Ahhhh, finally, Bart’s Best Bets finally had a good week last week. We went 4-1 thanks to a super nice backdoor cover by the Minnesota Gophers. That PJ Fleck guy just refuses to give up, and his career ATS record reflects that (I have no idea what it is, but I’m assuming it’s good).
I’m happy that I’m back on track, but it’s important to keep focus on the road ahead. This week is going to be a little different than others. I have mostly been Power 5 Conference heavy for the first seven weeks of this blog. After looking at the board, there is not much I like in the major conferences this week. So I am going to turn to the smaller conferences, because that’s where the real value is at. In particular, I am picking a couple games in the Mid-American Conference (MAC). This is one of my favorite conferences to follow, both in football and basketball, and it’s time to start jumping on some of those teams. Alright, enough rambling, let’s get to business. MACtion is back, baby! Let us go!
Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go, Bart’s Best Bets Baby!
Saturday, October 21st
Temple @ Army (-6.5)
Here’s my main reasoning for liking Army (or disliking Temple) in this game. Any team that loses to UCONN at home (Temple last week) should not be less than double digit underdogs in their next game. I had to be one of the few people watching the UCONN v. Temple game on ESPNU last Saturday morning. It was one of the worst/ugliest football games I’ve ever seen. Temple is not a good football team and Army still has a lot to play for this season. I’m not sure, but I don’t think it’s easy to go into West Point and win a football game against Army (4-0 at home). This is a gut feeling, but I think Army wins this game by 10+.
Iowa @ Northwestern Under 47
I’m not sure why, but this total really caught my eye. Something about a morning kickoff in Evanston that makes me like under here. These are two teams that can put up a lot of points against shaky defenses, but the strength of both these teams is on the defensive end. The spread right now is at Iowa -1.5, and I’m sure it’ll be a close game throughout, hopefully with a lot of punting. You guys know that I don’t like picking unders, but I have a feeling with this one. I think this is an old school Big Ten battle that will end up being 20-17 or something like that, I’ll let you choose who wins.
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (+3)
Western Michigan was one of my favorite teams to bet on last year, but they were highly overrated at the beginning of the year, and even though we are already more than half way through the season, I don’t think the public has really caught on that they are no where near the same team as last year (2-5 ATS). On the other side we have Eastern Michigan, who is tied for 6th in the FBS with an ATS record of 5-1. EMU has lost 4 straight games, all to very quality opponents, including a 28-27 dog fight at Army last weekend. Eastern Michigan is hungry for a win, and what better way to do it at home against their biggest in state rival? I love EMU at home getting four points here. Maybe even consider sprinkling a little on the moneyline. Gotta love an underdog, when he howls.
Buffalo (+3) @ Miami-Ohio
I told you we’d have a fair share of MACtion picks in this one. This is truly a trend/stats pick. Buffalo leads the all the FBS in ATS with a perfect record of 7-0. You like that? You’ll like this even more. Miami is fourth worst in the FBS in ATS with an abysmal record of 1-6. Yikes. Look, these are two teams that will finish somewhere in the bottom of the MAC, but somebody has to win this game. Buffalo has played a harder schedule than Miami and they have also played opponents closer than Miami has. Vegas has no idea who’s going to win this game, and the only reason Miami is favored is because they are at home and they think that home field advantage is worth three points. I consider Buffalo +3 a nice gift. Again, maybe even consider putting a little on Buffalo moneyline if you’re feeling lucky.
Wyoming (+14) @ Boise State
I don’t know about you guys, but I need a nice late night football fix after all that afternoon MACtion. I usually turn to #Pac12AfterDark in these sort of situations, but once again, I found some value in a smaller conference, the good ol Mountain West. I know that Wyoming and specifically Josh Allen haven’t lived up to the hype this year, but they still find themselves on a nice little three game winning streak. On the other side, we have a Boise State team that has not played up to their Boise State Program expectations this year. Sure, they did just have a really nice road win over San Diego State last week, but I’m not sold on them. Both teams have really struggled on the offensive side of the ball this year and have been carried by the defense. Here’s a nice little nugget: Boise is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games and Wyoming is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games. I think Boise State wins this game, but by two touchdowns or more? Give me a break, or even better, give me Wyoming and the 14 points.
Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 18-17 (14-11 ATS, 4-6 O/U)
There you have it, folks, Week 8 of Bart’s Best Bets. I finally had a good week last week and am back over .500, but there’s still a lot of season left. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 7 picks!
Double COVERage 