Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the 5th straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.
We are 1/4 of the way through the NFL season and the league is finally starting to take shape. Each week we learn a little more about each team and try our best to predict where they will finish at the end of the year. After 4 weeks we know at least something about each team. Here’s some things I know are 100% true and will not change.
Patrick Mahomes is the greatest QB of all time
Last Monday night the Kansas City Chiefs were down 10 in the 4th quarter playing in a hostel environment. It looked like their undefeated season was going to come to an end. Patrick Mahomes carved up the Broncos defense, scored two 4th quarter TDs and even completed a pass left handed. The Chiefs remained undefeated and Patrick Mahomes has jumped up the leaderboard of MVP candidates. Mahomes has been nothing short of incredible in his first 4 games this season throwing for 1,200 yards, 14 TDs and 0 ints. The question is no longer is Patrick Mahomes the greatest QB in the league, but is he the greatest of all time? There absolutely no way Mahomes slows down at the pace he is currently at. It’s not like he’s playing for a coach who has been known to start out the season hot then falter in the playoffs when it actually matters, not a chance! At this point the rest of the league can only hope and pray that Mahomes decides to take a year or two off to play baseball cause there is not stopping this kid. It’s not like NFL defenses have historically caught up to young QBs games once they see some tape on them. Most defenses just hope their teams offense can outscore Mahomes! Which is nearly impossible, Mahomes is going to win the MVP, throw for 56 TDs and 0 ints. And there isn’t a thing the rest of the league can do to stop it. Mahomes only real flaw is he sounds like Kermit the frog.
The Rams are definitely for sure 100% going to win the Super Bowl
We are going to play 12 more weeks of football plus the playoffs because its the American way but honestly we don’t really need to waste our time playing the games. The Rams might as well be given the Lombardi trophy now. The 4-0 Rams are not just the best team in football but they are already the super bowl champs. They clearly are an unbeatable team, every game they’ve played so far has been a rout. The NFL has NEVER seen a team start off the season really hot in September and then cool off before the playoffs start. Similar to Mahomes success there seems to be no end in sight for the Rams. If only opposing defenses were able to watch film and catch onto what McVay and company are doing. The Rams offense has been unstoppable with a 22 year old QB and a star WR who was traded by 2 super bowl winning coaches. The Rams defense signed a few players who’s names people have heard before so they must be good. There is absolutely no way a young coach with a young QB and a defense full of guys who weren’t on the team last year end up losing in the playoffs when the games get tight. Absolutely no way. Hand the Rams the Trophy now.
Roughing the Passer calls are ruining football
As much as I love watching the NFL every second of every Sunday and 3 hours on Monday and Thursday nights. I have almost had to stop watching this season because the refs and NFL rules committees are ruining the game with these soft rules of roughing the passer. Sure it’s still football and there has always been bad calls and roughing the passer is only called a few times a game but when its called it hurts me so bad I would almost rather be watching soccer. I don’t even understand why they want to keep the QBs healthy in the first place. Watching Aaron Rodgers last season get his collar bone snapped was one of the most enjoyable moments of the season for me. Nothing would make me happier than watching some defender knock Tom Brady into retirement with a late hit to the head but NOOO. The NFL won’t allow these defenders to even get a couple late shots to the body in any more. I’m sick and tired of the softness of “player safety” and “wanting our players to live a long and healthy live after football.” I may just give up on the NFL and their softness and watch something with more realistic action like the WWE
NFL Week 5 Picks
All Lines used from Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest
Dolphins +6
Raiders +5.5
Seahawks +7.5
Dolphins +6
Miami started the season with a surprising 3 wins and the 22 people in Florida who care about Dolphins football were really excited. Then last Sunday their older brother the Patriots smacked them around 38-7. Clearly the Dolphins were much more overrated than their 3-0 record showed, but the overreaction to last Sunday’s game has the Dolphins as almost a TD underdog at Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals did pull out a win last Sunday against the Falcons JV defense and that could also contribute to this line being as high as it is. The Dolphins losing by 30+ on the road is a tough spot to go back on the road, but… Teams on a second road game in a row after losing by 30+ are 40-19-1 historically ATS in their next game (probably because those teams are normally big underdogs.) The Dolphins may not be an undefeated team but they also aren’t as bad as they looked last Sunday against the Patriots. Like most teams they are somewhere in between good and terrible, and that’s enough to cover in Cincinnati.
Raiders +5.5
The Raiders go to LA this Sunday in a game between 2 teams who are not as bad as their records appear. The Raiders are 1-3 coming off their first win at home over the Browns. The Chargers are 2-2 but have lost to the Rams and the Chiefs maybe the best 2 teams in the league. 2 reasons I really like the Raiders getting the extra points. First they are better than a 1-3 team. They’ve been ahead in the 4th quarter in every game this season and have a great record ATS. The second reason is why I really like the Raiders. This game is a home game for the Chargers and the line is set as is normally would be. But this game will be a crowd of 95% Raiders fans. The Chargers do not have an actual home field advantage. This week at practice the Chargers had crowd noise pumped in to prepare for the black hole to take over their home stadium Sunday. It is a sad day for the 12 people in LA who care about the Chargers but Many more people in LA are still Raiders fans. I really like the Raiders getting the extra points in a situation where the entire crowd will be rooting for them.
Seahawks +7.5
The Seahawks are hosting the Rams Sunday who I already decided have won the Super Bowl. The Rams are coming off a Thursday game so they have extra rest. Last season the Rams went into Seattle and absolutely demoralized the Seahawks 42-7. So why would anyone think the Seahawks could win against the Rams? First Seattle is still the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Seahawks have only had one home game this season and they beat the Cowboys easily. Second the Seahawks have not been this big of a home underdog since the 2011 playoffs when Marshawn Lynch ran through the Saints and won the game outright. Third, last season after the seahawks season appeared to be lost they were almost a TD underdog against the super bowl favorite Eagles, and the Seahawks won outright. Any given Sunday anything can happen, and every NFL Sunday something weird happens. The Seahawks will show up for this game and keep it within a TD.
Double COVERage 