Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the third straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.

There is a 100% chance Trevor Siemian has been mistaken for the ball boy at some point during his NFL career. He played at a college known for producing more douchey ESPN personalities than NFL players. And yet somehow Its week 3 of the 2017 NFL season, and Trevor Siemian is the best Quarterback in the NFL. Siemian is currently leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 6. He has a passer rating this season of 106.9 (which I have no idea how good that is but Scott Tolzien has a rating of 33.8 so I know Siemian is significantly better than that.) Most importantly Trevor Siemian is the starting QB for a team that is undefeated. A season ago Trevor Siemian started 14 games and went 8-6 on a team that was coming off a super bowl victory. Siemian spent most of the season looking like drunk John Elway on the field, rather than looking like the best QB in the NFL. The season ended with the defending Super Bowl Champs missing the playoffs and many Bronco fans questioning who would be the starting QB for the team would be next season. So what changed? How did Siemian go from fighting for his job a few weeks ago, to leading the NFL in touchdown passes after week 2? The answer is more complicated than you think.

Did you get a chance to watch the Thursday night football game was week between the Bengals and Texans? What about the Monday night football game between the Lions and Giants? If you have a life unlike me and actually accomplish tasks during the evening when football is on; I’ll catch you up on what you missed. The Bengals, Texans, Lions, and Giants combined for 4 total offensive touchdowns in 8 quarters of play. The two games featured QBs Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Andy Dalton who have been to a combined 8 Pro Bowls. It also featured rookie Deshaun Watson who was drafted 12th overall in this years draft and is coming off a college season where he won a number of awards and won a national championship. These 2 games also featured WR Golden Tate, AJ Green, Deandre Hopkins, and Odell Beckham Jr, all of whom have made at least 1 pro bowl. How is it possible these 4 teams with this much talent, experience, and fire power only manage to score 4 TDs in 8 quarters of play? The Lions, Texans, Bengals, and Giants all have prominent QBs and WRs who anyone would want on their fantasy team. How is it possible they struggle so much to score yet Trevor Siemian is leading the league in TD passes.

If you did get a chance to watch the Monday night football game you might have noticed Eli Manning and Matt Stafford were sacked a lot, 9 times combined to be exact. The explanation for this is the left tackles for both teams had horrific games.  Ereck Flowers for the Giants had a Pro Football Focus (or PFF) grade of 40.9 (out of 100) and Greg Robinson for the Lions had a PFF grade of 31.4. What is strange about this is both of this guys were former top 10 overall draft picks. Maybe Eli Odell, and Stafford and Tate haven’t hit some kind of back slide but instead their offensive lines are not helping them out enough to move the ball and score TDs.

The Bengals Texans Thursday night game was no different. The Bengals offensive line had a average PFF grade of 40.4!! (again this is a score out of 100) The Texans O-line was not much better averaging a PFF grade of 41.9. I know most of you don’t read this to see stats you don’t understand but hear me out. Are Eli, Stafford, Dalton, and Waston all bad QBs who can’t take advantage of their star WRs? Or is their a lack of quality offensive linemen in the league to protect these QBs giving them enough time to throw to their star wideouts. A possible theory to explain the lack of production from offensive lineman is the lack of a preseason. Most teams have turned the preseason into an audition for young players to earn a roster spot. While the players already making millions of dollars will play a series and then spend 2 hours on the bench trying to eat hotdogs without fans noticing. The preseason is supposed to be a valuable time for linemen to get their chemistry and footing down before the real season begins. Instead coaches are too afraid to have their starting 22 get hurt they refuse to play them in the preseason.

So what does any of this have to do with the man boy who looks more likely to lead his grad school class in GPA, than to lead an NFL team to a super bowl, Trevor Siemian? Last season Siemian didn’t play great, but given what he was working with he wasn’t playing terrible either. In 2016 the Broncos had a terrible offensive line, and their top RB CJ Anderson was hurt for a majority of the season. Denver went out and revamped the Oline, drafted Garett Bolles in the first round to play left tackle and be the corner stone of the offensive line for years to come. The Broncos went out and signed former division foe and pro bowler Jamaal Charles to help their backfield. CJ Anderson is also healthy again and has dominated the first two games averaging 100 yards per game. So what does an improved offensive line, and a healthy running game mean for Trevor Siemian? He looks like the best QB in the NFL. With pass protection and the ability to run the ball Trevor Siemian is allowed to have time to find receivers for TDs.

Trevor Siemian may not be the most talented QB in the League, but he’s been playing like the best QB in the League the first two games because the Broncos have put him in a position to succeed. Surrounding him with a solid offensive line, great running game, and an unbelievable defense. The media spends so much time dissecting quarterback play, comparing, ranking, trying to decide who is elite and who isn’t. What they fail to mention so often is who is surrounding a QB matters so much. Last season Dak Prescott as a rookie led the cowboys to a 13-3 record and was considered an MVP candidate. Is Dak Prescott a great QB? Time will tell, but in 2016 he was given the best offensive line in football, and a great running back. This allowed Dak to minimize his risks and help his team win 13 games, Trevor Siemian may be able to do the exact same thing this season.

Is Eli washed? maybe. Is Andy Dalton drastically overrated? maybe. Is Trevor Siemian the best QB in the League? maybe. I’m just some dude who learned how to type words into the computer and hasn’t played football since my freshman year of high school. But I do know this for certain. The players around these quarterbacks, Offensive linemen, Running backs, and coaches, matter a lot more to these quarterbacks success than we give them credit for. Trevor Siemian might lead the Broncos to the Super Bowl this year, and he won’t deserve that much credit. Just like he didn’t deserve the blame for the team missing the playoffs last year. Let’s just hope if the Broncos do make the super bowl, Siemian will stop getting mistaken for the ball boy.

NFL Picks Week 3

All Lines used from the Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest

Broncos -3

Steelers Packers Patriots: Moneyline parley -148

Steelers Packers Patriots: Moneyline Parley -148

3 team moneyline parley for a -148 payout doesn’t seem like the most lucrative bet but this isn’t about making a sexy pick, this is about picking a winner, and I think all 3 of these are winners. Steelers are 2-0 and go on the road to take on the Bears and the corpse of Mike Glennon. Pittsburgh hasn’t been great on the road in the Big Ben era, but the Bears are not a good football team. Meanwhile the Steelers are a good football team, and usually good football teams beat bad football teams. Packers are 1-1 at home taking on the Bengals who are a few weeks away from realizing they should have fired Marvin Lewis 2 years ago. The Packers are in a good position to bounce back from the loss Sunday night in Atlanta by beating up on the 0-2 Bengals. Finally the Patriots are at home against a rookie QB. Bill Belicheat is 1,548-0 against rookie QBs in his head coaching career. You don’t even need to pay attention to this one, the Texans aren’t winning in Foxborough.

Broncos -3

The Broncos travel for the first time all season, where they are in Buffalo to play the Bills. The Bills are somehow 2-0 ATS this season probably due to the fact they got to open the season playing the JV squad known as the Jets. Last week in Carolina the Bills only were able to put up 3 points. The Panthers have a good defense but the Broncos defense is even better. The best compliment you can give the Bills all season is their teams effort is great despite the fact management clearly wants to tank after trading Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby in August. The Broncos will move to 3-0 beating the Bills easily.

 

Record ATS to date: 5-2

Thank you to everyone for reading. Be sure to check out Bart’s Best Bets for college picks and come back next week for more NFL. Happy week 3 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football.