Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the next 4 months Welcome to NFL Sunday.
"If you want to be taken seriously, be consistent" - Bob Wyile
As the weather cools down and the sprinkler heads water grass on an empty field while Liev Schreiber talks in the background for an intro to a hard knocks episode, these signs can point to only one thing; Football is back! Its almost as if a small trigger in my brain goes off and sends a message that says “hey there’s something to look forward too besides endless baseball games again.” Ever since I was 6 years old I would get excited for this time of year, to smell the fresh cut grass and hear an old white man yell about how stretching didn’t win world war 2. This time of year is special, its something you can always count on. Much like taxes, or Ray Lewis talking too long any time he’s given a microphone, football is something that is always consistent. Every year no matter what life throws at you, there will always be football in September, and it feels good to know when something is consistent. For my entire 20 year football watching career I’ve been able to find comfort in the things that stay the same. Such as Bill Belichick hating the media, a Manning brother making a dad joke. or RG3 being injured. This season however is starting to feel different.
I started paying attention to football right around the turn of the century. I’ve only ever known a world where the Browns and the Jets suck. No matter what else is happening in the league I can always count on the Browns and the Jets throwing out some terrible QB, winning between 4-5 games, combined, and missing the playoffs. Being bad for a season or 2 is not uncommon in the NFL but this habitual losing is astonishing. 2017 was across the board typical Browns and Jets. Cleveland started Deshone Kizer all season, who said he was a cross between Cam Newton and Tom Brady but was more like Cam Newton if he threw left handed and Tom Brady if he were brain dead. The Browns almost won a game or 2 but ended the season 0-for.
The Jets on the other hand have at least seen some success in the past decade. Back to back years the Jets played in the AFC Championship and even beat the Patriots in the playoffs. However even when the Jets team was capable of winning a championship, their QB was hotdog eating loser Mark Sanchez. If only they had a QB they would be contenders. The story has continued for the Jets since Joe Namath was QB. Unlike the Browns the Jets somehow manage to win a few games every year with a terrible QB. Also unlike the Browns they are never able to get a top draft pick. Last season the Jets were set up perfectly to tank and contend with the Browns for a top pick. Like usual the Jets messed around and won few enough games that they were never seriously in the playoff contention, but enough to take them out of the top 5 draft picks. The Jets even suck at losing!
Being a football fan sometimes is like watching an old movie on cable. You flip through the channels and catch 20 minutes, thinking you might have seen this one before. After watching long enough you realize, you have seen this movie before and finally remember how it ends. This could not be more true for Browns and Jets fans. Every season begins with hope, a new QB, coach, or player promising to lead their beloved team back to the playoffs. And season after season that hope quickly diminishes as their team goes back to being the laughing stock of the league. We all know how the movie ends and yet we don’t change the channel and watch something else.
Yet despite the habitual failures that are the Browns and Jets franchise, this season feels different. The Jets traded up in the draft and took QB Sam Darnold out of USC. Turnover prone QBs from USC have been bad for the Jets in the past but Darnold seems different. He lit up teams in the preseason and convinced the coaching staff to trade away Teddy Bridgewater to New Orleans. The Browns hype has been even more well documented thanks to HBO. With number one overall pick Baker Mayfield, and Tyrod Taylor, the Browns have not one but two decent QB options. The Browns have been bet more than any other team in Vegas during the preseason. Their odds to make the playoffs have gone from 10/1 to +350. Their over under win total has gone from 4.5 up to 6. Regardless of if either of these teams will have a good season people believe they will!
Here we are on the eve of yet another NFL season. Every teams fanbase has hope but these losers should be careful. It seems like both the Browns and the Jets are finally set up for success after years of habitual failure. Their optimism could turn into years of successful playoff runs with their franchise QBs… BUT if my years of watching football has taught me anything, its that there is a direct correlation between playing a violent sport like football and head injuries; and the Browns and Jets suck every year. Maybe 17 weeks from now we will see a league where the Browns and Jets are contending to make the playoffs. Or maybe they’ll both take a dump on the field like they’ve done for the last few decades. I certainly hope its the latter. Football, like people, love consistence. And there’s nothing more consistent than the Browns and Jets losing.
Week 1 NFL Picks
All Lines used from Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest
Seahawks +3
Cardinals -120
Chiefs +3.5
Seahawks +3
The Denver Broncos have spent the last 2 years letting a super bowl winning defense waste away with Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch playing QB. After 2 years out of the playoffs the Broncos finally again have hope with free agent Case Keenum taking over at QB. The Broncos look primed to make a run to the playoffs again, and clearly Vegas respects the Broncos offseason moves making them a favorite at home. The Seahawks look poised to finally have a down year after missing the playoffs last year. Seattle has been dominate in the NFC the last 5 years and finally look to have an average year. The Seahawks roster may be average but they are still dominate at two positions, QB and Middle Linebacker, two of the most important positions in football. Russel Wilson and Bobby Wagner are arguable each in the top 5 of their respective positions. Wilson and Wagner should be able to put the Hawks on their backs this season for a few wins and I like their experience against new look Case Keenum.
Cardinals -120
The Arizona Cardinals come into the season with very low expectations, most numbers and previews have picked the Cardinals to finish last in the NFC West. However the Washington R-Words were also picked to finish last in their division. Two last place teams makes for a boring game but the game has a confusing line that is nearly even. Both teams do have positives to look forward too. The Cardinals have NFL sack leader Chandler Jones on defense, and return stud RB David Johnson on offense. Washington traded mediocre for mediocre this offseason with Kirk Cousins leaving for Minnesota and Alex Smith coming in from Kansas City. The R-Words have to travel across the country to Arizona on Sunday. The Cardinals may very well not win a lot of games this season but what better week to get a W than week 1 against a weak opponent.
Chiefs +3.5
All aboard the Patrick Mahomes hype train! The kid who can throw a football 90 yards is a 3.5 point underdog in his first game?! There are a lot of reasons to love the Chiefs in this spot, in the last 3 seasons Kansas city is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog of more than 3 points. Andy Reid is great ATS coming off a bye (and what bigger bye week is there than the offseason?). The game is technically a home game for the Chargers but their LA soccer stadium should be about 50% red. On top of all that the Chiefs offense is loaded. Kareem Hunt led the NFL in rushing yards last year, Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins are both solid WRs and Travis Kelce is a top 3 TE. Kansas City may be one of the most overlooked teams heading into the season, and they will take advantage of the opportunity to pick up a big division win in week 1.
Record to Date: 0-0 (just like every other team)
Thank you for reading. Happy Football season to you and yours.
Double COVERage 