Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the Second straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.

Words cannot describe how excited I was for the NFL to be back last Thursday night when the Chiefs took on the Patriots in Foxbrough. Roger Goodell showed up to New England to watch the Pats raise their 5th banner and celebrate the fact that NFL football was finally back. Like most people, I expected the Patriots to roll over the Chiefs quickly and effectively like the well oiled machine the Patriots are. I expected Brady to throw a couple TDs to whatever new white WR Bill Belichick picked up from the local YMCA that afternoon and the Pats to win no problem. I confidently took the Patriots -2.5 on a teaser and figured I could fall asleep around the 3rd quarter with no worries. Only there was a worry, the Patriots lost. Not only did they lose, but they blew a lead! (cue the new ‘Patriots blew a 17-7 lead jokes’). How in the hell could the Patriots lose on opening night at home? I was for sure the Patriots winning on opening night was inevitable, like death, taxes, or the fact that Kobe Bryant raped that girl in Colorado. So what went wrong? Are the Chiefs that good? Are the Patriots in for a long year? All I know is facts, and here’s a fact; Tom Brady is 40, and that’s not nothing.

“History repeats itself” is that just a meaningless quote history teachers tell high schoolers in order to get them to shut up when they ask why they have to learn about World War 2? Or is it a true statement? (As a high school history teacher I can tell you its both.) We’ve seen different European leaders take over Egypt thousands of years apart. Presidents have been assassinated in eerily similar ways. And we’ve seen Germany try to take over the world not once but TWICE! If that statement is indeed true what does that tell us about the last time Andy Reid and the Chiefs hung 40 on the Pats and Tom Brady?

You may or may not remember but 3 years ago this happened. In week 4 of the 2014 season the Chiefs destroyed the Patriots and Tom Brady 41-14 and it wasn’t even that close. In the days and weeks that followed the media asked the obvious question, is Tom Brady’s career coming to an end? Ya know cause he’s old. Bill Belichick famously said the team had moved on to Cincinnati, and long story short the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. Its been three years since anyone has seriously questioned whether or not Brady is too old to be playing mostly because he’s always proved everyone wrong. Coming off a bad loss I have an idea what will happen to Tom in the near future.

Bill Belichick has a history of cutting good players. Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Deion Branch, Lawyer Miloy, Mike Vrabel, Asante Samuel, Richard Seymour, Adam Vinitari, Wes Welker, Logan Mankins, Jamie Collins. That is just some of players who were cut or traded by Bill Belichick well before their primes were over. Part of what makes Belichick a genius is he is never afraid to get rid of a player who doesn’t fit his system, or is getting too old to play their position. The only consistent with the Bill Belichick led Patriots is there will be enough Caucasian wide receivers to make you question whether or not Belichick is racist, and Tom Brady will be the QB, only until he isn’t.

Father time is undefeated, its a quote that is often heard on sports talk shows and like most cliches its become a cliche because it is true. The list of NFL QB’s playing into their 40’s is short and unsuccessful, much like Kobe Bryant’s rap career. No matter how much kale TB12 eats he is coming to the end of his career. For any team in the NFL a QB that has played a 17 year career in a city and winning multiple super bowls is a ticket to finish your career however you want. However the Patriots are not like every NFL team, and Belichick is not every NFL coach. Belichick has a well document past of getting rid of players before their time, what is stopping him from doing the same with his beloved Tom Brady. You might think, ‘oh Bill has cut lineman and cornerbacks but they are replaceable unlike the great Tom Brady.’  WOW HOW WE HAVE ALL FORGOTTEN ABOUT HOW TOM BRADY GOT HIS JOB IN THE FIRST PLACE, HE REPLACED ANOTHER LEGENDARY QB.

Drew Bledsoe is only 5 years older than Tom Brady, and was far from washed up when he replaced Brady during the 2001. In fact going into the 2001 season Bledsoe had just signed a 10 year 100 million dollar contract. That did not stop Belichick from naming Brady his starting QB and throwing Bledsoe into the trash (aka Buffalo). At the time this move was shocking and controversial. Brady’s unworldly play over the next 15 years made the world forget about Drew Bledsoe. However precedent has been set, Belichick is willing to shock the world and replace a seemingly irreplaceable QB.  All he needs is the next Tom Brady, and he may have it in Jimmy Garoppolo.  Jimmy has only made a few starts and thrown a handful of passes but that didn’t stop teams this offseason from trying to trade up to 2 first round picks to pry him away from Belichick. Yet somehow Jimmy G is still a Patriot. We’ve already established that is Belichick doesn’t want you in New England, you’re gone. So why is Jimmy G still there?

The Patriots may finally be at the crossroads of Tommy terrific’s career. As with any crossroad there are two options, the Patriots destroy the Saints this Sunday and blow through the dumpster fire known as the AFC East en route to their 6th Super Bowl. Or this is the time for Belichick to shock the world, bench his golden goose and go with a younger and much more handsome arm, Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not saying which one is going to happen, but I will guarantee this. Tom Brady will not play QB for the Patriots forever and at some point Jimmy Garoppolo will be the Starting QB for New England. And it may happen sooner than you think.

 

NFL Week 2 Picks

All lines used from the Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest

6 point tease: Ravens -1.5 Panthers -1.5

Redskins +2.5

Broncos +2.5

Patriots -6.5

6 point tease: Ravens -1.5 Panthers -1.5

I got bit by temptation last week taking a tease of the 2 teams who made the super bowl last year and sweet temptation got me again this week. I’m taking another tease. This time I’m going with 2 teams who looked great in week 1 over two teams who looked mediocre in week 1, HOW COULD ANYTHING POSSIBLY GO WRONG. Ravens defense looked dominate in week 1 against the Bengals and I like them to dominate again at home vs the team who has started 800 quarterbacks since 1999 and is starting a rookie who went 4-8 his last season in college. Panthers on the other hand beat up on the niners last Sunday and head home to play the Bills. The Bills are 1-0 but that is just because they had the pleasure of playing maybe the worst team in the history of professional sports, the Jets. The Bills are not a good football team and I expect them to lose easily to the Panthers in Carolina.

Redskins +2.5

Washington spent the offseason firing their GM, then pretending they hired a new one? I honestly don’t think there is a person on the planet who fully understands what Dan Snyder is doing. The Skins are also going on almost 30 months deciding if they fully want to commit to franchise QB Kirk Cousins or not. Basically this whole Redskins season has disaster written all over it, or as Redskins fans call it, just another year. Still they are a better team than the Rams. The Rams destroyed the abysmal Colts last Sunday, which is the primary reason they are almost a field goal favorite in this game. Washington is the better team in this matchup and a much tougher opponent for the Rams than Scott Tolzien and the Colts.

Broncos +2.5

The dominate, super bowl 50 winning Bronco defense as a home underdog, this is a gamblers dream scenario. The main reason the Broncos are underdogs at Mile High is they are playing the Cowboys, who went 13-3 last year (with a very soft schedule let me remind you), and are the most public team in the NFL. Meaning more people bet on the Cowboys which moves the line toward them. The second reason is the Cowboys looked very good last Sunday against the Giants. I believe last Sunday was more a case of the Giants offence is terrible without OBJ, rather than the Cowboys actually have a good defense. And finally the Denver defense is still very good in case anyone has forgotten, especially against young QBs. 

 

Patriots -6.5

Tom Brady will eventually be replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo. Tom Brady is human and will eventually play like it. Tom Brady doesn’t have his safety blanket in Julian Edelmen. BUT this week is handed a gift. He gets to play against the horrific Saints defense. Bill and Tom are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up loss. The Patriots set the NFL record last year ATS going 16-3. All they have to do is beat the Saints by a Touchdown? Give me that all day. The poor Saints are in a tough spot coming off a Monday night game on the road and meanwhile the Pats have 10 days rest playing last Thursday. The Saints defense won’t know what hit em, I like the Patriots by double digits on Sunday.

 

Thank you to everyone for reading. Be sure to check out Bart’s Best Bets for college picks and come back next week for more NFL. Happy week 2 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football.