that ranks 110th out of 130. They might have the easiest non-conference schedule ever and all of their “tough” conference games are at home except for their last game that is at UCF. Worst case scenario is that they get a bad case of the injury bug and go 9-3 or 10-2. We think this team will go 11-1 or maybe even 12-0 if things go right. However, we did not take this one, because we would rather not watch AAC Football every single week of the season.

Oregon State UNDER 5.5 Wins (-145)

You had me at “6th toughest schedule in the nation”. This team does return 15 starters from last years team, but that team only won 4 games, and their schedule did not get any easier. The PAC12 is a very good football conference and their non-conference schedule does not do them any favors with Colorado State and Minnesota (Row the Boat!). They definitely have six winnable games on their schedule, but unfortunately most of those games are on the road. We see them going 5-7 at best, but wouldn’t be surprised if they went 4-8 or 3-9. However, we did not take this one because most of their winnable games are at the end of the season and we do not want to stress ourselves out with Oregon State for four straight weeks.

I hope you’re ready, because it’s time for me to unveil the “Double COVERage College Football Season Win Total Pick”. DaveCh999 made this bet official on Sunday, August 13th (In Las Vegas, of course). We researched this team up and down, back and forth and we couldn’t love a win total more than we love this one. We somehow even talked ten other people into taking this team as well (If you’re reading this, you’re welcome). Okay, okay, sorry for rambling, here it goes!

Miami (FL) OVER 9 Wins (-130)

Let’s start with the schedule. At first glance it looks pretty tough, but it’s actually ranked 47th toughest in the nation. They return 15 starters from last years team that went 9-4 all of their big conference games are at home except for Florida State. There’s a lot of positive things going on with this team. Schedule wise, they avoid playing both Louisville and Clemson and the Coastal division is a lot easier to get through than the Atlantic Division. Personnel wise, they have the best defense in the ACC Coastal, the best Offensive line and best receiving core in all of the ACC. Could you imagine if Brad Kaaya would have stuck around for this season?! That’s the only problem, Brad Kaaya is gone and they haven’t named a quarterback yet. Fortunately, they have two weeks of the season to figure that out until they have to go play Florida State. Whoever wins the quarterback battle is set though, with the great offensive line and receivers, all he has to do is not turn the ball over. Mark Richt knows that too, because they have been having “Ball-security meetings” with the whole team. Their big games are pretty spread out which is very important when looking at season win totals, and they only play one team that is coming off of a bye week (Georgia Tech). After going through their schedule we think they most likely lose to Florida State and trip up somewhere else along the way (Vigrinia Tech or Pitt), which puts them at 10-2. Worst case scenario being 9-3 and best case scenario 11-1. Needless to say, we’re VERY excited about the Miami Hurricanes football team this year and will be tuned in every single week. Feel free to go in on The U with us too.

I hope you enjoyed reading the first Double COVERage blog post of the year, because I sure as heck had fun writing it. DaveCh999 will post an NFL Preview in the near future and I will be back before CFB Week 1 with “Bart’s Best Bets”. Football season is ALMOST here folks, get excited.