It’s finally November and the College Football Playoff Committee came out with their first set of rankings on Tuesday. I wasn’t surprised by the teams in the top four or the order they were in. Some people think it’s ridiculous that Georgia is ranked ahead of Alabama, but if you compare the resume of both teams, Georgia definitely has the best in the country. Is Georgia a better football team than Alabama? Absolutely not. If they were to play this week Alabama would be favored by anywhere from 7-10 points, and I’d take Alabama in a heart beat. This thing is far from over and the rankings this week don’t matter much in the grand scheme of things because a lot can and will happen even this weekend to shake things up.
I don’t know about everyone else, but I was very happy Alabama was ranked #2 in the country this week. I was even happier the team ahead of them was one of their conference rivals. So why does any of this matter when making my picks for this week? Here’s the simple answer: We get a pissed off Alabama Crimson Tide football team against LSU, that’s why. Let’s go.
Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go, Bart’s Best Bets Baby!
Saturday, November 4th
Auburn (-15) @ Texas A&M
I had a big swing and miss on Texas A&M last weekend, so I’m ready to make up for it this week. The Aggies got beat 35-14 last weekend against Mississippi State and lost their starting quarterback in the process. Auburn is well rested coming off their bye week and is ready for a revenge game (lost 29-16 last year). I usually wouldn’t give this many points with a road team, but I think Auburn is a solid play here. Auburn still has a lot to play for and Kevin Sumlin could already be half way out the door in College Station. The Tigers are the better team with a better coach and are rested and healthy. Auburn wins by 20+.
Rice @ UAB (-11)
As you guys know by now, when I am looking at lines on Monday afternoon, I am only looking for numbers that really pop out to me. This is a pure example of a number popping out to me. Rice is a bottom five team in the FBS and UAB is one of the more underrated teams to bet on due to their lack of exposure. Here are some nice stats: Rice is 1-7 overall and 2-6 ATS this year. UAB is 5-3 overall and 6-2 ATS this year. Rice is on a six game losing streak and UAB is coming off a very nice 18 point win over Southern Miss. UAB at home against one of the worst football teams in the nation. I’ll take the Blazers by at least two touchdowns.
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas Over 59.5
Here’s another odd game to pick. Very slim pickings this week, deal with it. Here’s a couple thing I know, Arkansas is not a good defensive football team and Coastal Carolina is bad at everything. I honestly have no idea how this game is going to go, but I think both teams will give up points. I think Arkansas will put up at least 45 points against the Chanticleers. That means Coastal Carolina only has to score a couple garbage time TD’s, which I think they will. Vegas has no idea what is going to happen in this game and I think we can take advantage of this low total.
Virginia @ Miami Under 50
Tell me if you’ve heard this before: I absolutely love this pick. First off, I can’t wait to watch this game. Two very good teams playing the best their best football of the year. Quick Question: What are these two teams best at? DEFENSE! So why is this total set at 50? I have no idea, because I think this will be a field position game throughout with a lot of punting. I have a feeling this game will end well under 50 at 20-17 and I’ll let you pick the winner. (Go Canes!)
LSU @ Alabama (-21)
Are you guys ready for my favorite pick of the year? There’s so many different reasons to love Alabama in this spot, but I will try to keep it to a minimum. First reason, Alabama was ranked as the #2 team in the first CFP rankings of the season. To make it even worse, the team ahead of them is Georgia, another member of the SEC. Yikes. Second reason, Alabama is coming off a bye week, so they are well rested and extremely prepared for LSU. Third reason, stats: Alabama is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a bye week and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 November games. Finally, LSU is 0-4 ATS in the last four games against Alabama. So we have a pissed off Nick Saban, at home, off a bye, against a team that lost to the Troy Trojans on their homecoming? (People don’t forget) Yeah, give me Alabama by 30+ points. Sorry Coach O, have an extra bowl of gumbo to ease the pain.
Bart’s Best Bets YTD: 22-22-1 (16-16-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
There you have it, folks, Week 10 of Bart’s Best Bets. I had a below average 2-3 week last week and am officially right at .500. It could be worse, but like I’ve been saying all year, there’s still a lot of season left. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 9 picks!
Double COVERage 