Well, nothing exciting really happened last weekend (except my first push of the year). There were more blowouts than there were upsets. I think we did find out some valuable information though. Penn State and Notre Dame are for real (at least for another week) and USC is exactly who we thought they were: Fake. I shouldn’t be disappointed with how Michigan played, but I kind of am. I understand that Michigan has zero offense, but I figured the defense would at least slow Penn State down and make it a decent game. I feel like college football season is finally serious, and teams are ready to make the final push. There are some big time games this week, and I have a feeling there will be craziness in the top 10, but I have no idea where it’s going to happen. So I’m just trying to stay focused and find the best value out there. Let us begin.
Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go, Bart’s Best Bets Baby!
Saturday, October 28th
Penn State (+7) @ Ohio State
Is this a trap? Probably, and I’m falling right into it. I wish they would have scheduled this game for primetime instead of the afternoon because this is by far the game I’m most excited for this week. Ohio State and Penn State are playing their best football right and I don’t think this game will disappoint. I could throw a bunch of stats and trends out for this game, but none of that really matters. Penn State has the best player in this game (and in the country) in Saquon Barkley and I think this Trace McSorely guy is a very good quarterback. Penn State also has a better defense than Ohio State. Sure, Ohio State is the home team and they are coming off a bye week. Penn State has the momentum and the better players, I’m taking Penn State +7 and maybe even considering putting a little “sprinkle” on the moneyline.
Missouri @ UConn (+14)
Yikes, these are two bad teams, no one is going to watch this game (not even me). So why are you picking this game, BartSauce? I am picking this game because I find a TON of value in UConn getting double digits at home. The Huskies have won two straight games and seem to have a lot of momentum and confidence coming into this game. Missouri is in the SEC, which is a way tougher conference than AAC. They are also coming off a 68-21 win over Idaho. I believe that win and the fact Missouri are in the SEC is why they are favored by 13 here. Here’s the truth, Missouri is a really bad football team, no matter what conference they are in. UConn is at home and has momentum. The Huskies may not win this game, but I think they will keep it close for sure.
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (+2)
A home team getting points, my favorite. This is the most underrated game of the weekend. These are two above average SEC teams that nobody really cares about because they aren’t named Georgia or Alabama. Texas A&M is coming off a bye week and has had two weeks to prepare for the high octane Mississippi State offense. Both of these teams are 5-2 but they couldn’t be more different. MSU’s two losses are both blowout losses to Georgia and Auburn. A&M’s two losses are a one point loss to UCLA in week 1 (remember that?), and an 8 point loss to Alabama. Those are two embarrassing losses versus two not so bad losses. Put all of that and add in the home-field advantage A&M has and I like the Aggies to win this one outright. So I will gladly take the points.
Nebraska @ Purdue Under 51
Here’s a stat for you: Nebraska has scored 17 and 14 points in the last two games. Purdue has scored 12 and 9 points the last two games. When I first saw this total on Monday it was at 49.5 and I immediately thought: “I love the unders in this game”. Well, I just checked the total again (Wednesday) and the total is at 51, and I immediately thought: “It’s a little fishy the total keeps going up, but I love the unders even more”. I’m not sure how this game is going to go in terms of the winner, but I have a very good feeling the total score will stay under 51.
UNLV @ Fresno State (-21)
Well I hit a Mountain West game to finish off last weekend (Thanks, Wyoming), so I want to go back to that conference for another week! Here’s the deal, UNLV is a bottom 10 team in the FBS. They are 2-5 and their two wins are Idaho (bad) and San Jose State (even worse). They also lost to Howard (yikes). I don’t care about any of that though, because I absolutely love Fresno State and here’s why: First, the Bulldogs are 6-0-1 ATS so far this year. They are 5-2 straight up and their two losses are to Washington and Alabama, but they covered the spread in both of those games! They have won 4 straight games and beat every team in their conference so far by 17 or more points, including San Diego State last weekend. Fresno State is a confident and hungry football team that has a legitimate shot a playing for the Mountain West Championship and UNLV has all but given up on the season. I love Fresno giving 3+ touchdowns because I think they’ll win this thing by 30 or more.
Bart’s Best Bets YTD: 20-19-1 (15-13-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
There you have it, folks, Week 9 of Bart’s Best Bets. I had an average 2-2-1 week last week and am still hovering over .500, but there’s still a lot of season left. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 8 picks!
Double COVERage 