Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the 16th straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.
"Beware of barking at Underdogs; don't fight with people who have nothing to lose" - Santa Claus.
Only 2 weeks left of regular season football and the playoff picture is becoming much clearer. Week 15 held the biggest matchup of the regular season with the Patriots traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The winner would most likely get home field advantage throughout the playoffs and drastically increase their odds of going to the Super Bowl. A huge game with huge implications, but instead of the game coming down to a Tom Brady Hail Mary or a last second field goal; all of America is left wondering what is or isn’t a catch. Pittsburgh had appeared to score the game winning TD, the points were taken off the board after a review showing the ball moved a centimeter and hit the ground after crossing the goal line. Two plays later, Big Ben throws an INT and the game is over. Now I was not angry at the time because I picked the Patriots -3 last week, but now I am furious.
How could the most important game of the year come down to such a stupid rule. Now the Patriots will most likely get home field advantage in the playoffs. And most likely the Patriots will play the Steelers again the New England. And most likely the Patriots will win and go to the Super Bowl, again. All because of some dumb rule that says if the ball even moves a centimeter as the receiver is catching the ball then its incomplete. Forget that the Steelers dropped an INT in the last drive that would have ended the game. Forget that Big Ben was too stupid to just spike the ball and go to OT and instead he threw a pick. The game should have been over because he caught the ball. This is what a majority of Americans believe, but what if nothing that happened in that game matters at all. What if the best team in the AFC isn’t the Patriots or the Steelers? Because here’s the reality, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense is good enough to get them to the Super Bowl are going to the Super Bowl.
This past weekend my brother and I flew to Florida to watch the Falcons and Bucs on Monday night football. As most of you know I’m a crazy Falcons fan, and much like Muslims are called to travel to Mecca at least once in their lifetime; I am called to travel to at least one Falcons game per year. Because the Falcons were playing in Tampa on Monday night we decided to drive to Jacksonville to watch the Jags take on the Texans on Sunday. Going into the Sunday I expected it to be a boring game. The Texans are on their 3rd string QB, and aside from Deandre Hopkins, have no one really interesting to watch.
I’ve been to a few NFL stadiums and with the way tickets are sold on the internet now, the average game you can expect anywhere from 15-30% of the fans to be for the opposing team (except for LA where where the opposing teams fans are so loud the home team can’t hear the snap count.) I figured Jacksonville would be about the same, especially since the Jaguars have been perennial losers for the past 20 years. Wow was I wrong, the game was 99.9% Jaguars fans besides one idiot in a JJ Watt jersey. The Jags fans were as fired up as I’ve ever seen a football stadium. I assumed since the Jags have never made a playoff run or won any significant playoff game ever their fans would be terrible. The last time the Jags made the playoffs the United States had never even had a black President yet. The Jags fans seemed so happy their team is finally good, they showed up to the stadium to give their team a real home field advantage. The Jags destroyed the Texans 45-7 and even with the game in hand the entire second half, no fans were leaving the stadium early. The place was still packed late into the 4th quarter with Jags fans celebrating the Jags first trip to the playoffs in over 10 years. I was totally buying into the idea of a Jags playoff run while Jags fans chanted “super bowl” in the 4th quarter. I really thought the Jags fans knew what they were talking about until some of them chanted MVP at Blake Bortles.
If you’ve been following this blog all season then you know I already liked the Jaguars for most of the year. I’ve picked them to cover more than any team in the NFL this year. What really opened my eyes before traveling to Jacksonville was watching their defense destroy the Steelers in Pittsburgh, a team many people were picking to go to the Super Bowl before the season. What allowed the Jaguars to win in Pittsburgh is exactly the reason the Jags have a chance to win any game against any team in the NFL, their defense is the best in the league. Maybe not just the best defense in the league, but one of the best defenses in recent memory. Years from now we might look back and say 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and 2017 Jaguars. The nickname Sacksonville almost seems too perfect because the Jags front 7 is loaded with Calais Campbell, and a ton of other great players because they play for the Jaguars so no one has ever really heard of them. Just remember this, these guys you’ve never heard of are mostly top draft picks. After years of being terrible the Jags have finally taken advantage of their top picks and put together an all time defense. Aside from their front 7 that leads the NFL in sacks, Jacksonville also has the best cornerback duo in the league and its not even close. Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye, are two of the top 5 corners in the league and you probably didn’t know that because again they play in Jacksonville. Now I could list of bunch of stats and numbers that suggest the Jags defense is the best in the league, but just know this. If you switched this Jags teams defense’s jerseys with the Steelers, we would have already enducted them each into the hall of fame. Instead of getting the treatment like the Steel Curtain, the Teal Curtain continues to not get the respect they deserve.
People who follow the NFL know the Jags have a good defense, but so what? You have to score points to win games right? So have have the Jags been able to outscore teams this season? QB Blake Bortles is having a career year. For his entire career Blake Bortles has been a punchline. Even some analysts said Bortles is worse than every backup in the NFL. Even with all the criticism, Blake Bortles is having a better year than 80% of QBs in the NFL.
What is even more amazing about Bortles season is he is throwing to no name receivers. In the past Bortles has has thrown to such huge names like Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. Bortles could have had a number one receiver in Justin Blackmon but it’s tough to catch passes when you’re so drunk you see 3 different balls coming at you. This season Bortles is working with absolute no namers. He threw 2 TDs last Sunday to a guy who was literally sleeping in car a few months ago. Every in football was ready to bury Blake Bortles at the end of the bench when the season started and he’s responded with the best season of his career. The last month his team is undefeated and he is leading the NFL in TDs competition % and yards per attempt. Even with Bortles eye popping numbers and undefeated record he still gets no respect. After the 45-7 win over the Texans last Sunday, Jadavon Clowney said Bortles is still trash. No respect at all! Jags fans responded by mailing trash cans to the Texans facility. Blake Bortles has even combined with Tom Brady for 13 Pro bowls 4 Super Bowl MVPs and 2 NFL MVPs. And even then no respect. Blake Bortles and the Jags are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL. No matter how great they are, they still get no respect.
The Jags have the defense to make a super bowl run. Blake Bortles is playing well enough to get them there. Maybe after the Jags make their playoff run people will start taking the Teal team in Florida seriously. If you blindly looked at Bortles number from this season not knowing it was his stats you might think they were Ben Roethlisberger. If the Jaguars defense switched jerseys with the 2015 Broncos I don’t think anyone would notice. Its the Jags who are the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC, not the Steelers. And they might just have the fire power to take down anyone.
Week 16 NFL Picks
All lines used from the Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest
Seahawks +4.5
Browns +6.5
Jaguars -4
Christmas Special: 7 Point Tease, Steelers -2 Eagles -2
Seahawks +4.5
Last week I took the Seahawks as -2 point favorites at home over the Rams and the proceeded to get demolished 42-7, it was over by halftime. The Seahawks looked like a team that had given up on the season, not a team that was fighting to make the playoffs. The media has let the Seahawks have it this week, proclaiming them done and finished. On the flip side Jared Goff and Sean McVay of the Rams have been media darlings all week after slaying the mighty Seahawks in Seattle.
The Seahawks go to Dallas this week to play the Cowboys who are getting back their best player Zeke Elliot off a suspension he really doesn’t want to talk about. It seems obvious that the Cowboys should easily win this game as they are fighting with Seattle for this final playoff spot. When anything seems obvious in the NFL, the unexpected usually happens. I love the fact the media burred Seattle this week. I love that the majority of Vegas bets coming in on this game are for the Cowboys. When Russell Wilson’s back is up against the wall he always goes down swinging. The reality is this line is 2 points too high. The Cowboys only won by the width of an index card last week against a Raiders team who is not very good. Seattle looked really bad last week but I am willing to die on this Seahawks hill. Give me the better QB in this matchup, fighting for his season getting a few extra points.
Browns +6.5
We’ve been down this Browns rode a few times this season. Most every sports fan realizes the Browns are a terrible laughing stock of a franchise but I don’t think the average football fan realizes just how terrible of a team the Browns are. The Browns have only covered this season 3 times. ONLY 3 TIMES THEY HAVE COVERED THE SPREAD ALL SEASON. The Browns have been underdogs in almost every game all year and they can’t even keep games close enough to cover. But this week is different. THIS IS THE BROWNS SUPER BOWL. The last time the Browns actually won a game was in Week 16 when they played on Christmas Eve in a similar spot. This week they are at Chicago where the Bears have no business being almost a full TD favorite over anyone in football. Next week the Browns are at Pittsburgh with almost no chance of winning. Its now or never for the Browns if they want to not go 0-16 this year. One last chance for Hue Jackson to match last years 1-15 record. Please at least keep it close Cleveland.
Jaguars -4
The Jags are flying across the country to take on the hottest team in football, the 4-10 San Francisco 49ers. Ever since Jimmy Garroppolo has taken over as the starting QB for the Niners they have looked great. I’ve picked Jimmy G and the Niners every week since he’s started and felt very confident in the fact he hasn’t lost a game as a starter in the NFL. That’s all about to change this week. Sure I love picking Jimmy G when he’s playing the Bears or the Texans, but HE’S ABOUT TO PLAY THE BEST TEAM IN FOOTBALL. Sure Garoppolo has been great but the Niners really don’t want to win this last 2 games. They need to put CJ Bethard back in to get the best draft pick possible. The Jags need to win their last 2 games to still have a shot at number one seed in the AFC playoffs. I still love Jimmy G, but the Jags defense should shut him down and control this one easily.
Christmas Special: 7 Point Tease, Steelers -2 Eagles -2
What could be a better way to spend time with your loved ones on this special day than to take a 2 team teaser with two teams who really need wins to keep pace in the playoffs and really need a win. Steelers kick the day off in the afternoon and by the time you’ve already seen a Christmas Story twice you can watch TJ Yates try to not shoot his eye out against the Steelers. In the evening when you’ve had a full turkey dinner and a few glasses of egg nog you can sit on the couch feeling groggy and watch the groggy Raiders try to look like they care about keeping Jack Del Rio’s job in Philly. Both these games could get ugly so why not take advantage on this beautiful holiday and remember the true spirit of the season. Hitting the final legs of some NFL teasers.
Record to date: 20-24-2
Thank you to everyone for reading. We only have one week left to enjoy regular season football. Merry Christmas and Happy Week 16 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football.
Double COVERage 