Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the 14th straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.
"Winning is a habit, Unfortunately so is losing" - Matt Lauer
Our country is facing a difficult time where the majority of people are not happy with the current leadership. We’ve had it so good for some long but for the first time in a long time people are beginning to think the future will be worse than the past. The current leader in charge seems to be disliked universally, with many people questioning how he even came into power in the first place. The only thing that could possibly be worse is 4 more years on the same leadership. Then Wednesday afternoon the unthinkable happened… that leader will now be around for at least 4 more years.
I’m talking of course about none other than Roger Goodell. (What? Who else could I have been talking about?) Wednesday morning it was announced the Goodell will be around until 2023 making 40 million dollars a year. It seems to be a year in the NFL where there have been a lot of questions about leadership, where is the league headed? How will the league handle social justice issues? What is the league doing to improve player safety? After all this questioning, debating, and criticism. The league continues to win at the end of the day. What failing business do you know that is giving its boss and 40 million dollar raise.
On the football side of things we are down to the final 4 weeks of the season and things are really starting to take shape. The Steelers, Patriots, Eagles and Vikings each are 10-2 and have pulled away from the rest of their conferences to take the top to spots in the AFC and NFC. Over the next 4 weeks these teams will look to set themselves apart from the pack and grab a buy in the first round of the playoffs. The last 4 weeks won’t just be important for the top teams in the playoff picture, it will also be very important for the bottom teams in the league standings.
Now it may seem like for many teams these last 4 weeks are like a slow walk to the chopping block as they limp to their fate. Teams like the 49ers, Colts, Giants seem like they are dead men walking with absolutely no chance of making the playoffs, but these next 4 weeks will end up determining who gets the top draft picks in April. The NFL is not the NBA, the team with the worst record will get the first overall pick, and so on and so forth. Meaning if the Giants decide to with 3 of their last 4 games they will go from 2nd overall pick to possibly the 8th overall pick. Want to know what kind of difference that makes? 6 years ago the Washington R-words traded away 3 first round picks and a 2nd round pick to move into the 2nd overall spot to draft their franchise QB Robert Griffin III (what a bargain that trade was, amazing how everyone hates their owner).
Like my man Herm Edwards once said, YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME, HELLO!??!! Maybe if Herm’s Jets or Chiefs teams would have gotten better draft picks he would have coached in the league longer. I know players in the NFL never play a game with the intent to lose but they should. If your team has no chance at the playoffs, why not try to set yourself up for the best possible draft pick. These losses could mean the difference between drafting the next Peyton Manning and drafting the next Ryan Leaf. Lets look at what the bottom feeders need to do to secure the best possible pick.
Indianapolis Colts 3-9
The Colts sit at 3-9 with 4 games remaining. I wrote at the begining of the year how badly the Colts have mismanaged Andrew Luck’s health and it showed when they went into the season with Scott Tolzien as the starter. The Tolzien era lasted all of 1 half, and if it would have lasted all season the Colts would most likely be 0-12 and looking at a number one pick, but no. The Colts went out and traded for a competent QB in Jacoby Brissett who actually isn’t terrible. It was a great move if the team were trying to win games, but unfortunately for them they forgot the rest of their roster was trash too. Jacoby Brissett basically walked onboard the Titanic and managed to keep it from sinking for a few extra hours, truly impressive. Fortunately for the Colts they shut down Andrew Luck for the season. If Luck were healthy he probably would have carried this team to 7-9 or 8-8; ruining another top pick. The Colts are looking like they will get a top 5 pick if they lose out and maybe now they can start to fix their trash bag roster before Luck comes back next year. If I were Jim Irsay: Start Scott Tolzien, sacrifice him behind those dumpsters they call an offensive line, get a top 5 pick and get Andrew Luck some help for once!!
Chicago Bears 3-9
The Bears are coming off a huge loss on Sunday to the 49ers. They masterfully let Jimmy Garoppolo drive down the field in the 4th quarter and kick a game winning FG to lose to the 1-10 Niners. Now the Bears are only 1 game back behind the Niners and Giants in draft order. Ever since Mitch Turbisky became the starting QB one thing has become apparent. The Bears offense can’t score. Every year we hear the question “could Alabama beat the Browns.” Which obviously can’t happen because Alabama’s payroll is too steep it would go over the NFL’s salary cap. But if Trubisky and the Bears faced off against the Alabama defense, The Bears would score under 30. Every game the Bears have won this year their defense has scored at least one TD. Good thing the Bears traded up to take a QB last year only to watch him average under 17 PPG. Good News is they have John Fox so I’m sure whatever he does the next 4 weeks should put them in great position to take a star receiver Turbisky can overthrow next year.
Denver Broncos 3-9
Two games into the season I declared that the Broncos had fixed their 2016 issues and Trevor Siemian was set up to have a great year behind a real OL and a great running game. Ever since then the Broncos are 1-9, Siemian has been benched and then forced back into action due to injury to Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler looking like Brock Osweiler. The Broncos are on a 8 game losing streak and looking like a team that really wants that top 5 pick. Their defense which carried them to a super bowl two years ago looks someone who finished a marathon and then tried to turn around and run the course backwards. The Denver D could only carry the terrible offense for so long. What will be interesting is what the Broncos do if they get a top 5 pick. Will they take one of the top QBs on the board? Just two years ago they traded into the first round to take Paxton Lynch who only has started 3 career games. Do they let coach Vance Joseph have another year? or do they bring in a new offensive minded coach to fix their QB issues. I think the best QB is actually in the front office and ole John Elway should put on the pads one more time and see if he can still sling it. GOOD FOR YOU BUD.
New York Giants 2-10
A week after I wrote about how terrible of a football coach/human being Ben McAdoo is he went and benched Eli Manning. Now this was a perfect move if he had the intention of losing as many games as possible the rest of the season and getting a top 3 draft pick. The New York media did not agree. McAdoo was buried by the press highlighted by Mike Francesa calling out McAdoo for being a coward. The Giants went on to take another L and promptly fired Ben McAdoo Monday morning. As much as I disliked McAdoo, now that he’s gone I think I’m gonna miss him. No one was as good at making a team look like they were tanking than Ben McAdoo. Which is the reason this move by the Giants was a terrible one for their future draft pick. If the Giants really had their futrue in mind they would have let McAdoo do whatever that thing was that he considered coaching and loss the next 4 games, assuring their top 3 draft pick. Now with an interm coach and Eli starting again the Giants may mess around and win themselves out of the top 3.
San Francisco 49ers 2-10
The Niners spent a majority of the season looking like the tank train was full speed ahead. What I really respected about the Niners tank was the complete lack of shame. They let CJ Beathard start 7 games this year! They should be taking home the tank gold medal this year! But then they went and screwed it up at the trade deadline. The Niners went out and traded for Jimmy Garoppolo, giving them a competent NFL QB. Head coach Kyle Shanahan was smart though, he kept Jimmy G on the sidelines saying “he needed time to learn the offense.” Nice move Kyle, we all know that meant “we need to keep losing to get a good draft pick next year and Jimmy is too good he might win us some games.” However, much like Kyle Shanahan’s play calling in last years Super Bowl, his tank plan for this season is blowing a 28-3 lead (reminder I am allowed to make Falcons jokes because I am the one suffering from that heartbreak. No one else is allowed to make jokes about it, its still too soon.) The Niners started the year 0-9 but now have won 2 of their last 3 games, including last Sunday when Jimmy Garoppolo started his first game because CJ Beathard was injured. Starting Jimmy G the rest of the season would be a mistake. He might actually be good, and the Niners might win 2 or 3 more games dropping themselves out of the top 3. If I’m Shanahan I bench Jimmy Garoppolo for some phantom injury and immediately sign my old buddy RG3. I hear he’s available and surely he can lead the Niners to an 0-4 finish.
Cleveland Browns 0-12
What can I say, they are the masters. Hue Jackson and the Browns are set the bar for NFL tanking. Week after week they get the job done. They are the anti Patriots. The Browns are 0-12, and not going anywhere besides the top 3 of the NFL draft. Bravo Browns these other teams above could learn a lot from you on how to lose. Now if only the Browns could figure out how to draft anyone good at all they’d be going somewhere.
Week 14 NFL Picks
All lines used from the Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest
Eagles +1
Chiefs -4
49ers +3
Eagles +1
The game of the day is Sunday afternoon in LA where two of the top teams in the NFC will play in front of a crowd that could be close to 50/50 Rams fans and Eagles fans. Philly has been out on the west coast since playing Seattle on Sunday night football last week. The Eagles are coming off only their second loss of the season last week and the Eagles were not outplayed. A few plays like Carson Wentz fumbling in the back of the endzone and Russel Wilson converting a 3rd and long on an illegal lateral really swung the game for Seattle. Chances are the Eagles won’t have terrible luck 2 weeks in a row. The Rams meanwhile have Seattle coming up next week for a chance to seal the division title. The Rams could be looking ahead to next week and let Philly come in and beat them in LA this week.
Chiefs -4
Kansas City has lost 6 out of their last 7. They are on a full blown downhill spiral. They probably should be included in the group fighting for a top 5 draft pick, but because of their division are somehow sitting in first place in their division. Sunday is a must win for KC if they want to have a chance to win the division. Luckily for them the Oakland defense has been terrible this season and the Chiefs should be able to score at will. Earlier this season when these teams met the Raiders pulled out a win 31-30. Neither of these teams have been playing defense lately and I expect this game to be another shootout with the advantage to the Chiefs being home in Kansas City.
49ers +3
I took the Niners last week as the underdog and Jimmy G came through and pulled the upset. This week the Niners travel to Houston to take on a team who is still starting Tom Savage at QB and THE NINERS ARE STILL THE UNDERDOG IN THIS GAME. I can’t believe this line. Does Vegas think Deshaun Watson is still healthy? Like I said last week, the Niners have 5 games this season they have lost by 3 points or fewer. And also like I said last week, finally the Niners are playing in games where they have the advantage in the QB matchup. This is going to be a close game, and in a close game I’d much rather have Jimmy G than Tom Savage. Another huge advantage in close games is special teams, especially kickers. I don’t even know the name of the Texans kicker but I know he missed 2 kicks last week and blew his team’s chance to cover. The Niners meanwhile had veteran Robbie Gould who went 5 for 5 to win the game for his team. The Niners are going to have a chance to win this game and screw up their draft pick even more but if they don’t win they will at least cover the +3.
Record to date: 1-0 when Jimmy G is starting
Thank you to everyone for reading. We only have a few weeks left to enjoy football and come back next week for more NFL. Happy Week 14 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football.
Double COVERage 