BartSauce

Bart’s Best Bets Week 13: A Thanksgiving Surprise

Holy cow, it’s already week 13?! Where has the time gone? We had ourselves a nice 3-2 record last weekend and hope to continue the success this weekend. Rivalry week is super fun to watch, but so tough to handicap because there are a ton of external factors to consider. I didn’t find a ton of value in the slate this week, but I think I found a few gems. A lot of gut feels this week and not a lot of research, but that’s the way I like it. Enough nonsense, let’s get to the picks.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go, Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Friday, November 24th

Navy (+5) @ Houston

I watched the entire Navy v. Notre Dame game last weekend and was very impressed with how Navy controlled the majority of the game. They obviously didn’t win, but they covered the 20 point spread and it was never in doubt. Houston has been unpredictable all year, which is why I’ve stayed away from them, but I think this a good time to pick against them. Service academies always play with pride and discipline, and I think that will put them over the top in this one. Give me Navy +4.5.

Saturday, November 25th

Ohio State (-12) @ Michigan

Ever since getting crushed by Iowa, Ohio State has been on fire and I think they continue to keep that up. Urban Meyer is on a mission to get to the College Football Playoff and I would be very scared for any team in his way. I’m not sure what Meyer’s record in November is, but I bet it’s dang good. I consider Michigan dead after their last stand last week against Wisconsin. Their quarterback play has just been getting worse as the season has gone on. I love Harbaugh, but I think he’s already looking towards next season, and Ohio State still has a ton to play for. I have an odd feeling Ohio State is going to win their way into the CFP and this game will be a big reason why. The Buckeyes will roll in this one.

UTEP @ UAB (-20.5)

I’m sorry guys, but I’m addicted to the UAB Blazers and I cannot quit them, especially after last week’s stinker against Florida. UTEP is 0-11 this season and they definitely aren’t getting their first win here. UAB bounces back big here and wins by 30+.

Alabama @ Auburn Under 47.5

I really wanted to pick the spread in this game, but I think they have it right on at Alabama -4.5, so I needed to pick something else here. I took a long look at the total and decided I like the under 47.5. These are two great football teams with excellent defenses. They both had their cupcake week 12 game last week to get healthy and focused for this game. Both teams have been preparing for this game for two weeks now and I think that helps the defense way more than it helps the offense. Points will be at a premium in this one. I think this game ends with a score of 24-17 and I’ll let you pick the winner.

Wisconsin @ Minnesota (+17.5)

Ah yes, the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, my favorite Big Ten Trophy Game. This is the ultimate “I’ve got an odd feeling about this one” game. Wisconsin is coming into this game undefeated and are rolling opponents lately. Minnesota just got rocked by Northwestern 39-0. So why am I picking Minnesota in this one? I have no idea, I guess my love for PJ Fleck is blinding me from being a logical human being. Feel free to fade me here and take Wisconsin, but something is telling me that Minnesota is going to win this game and ruin Wisconsin’s year. Seriously though, how epic would it be to see Coach PJ running off the field with Paul Bunyan’s Axe? Gives me goosebumps just thinking about it. ROW THE BOAT!

Bart’s Best Bets YTD: 32-26-2 (24-20-2 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 13 of Bart’s Best Bets. We had a nice 3-2 week last week, but that doesn’t matter anymore. We’re on to Week 13. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT Thanksgiving weekend of family, friends, and football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 12 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 12: The UAB Blazers

Boy, did we have ourselves a nice weekend or what? I told you The U is officially back! Michigan State put up a stinker in the first game, but I swept the rest of the board for a great 4-1 Week 11 of College Football. Here’s the deal guys, my life is getting very busy and will stay very busy for the rest of the college football season. Because of this, my blog is going to be short and to the point. I promise to stay committed to providing you with my five favorite picks for the weekend. I love this blog and I love you guys. Here we go.

Saturday, November 18th

UCF (-14) @ Temple

One of my biggest regrets so far this year is not making UCF a blog pick yet. I am definitely late to the party, but I am finally taking UCF in week 12. UCF has the best scoring offense in the nation. That’s a good enough reason right? Temple might put up a fight for awhile, but I think Scott Frost and the UCF Knights will pull away in the 2nd half of this game and win by 20+ points.

Kentucky @ Georgia (-21.5)

It’s officially basketball season in Kentucky and the Wildcat fans have forgotten about the football team. Georgia is coming off a tough loss against a great Auburn team and needs a large win to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation. I did a little trend searching and I found some nice ones for this game. Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games on grass. Georgia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games coming off a loss. I love all those trends, and I love Georgia to put up a big number against Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.

UAB (+10.5) @ Florida

I had this game picked before the line was posted. I am fully addicted to the UAB Blazers. They have won three straight games and are on fire. On the other side, the Florida Gators have lost five straight games and fired their coach a couple games ago. The only thing going for Florida in this game is that it is a home game for them, and I honestly don’t think that will help them here. Florida has quit on the season and this is UAB’s superbowl. UAB +10.5 is one of my favorite picks of all time. I would highly consider putting a nice “sprinkle” on the UAB moneyline here.

Navy (+18) @ Notre Dame

18 points is way too many points to give to this Navy football team. They are just a team that you aren’t going to win. Notre Dame could control this whole game and only win by 10. Navy runs an offense that is so hard to prepare for, and Notre Dame has really only had this week to focus on it since they were so locked into Miami last week. I know Notre Dame is coming off a tough loss and has a lot to prove on Saturday, but I don’t see them beating Navy by more than two touchdowns. Navy is a very discipline team that does not defeat themselves. I think they put up a good fight.

UCLA @ USC Over 71.5

I’m going to be real honest with you guys right now. It’s currently way past my bed time, so I can’t really think straight. One thing I do know is that I LOVE PAC-12 OVERS! I didn’t pick a total last weekend so I feel obligated to have one this week. USC clinched the Pac-12 South last week in their win against Colorado, so I don’t know how motivated their defense will be. UCLA doesn’t have much going for them except for their quarterback who is trying to make a case for a top 5 NFL draft pick. Oh yeah, USC has a pretty good QB as well. This one looks and smells like a high scoring affair. I’m happy to take the over 71.5 here.

Bart’s Best Bets YTD: 29-24-2 (21-18-2 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 12 of Bart’s Best Bets. We had a GREAT 4-1 week last week, but that doesn’t matter anymore. We’re on to Week 12. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 11 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 11: Is The U Officially Back?

It’s crazy to think it’s Week 11 already! Time really does fly when you’re having fun. I had a nice little 3-1-1 week last week and I’m really happy for the few of you guys that actually trusted me on UAB and got rewarded for it. Alright, that’s enough bragging for the blog, let’s get to something that’s been bothering me. You what really stinks? Being so right about something, but having absolutely nothing to show for it. That’s how I feel about the Miami Hurricanes this year. We were on The U before anybody else this year (literally in June). The Double COVERage team had a strong feeling they would be at least a ten win football team and win the Coastal Division of the ACC. We decided put our money where our mouths are and made a healthy wager on Miami over 9 wins. I wrote about it in my first blog of the year and we were so excited to watch the Hurricanes all year long. They looked rusty in the first game against Bethune-Cookman, but the future was bright.

Then the Hurricane (literally) hit, which caused them to cancel the Arkansas State game that would have made them 2-0 and well on their way to over 9 wins. This also cancelled our season long bet on Miami. So here we are, Miami is 8-0 with three games left and all of the sudden is in the College Football Playoff Consideration. This weeks game against Notre Dame is basically a playoff game. Winner stays (for now), and the loser says hello to a top New Years Six bowl.

We won’t be getting any money for being on Miami before anyone else this year, but that doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that my loyal readers of Bart’s Best Bets know our love for Miami and some of you even followed. Just another reason why you guys are the best. Let’s have another killer week, shall we?

Saturday, November 11th

Michigan State (+17) @ Ohio State

What do both Ohio State and Michigan State have in common? They both beat Penn State at home in the last two weeks. Ohio State beat them by 1 point in a thriller and Michigan State beat them by 3 in a game that lasted 6 hours thanks to a weather delay. This may be a trap, but why is Ohio State still getting this much credit? I feel like the Buckeyes were CFP or bust and they have officially been busted. While Michigan State has outperformed their low expectations from the beginning of the season. Michigan State is hungry, and I’m not sure how much motivation Ohio State has left after that stomping Iowa put on them. I get the Horseshoe is a really tough environment to play in, but this is a morning game and I could see Ohio State sleep walking into this one. I think Michigan State will keep this one close and make it interesting.

Purdue @ Northwestern (-3.5)

This is more of a feel pick than anything. Northwestern has won four straight games and finally looks like the Northwestern team everyone thought they would be this year. Purdue started out hot, but have struggled that past three weeks. Lost to Rutgers and Nebraska and then finally beat Illinois (worst team in Big Ten) last week. Unfortunately, they lost their best quarterback in the process. Northwestern has an opportunity to finally win a game in regulation for the first time since the Middle of October and I think they take advantage. Look for the Wildcats to get out on top early and never look back.

UAB (+8) @ UTSA

If you guys aren’t addicted to the UAB Blazers by now, then I don’t know how to help you. They completely crushed the Rice Owls last week and are now on a two game winning streak going into San Antonio. On the other side, UTSA is on a two game losing streak and has 2 less conference wins than UAB. The Blazers are the better team in this matchup no matter where the game is being played. The big boys in Vegas either know something I don’t or just haven’t caught on the UAB yet. UAB getting more than a touchdown is a complete steal and I would even consider sprinkling a little on the moneyline.

Notre Dame @ Miami (+3.5)

This is 100% a pick from my heart and not my head. I completely understand if you guys don’t touch this one or even fade me and go with ND. Both teams are playing at their best right now, but I can’t get over how good Miami’s defense is. They are incredible at creating turnovers at the perfect time. The Hurricane’s offense leaves a lot to desire, but I think the defense will put them in good positions to score in this game. Like I said in the intro, this is truly a win or go home game in terms of playoff contention for both teams. The College Gameday crew will be there. It’s a night game. If Miami wins this game, I think a lot of people will be saying they are officially back. Just remember, the DoubleCOVERage crew was saying it back in June. Canes by a field goal as time expires.

Wyoming (+3) @ Air Force

I’m not sure why this game sticks out to me, but it does. Wyoming has been playing very well since the end of September. The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 games and that one loss was by 7 points at Boise State. Air Force got shut out at home by Army last weekend. Wyoming struggles to put points on the board most of the time, but their defense has been winning games for them. Wyoming wants to make this game a defensive struggle and I think it will be. Give me the Cowboys in a sloppy and low scoring game.

Bart’s Best Bets YTD: 25-23-2 (17-17-2 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 11 of Bart’s Best Bets. I was very pleased with my 3-1-1 week last week, but I am trying to stay focused on the task at hand. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 10 picks! He’s going to heat up, I promise!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 10: My Favorite Pick of the Year

It’s finally November and the College Football Playoff Committee came out with their first set of rankings on Tuesday. I wasn’t surprised by the teams in the top four or the order they were in. Some people think it’s ridiculous that Georgia is ranked ahead of Alabama, but if you compare the resume of both teams, Georgia definitely has the best in the country. Is Georgia a better football team than Alabama? Absolutely not. If they were to play this week Alabama would be favored by anywhere from 7-10 points, and I’d take Alabama in a heart beat. This thing is far from over and the rankings this week don’t matter much in the grand scheme of things because a lot can and will happen even this weekend to shake things up.

I don’t know about everyone else, but I was very happy Alabama was ranked #2 in the country this week. I was even happier the team ahead of them was one of their conference rivals. So why does any of this matter when making my picks for this week? Here’s the simple answer: We get a pissed off Alabama Crimson Tide football team against LSU, that’s why. Let’s go.

Saturday, November 4th

Auburn (-15) @ Texas A&M

I had a big swing and miss on Texas A&M last weekend, so I’m ready to make up for it this week. The Aggies got beat 35-14 last weekend against Mississippi State and lost their starting quarterback in the process. Auburn is well rested coming off their bye week and is ready for a revenge game (lost 29-16 last year). I usually wouldn’t give this many points with a road team, but I think Auburn is a solid play here. Auburn still has a lot to play for and Kevin Sumlin could already be half way out the door in College Station. The Tigers are the better team with a better coach and are rested and healthy. Auburn wins by 20+.

Rice @ UAB (-11)

As you guys know by now, when I am looking at lines on Monday afternoon, I am only looking for numbers that really pop out to me. This is a pure example of a number popping out to me. Rice is a bottom five team in the FBS and UAB is one of the more underrated teams to bet on due to their lack of exposure. Here are some nice stats: Rice is 1-7 overall and 2-6 ATS this year. UAB is 5-3 overall and 6-2 ATS this year. Rice is on a six game losing streak and UAB is coming off a very nice 18 point win over Southern Miss. UAB at home against one of the worst football teams in the nation. I’ll take the Blazers by at least two touchdowns.

Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas Over 59.5

Here’s another odd game to pick. Very slim pickings this week, deal with it. Here’s a couple thing I know, Arkansas is not a good defensive football team and Coastal Carolina is bad at everything. I honestly have no idea how this game is going to go, but I think both teams will give up points. I think Arkansas will put up at least 45 points against the Chanticleers. That means Coastal Carolina only has to score a couple garbage time TD’s, which I think they will. Vegas has no idea what is going to happen in this game and I think we can take advantage of this low total.

Virginia @ Miami Under 50

Tell me if you’ve heard this before: I absolutely love this pick. First off, I can’t wait to watch this game. Two very good teams playing the best their best football of the year. Quick Question: What are these two teams best at? DEFENSE! So why is this total set at 50? I have no idea, because I think this will be a field position game throughout with a lot of punting. I have a feeling this game will end well under 50 at 20-17 and I’ll let you pick the winner. (Go Canes!)

LSU @ Alabama (-21)

Are you guys ready for my favorite pick of the year? There’s so many different reasons to love Alabama in this spot, but I will try to keep it to a minimum. First reason, Alabama was ranked as the #2 team in the first CFP rankings of the season. To make it even worse, the team ahead of them is Georgia, another member of the SEC. Yikes. Second reason, Alabama is coming off a bye week, so they are well rested and extremely prepared for LSU. Third reason, stats: Alabama is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a bye week and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 November games. Finally, LSU is 0-4 ATS in the last four games against Alabama. So we have a pissed off Nick Saban, at home, off a bye, against a team that lost to the Troy Trojans on their homecoming? (People don’t forget) Yeah, give me Alabama by 30+ points. Sorry Coach O, have an extra bowl of gumbo to ease the pain.

Bart’s Best Bets YTD: 22-22-1 (16-16-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 10 of Bart’s Best Bets. I had a below average 2-3 week last week and am officially right at .500. It could be worse, but like I’ve been saying all year, there’s still a lot of season left. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 9 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 9: Staying Focused

Well, nothing exciting really happened last weekend (except my first push of the year). There were more blowouts than there were upsets. I think we did find out some valuable information though. Penn State and Notre Dame are for real (at least for another week) and USC is exactly who we thought they were: Fake. I shouldn’t be disappointed with how Michigan played, but I kind of am. I understand that Michigan has zero offense, but I figured the defense would at least slow Penn State down and make it a decent game. I feel like college football season is finally serious, and teams are ready to make the final push. There are some big time games this week, and I have a feeling there will be craziness in the top 10, but I have no idea where it’s going to happen. So I’m just trying to stay focused and find the best value out there. Let us begin.

Saturday, October 28th

Penn State (+7) @ Ohio State

Is this a trap? Probably, and I’m falling right into it. I wish they would have scheduled this game for primetime instead of the afternoon because this is by far the game I’m most excited for this week. Ohio State and Penn State are playing their best football right and I don’t think this game will disappoint. I could throw a bunch of stats and trends out for this game, but none of that really matters. Penn State has the best player in this game (and in the country) in Saquon Barkley and I think this Trace McSorely guy is a very good quarterback. Penn State also has a better defense than Ohio State. Sure, Ohio State is the home team and they are coming off a bye week. Penn State has the momentum and the better players, I’m taking Penn State +7 and maybe even considering putting a little “sprinkle” on the moneyline.

Missouri @ UConn (+14)

Yikes, these are two bad teams, no one is going to watch this game (not even me). So why are you picking this game, BartSauce? I am picking this game because I find a TON of value in UConn getting double digits at home. The Huskies have won two straight games and seem to have a lot of momentum and confidence coming into this game. Missouri is in the SEC, which is a way tougher conference than AAC. They are also coming off a 68-21 win over Idaho. I believe that win and the fact Missouri are in the SEC is why they are favored by 13 here. Here’s the truth, Missouri is a really bad football team, no matter what conference they are in. UConn is at home and has momentum. The Huskies may not win this game, but I think they will keep it close for sure.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (+2)

A home team getting points, my favorite. This is the most underrated game of the weekend. These are two above average SEC teams that nobody really cares about because they aren’t named Georgia or Alabama. Texas A&M is coming off a bye week and has had two weeks to prepare for the high octane Mississippi State offense. Both of these teams are 5-2 but they couldn’t be more different. MSU’s two losses are both blowout losses to Georgia and Auburn. A&M’s two losses are a one point loss to UCLA in week 1 (remember that?), and an 8 point loss to Alabama. Those are two embarrassing losses versus two not so bad losses. Put all of that and add in the home-field advantage A&M has and I like the Aggies to win this one outright. So I will gladly take the points.

Nebraska @ Purdue Under 51

Here’s a stat for you: Nebraska has scored 17 and 14 points in the last two games. Purdue has scored 12 and 9 points the last two games. When I first saw this total on Monday it was at 49.5 and I immediately thought: “I love the unders in this game”. Well, I just checked the total again (Wednesday) and the total is at 51, and I immediately thought: “It’s a little fishy the total keeps going up, but I love the unders even more”. I’m not sure how this game is going to go in terms of the winner, but I have a very good feeling the total score will stay under 51.

UNLV @ Fresno State (-21)

Well I hit a Mountain West game to finish off last weekend (Thanks, Wyoming), so I want to go back to that conference for another week! Here’s the deal, UNLV is a bottom 10 team in the FBS. They are 2-5 and their two wins are Idaho (bad) and San Jose State (even worse). They also lost to Howard (yikes). I don’t care about any of that though, because I absolutely love Fresno State and here’s why: First, the Bulldogs are 6-0-1 ATS so far this year. They are 5-2 straight up and their two losses are to Washington and Alabama, but they covered the spread in both of those games! They have won 4 straight games and beat every team in their conference so far by 17 or more points, including San Diego State last weekend. Fresno State is a confident and hungry football team that has a legitimate shot a playing for the Mountain West Championship and UNLV has all but given up on the season. I love Fresno giving 3+ touchdowns because I think they’ll win this thing by 30 or more.

Bart’s Best Bets YTD: 20-19-1 (15-13-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 9 of Bart’s Best Bets. I had an average 2-2-1 week last week and am still hovering over .500, but there’s still a lot of season left. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 8 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 8: MACtion is Back!

Ahhhh, finally, Bart’s Best Bets finally had a good week last week. We went 4-1 thanks to a super nice backdoor cover by the Minnesota Gophers. That PJ Fleck guy just refuses to give up, and his career ATS record reflects that (I have no idea what it is, but I’m assuming it’s good).

I’m happy that I’m back on track, but it’s important to keep focus on the road ahead. This week is going to be a little different than others. I have mostly been Power 5 Conference heavy for the first seven weeks of this blog. After looking at the board, there is not much I like in the major conferences this week. So I am going to turn to the smaller conferences, because that’s where the real value is at. In particular, I am picking a couple games in the Mid-American Conference (MAC). This is one of my favorite conferences to follow, both in football and basketball, and it’s time to start jumping on some of those teams. Alright, enough rambling, let’s get to business. MACtion is back, baby! Let us go!

Saturday, October 21st

Temple @ Army (-6.5)

Here’s my main reasoning for liking Army (or disliking Temple) in this game. Any team that loses to UCONN at home (Temple last week) should not be less than double digit underdogs in their next game. I had to be one of the few people watching the UCONN v. Temple game on ESPNU last Saturday morning. It was one of the worst/ugliest football games I’ve ever seen. Temple is not a good football team and Army still has a lot to play for this season. I’m not sure, but I don’t think it’s easy to go into West Point and win a football game against Army (4-0 at home). This is a gut feeling, but I think Army wins this game by 10+.

Iowa @ Northwestern Under 47

I’m not sure why, but this total really caught my eye. Something about a morning kickoff in Evanston that makes me like under here. These are two teams that can put up a lot of points against shaky defenses, but the strength of both these teams is on the defensive end. The spread right now is at Iowa -1.5, and I’m sure it’ll be a close game throughout, hopefully with a lot of punting. You guys know that I don’t like picking unders, but I have a feeling with this one. I think this is an old school Big Ten battle that will end up being 20-17 or something like that, I’ll let you choose who wins.

Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (+3)

Western Michigan was one of my favorite teams to bet on last year, but they were highly overrated at the beginning of the year, and even though we are already more than half way through the season, I don’t think the public has really caught on that they are no where near the same team as last year (2-5 ATS). On the other side we have Eastern Michigan, who is tied for 6th in the FBS with an ATS record of 5-1. EMU has lost 4 straight games, all to very quality opponents, including a 28-27 dog fight at Army last weekend. Eastern Michigan is hungry for a win, and what better way to do it at home against their biggest in state rival? I love EMU at home getting four points here. Maybe even consider sprinkling a little on the moneyline. Gotta love an underdog, when he howls.

Buffalo (+3) @ Miami-Ohio

I told you we’d have a fair share of MACtion picks in this one. This is truly a trend/stats pick. Buffalo leads the all the FBS in ATS with a perfect record of 7-0. You like that? You’ll like this even more. Miami is fourth worst in the FBS in ATS with an abysmal record of 1-6. Yikes. Look, these are two teams that will finish somewhere in the bottom of the MAC, but somebody has to win this game. Buffalo has played a harder schedule than Miami and they have also played opponents closer than Miami has. Vegas has no idea who’s going to win this game, and the only reason Miami is favored is because they are at home and they think that home field advantage is worth three points. I consider Buffalo +3 a nice gift. Again, maybe even consider putting a little on Buffalo moneyline if you’re feeling lucky.

Wyoming (+14) @ Boise State

I don’t know about you guys, but I need a nice late night football fix after all that afternoon MACtion. I usually turn to #Pac12AfterDark in these sort of situations, but once again, I found some value in a smaller conference, the good ol Mountain West. I know that Wyoming and specifically Josh Allen haven’t lived up to the hype this year, but they still find themselves on a nice little three game winning streak. On the other side, we have a Boise State team that has not played up to their Boise State Program expectations this year. Sure, they did just have a really nice road win over San Diego State last week, but I’m not sold on them. Both teams have really struggled on the offensive side of the ball this year and have been carried by the defense. Here’s a nice little nugget: Boise is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games and Wyoming is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games. I think Boise State wins this game, but by two touchdowns or more? Give me a break, or even better, give me Wyoming and the 14 points.

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 18-17 (14-11 ATS, 4-6 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 8 of Bart’s Best Bets. I finally had a good week last week and am back over .500, but there’s still a lot of season left. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 7 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 7: Gotta Keep Rowing

Sometimes I wonder why I keep doing this to myself. I spend at least 3-4 hours on this blog every week and I am always super confident in every pick I make. Then Saturday comes along and I’m lucky to go 2-3. Last week I went 1-4 and almost went 0-5 but Miami beat Florida State in the last minute to give me a win. I honestly don’t know who even reads this any more. I am literally forcing my wife to click on the link every week just so I know someone has at least viewed the blog. Things have gone down hill fast, and I can’t blame people for not reading, because the product that I am putting out there is terrible. I could probably spend these 3-4 hours a week doing something a lot more productive than this, but I’m not going to. You know why? Because I am extremely passionate about this blog and I am determined to turn this thing around. Do not feel sorry for me, just hang in there with me. You know what PJ Fleck would do in this situation? He’d keep rowing that boat, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

Saturday, October 7th

TCU @ Kansas State (+7)

Ahhhh yes, a home team getting points. The Big 12 is always crazy and unpredictable, but this year it seems crazier and more unpredictable than normal. Kenny (Trill) Hill is an incredible football player and TCU very well could be the Big 12 only team that has the chance to make the College Football Playoff, and that’s exactly why I like Kansas State in this one. Ever since Big 12 play started this season, there has been a huge upset that nobody really saw coming. TCU was the first team to do it when they beat Oklahoma State, and I think it is finally their turn to get upset. Kansas State is just an average football team this year, but they still have Bill Snyder running things over there, and as long as they have him they have a chance to win any game. I think the Big 12 craziness continues this week. Take K-State +6 and maybe even sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well. Gotta love an underdog, when they howl. (Insert Brent Musburger voice)

Georgia Tech (+6.5) @ Miami

Everyone knows that I love this Miami Hurricane Football team, but let’s be honest here. They got super lucky last week in the win against Florida State, and they lost their stud running back in the process. After going only 19-44 against FSU, I’m not sold on Malik Rosier either. Miami has a GREAT defense, but the triple option is a different animal, and no team has been able to stop it yet this year. Georgia Tech is literally a double overtime loss away from being an undefeated football team and they are coming off a nice bye week. This is bound to be a low scoring game, and I’ll definitely be rooting for Miami, but I just don’t see them winning by more than 3-4 points, if they win at all.

Baylor @ Oklahoma State OVER 68

I haven’t hit an over for like four weeks, but I’m not going to give up on it. Naturally, I’m turning to Oklahoma State to help me out. Baylor is ranked 112th in the nation in total defense and Oklahoma State is not much better on that end. Oklahoma State also has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation and has scored 40 or more points in four out of their five games this year. Oklahoma State should win this game, but I think Baylor will put up more of a fight than people think. Either way, there will be a lot of yards gained and a lot of points scored in this game. Take the over 70 and enjoy the game.

Arkansas @ Alabama (-30)

Alabama is the best team in college football right now (sorry, Clemson). With a record of 2-3, Arkansas is not a good football team this year, and even worse ATS (0-4-1). I think Alabama’s “close” 11 point win at A&M last Saturday was exactly what this team needed to get them fired up again. Nick Saban is pissed and so is his team, and I don’t feel bad for Arkansas one bit. The Razorbacks cannot play defense, and Alabama has one of the best defenses in the nation. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Alabama won this game 60-0. You can’t set a spread high enough for me to take Arkansas in this game.

Michigan State @ Minnesota (+4.5)

Speaking of Rowing the Boat, let’s talk what about a great opportunity the Gophers have this week. Michigan State is riding high right now after beating Michigan at the Big House and Minnesota is riding the struggle bus after going to West Lafayette and losing to Purdue by two touchdowns. I think this could be a big let down spot for Michigan State. The Spartans officially have a target on their back and I’m not sure if they are good enough to handle it yet. They very well could prove me wrong, but I can’t resist taking PJ and the gang as home dogs in this one. RTB!

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 14-16 (11-10 ATS, 3-6 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 7 of Bart’s Best Bets. I am officially have a losing record in picking games, it’s time to turn this around. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. We had our FOURTH bad round of picks last weekend and I expect to bounce back this week. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 6 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 6: The Greatest Interim Head Coach of All-Time

Another 2-3 weekend for your boy over here. Would have been 3-2 but Florida scored a garbage time TD to turn a 7 point win into a 14 point win and cover the 10 points. That’s the second time this season Florida has burned me on the last play of the game. That’s probably a sign that I need to quit trashing how bad their offense is and just appreciate how they always find ways to win games.

I’m not here to talk about Florida Gator football though, I’m here to talk about the greatest interim head coach of all time, Edward Jim Orgeron Jr. I am choosing to write about him this week only because this could be the last week he is coaching a football team for awhile, maybe forever. Coach O and the LSU Football team started out the season on fire, beating BYU 27-0 and then Chattanooga 45-10. They went on to get absolutely stomped by Mississippi State 37-7, but then rebounded against Syracuse 35-26. It wasn’t time to panic though, they were 3-1 heading into their homecoming game Troy this past weekend. Easy win right? Wrong. LSU ended up losing that game 24-21 and the final score was a lot closer than the actual game. They were trailing the whole game and poor Coach O just couldn’t find the answers. LSU is 3-2 going into the heart of SEC play and the media has officially put Orgeron on the hot seat.

A lot of people may wonder why he’s feeling pressure to win so early, but if you dig deep into his head coaching record, there is a trend that is impossible to ignore. Coach O has a head coaching record of 25-31, which is not great, but then you look even deeper into his head coaching record and you notice that he is 13-27 when he is the head coach at the beginning of the season. That’s a terrible record, so why is he a head coach for one of the most prominent football programs in the SEC? Because his interim head coaching record is outstanding. Coach O is an astounding 12-4 when taking over a team as the interim head coach. That’s a winning percentage of .750! For some reason, Coach O cannot put together a decent team over a whole season, but give him a squad that just had their coach fired and he can lead them to a bowl win.

So here’s what I think Orgeron should do. Assuming they lose to Florida on Saturday, he should simply fire himself from the head coaching position right after the game, maybe even before he gets on the team plane. Then on Monday, The AD should hire him back as the interim head coach because he was the only qualified candidate for the job. Then LSU will rip through the rest of their SEC schedule and end up beating Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl (something like that). There’s still time for LSU to salvage their season, but interim Coach O has to save the day ASAP as possible.

On a more realistic note, I can’t wait to watch him breakdown football as an ESPN analyst next year. I love Coach O more than the average person, but he might be the worst head coach of all time. I don’t care how many bowls of gumbo he can eat or what kind of worms he puts in his mouth.

Saturday, October 7th

Georgia @ Vanderbilt (+18)

Feel free to go the other way in this one, because Georgia looks dang good right now, and Vandy has lost two in a row. I just think there is real nice value with Vandy getting over two touchdowns in this game at home. The first thing I always look for when I’m picking games is home underdogs, and this line screamed at me. There’s really no logic here, because all of the stats and trends are in Georgia’s favor. This is a classic “BartSauce has a feeling pick”. Vandy will be happy to get back home to play in front of their fans. I think they’ll hang tough for two or three quarters and then Georgia’s running game will finally break loose in the fourth and win by 10-14 points. Georgia is most definitely a top 10 team in this league, but I like Vandy to cover in this one. Anybody that’s smart will fade this pick.

Miami (-3) @ Florida State

I normally don’t like picking road favorites, but I just can’t resist with this one. Remember when we took Miami over 9 wins a long time ago? Well, this game was one that we counted as a sure loss for Miami. That was obviously before Florida State lost their stud starting quarterback for the year. Since then the Seminoles have gone 1-1 with a home loss to NC State and a last minute road win against Wake Forest. Now let’s turn to the Hurricanes, they are 3-0 and haven’t had a close game to date. They are good at scoring points and even better at stopping the other team from scoring points. It seems like that famous Turnover Chain makes a weekly appearance. This one is pretty simple, these are two teams heading in two different directions. The U is back and it’s time for them to make it official. I think Miami wins this one by at least a touchdown and looks forward to heading home for a couple weeks.

LSU @ Florida (-3)

I have been on the wrong side of the Florida Gators all season and I think this is finally time to get right with them. I’ve been dogging on Florida all year about how they don’t have a capable quarterback and can’t score points on offense. Well here’s the truth, Florida has an elite defense and their offense is getting better each week and I’m ready to roll with the Gators. I already talked about LSU in the intro, but the bottom line with them is that they just just aren’t good at football this year. Last week’s loss is almost impossible to get over within a week, and I think it’s just going to get worse. LSU is a good defensive team, but unfortunately they are not good on the offensive side of the football and will not have any success against the Gator defense. This should be a low scoring game, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if all hell broke lose for LSU and Florida put up 40 on them, Sorry, Coach O. I consider Florida -3 a gift.

Missouri @ Kentucky (-10)

Here are some quick stats on this years Missouri team. They have a record of 1-3. The closest loss they have had this season was by 18 points to South Carolina. All four of their games so far have been at HOME! They are making their first road trip of the season to Kentucky. Kentucky is not a bad football team, people. They are literally two points away from having a 5-0 record. Kentucky is a confident and hungry football team, Missouri is the opposite. The Wildcats have to be licking their chops with this one. This probably isn’t a game many people are going to watch, and hopefully I won’t have to watch it for very long before Kentucky has this thing wrapped up. The Wildcats should win this game by at least two touchdowns. Keep an eye on this UK squad, I think they are going to surprise some people come November.

Washington State/Oregon OVER 60

I honestly just noticed that three out of my first four game picks are SEC matchups and the other pick is between two Florida teams. I didn’t plan that, I promise. Anyway, let’s end this thing with some PAC-12 after dark action, shall we? As you probably know by know, I love the over in PAC-12 games that start after 8:00 PM, and this game is no exception. Actually, this game is an exception because it starts at 5:00 Pacific Time, and it will be very light out in Eugene. I don’t care, I still want the over. We almost hit the over in the Washington State v. USC game last week but Sam Darnold just couldn’t help but turn the ball over in their last possession (classic). I don’t know who wins this game, but I know it’s going to be a really fun game to watch. Oregon is averaging almost 50 points per game and their lowest scoring game of the season is 35. Washington State is averaging 41 points per game and their lowest score is 30 (last week). So even if both teams tie their season low in points (30 and 35), this thing still goes over. I haven’t hit a total for like three weeks, but I am confident that I finally get on the right side of one this week. I think the final score of the game will be somewhere around 45-42 and I’ll let you pick the winner because it’s a toss up.

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 13-12 (10-7 ATS, 3-5 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 6 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you like watching SEC Football, because I gave you a good dose of it this week. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. We had our THIRD bad round of picks last weekend and I expect to bounce back this week. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 5 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 5: Straight to Business

I have been really bad at picking games the past two weeks, and I owe all of you readers an apology. I am always confident in my picks and I feel like I give good reasoning behind them too. I understand that everyone has their bad weeks, but the bottom line is that 3-7 the last two weeks is downright unacceptable. So here’s my promise to you, I am going to spend less time trying to think of a clever introduction to the blog, and more time working on my picks. Sure, I’ll post a lengthy introduction every once in a while, but the majority of the time I will pretty much go straight to the picks. That’s what you guys are here for anyway, right? I appreciate you all that are still reading this every week. It’s time to turn this thing back in the positive direction.

Friday, September 29th

USC @ Washington State (+6) and OVER 61

This is my first double pick of the year and I am in love with it. You guys have heard me say it a couple times already this year. USC is highly overrated, and I will continue to pick against them until the media and Vegas realize it, which could be awhile. The main reason I love WSU and the overs in this one is because of Luke Falk and how powerful this Mike Leach Washington State offense is. This guy has already thrown for over 1,300 yards and has 14 TD passes and only 1 interception this season. Washington State is averaging 44 ppg this season and I expect them to score just as much in this game. With two first round draft picks playing quarterback, this game is bound to be a shootout (if Sam Darnold can keep up). Washington State has had this game circled on their calendar since the schedule came out and something seems off with USC. I don’t like to predict scores, but I think Washington State wins this one by a score of 48-45 (something like that). This game is being played on Friday night, so it’s a great opportunity to start week 5 on the right foot.

Saturday, September 30th

Vanderbilt (+10) @ Florida

I feel like this is contrarian play, but Florida should not be favored by 10 points to this Vandy squad. Sure, Vanderbilt got absolutely destroyed by Alabama last weekend, but who isn’t getting destroyed by Bama this year? If this game was played last week, Florida would have been favored by a field goal, maybe. So you’re telling me a blowout to the best team in college football swung this line by a touchdown? Either way, I’ll take it. Florida has a great defense, but they still haven’t figured out the quarterback situation. This game will be like every Florida game so far this year, a grind fest. Both teams will struggle to score points in this one and I think Florida will put together a late fourth quarter drive to win by a field goal. I will glady take Vandy and the 10 points.

Clemson @ Virginia Tech (+7.5)

I think this is another contrarian play, but I think people are under estimating Virginia Tech here. Clemson is a very good football team and will probably win the ACC, but Blacksburg at night is one of the toughest environments in college football. Clemson has a great defense and can score in bunches as well. I think Virginia Tech will try to grind out long possessions on offense and keep this thing close the whole way. Clemson’s QB is unexperienced and has already thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year and VT’s defense will look to expose him. Needless to say, I am really excited to watch this game and I think it’ll come down to the last possession. I’m not sure who wins, but I really like Virginia Tech +7.5.

Ole Miss @ Alabama (-27.5)

I tend to over think things a lot, but Alabama absolutely crushing opponents is something I will not over think. They just got done putting a 59-0 whooping on a decent Vandy team, and that was on the road! Now they have a bad Ole Miss football team at home? I think ol Saban is licking his chops on this one. 27.5 looks like a huge number against an SEC opponent, but the only team that can stop Alabama is themselves. Nick Saban has no heart and will continue to beat opponents by 30+ points per game. It’s time to get on the Alabama train, or as I like to call it, “The Money Train”

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 11-9 (8-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

There you have it, folks. Short, sweet, and to the point. Week 5 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. We had our SECOND bad round of picks last weekend and I expect to bounce back this week. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 4 picks!

Bart’s Best Bets Week 4: The Mystery of the Mullet

As you guys probably know by now, there are a few people in college football that I am rather obsessed with. PJ Fleck (Row the Boat) is my favorite coach and an inspiration to me, Jeff Brohm is pure football guy, Jim Harbaugh is rough around the edges, doesn’t care what anybody thinks, and he’s a bigger football guy than Brohm is. Then there is Mike Gundy and his mullet. Gundy is the ultimate wildcard in the college football world, and his mullet is even more mysterious. He started growing it in the Spring of 2016 (1.5 years ago), and he now has the best head of hair in all of college football (sorry, Dana). I don’t know if you guys know this or not, but this mullet is not the only one he’s ever had. He had one when he was going to college and playing for Oklahoma State back in the late 1980s and it’s even better than his current head of hair! People may be wondering why Mike Gundy feels the desire to grow this luscious mullet. There are several reasons he could be doing this: recruiting, superstition, or maybe his wife really likes it. I have thought about all of these, and they are very possible, but I think there is one reason he is growing this mullet and one reason only: To distract the media from covering how FREAKING AWESOME HIS FOOTBALL TEAM IS! Ahhh, after 239 words I have finally gotten to my point. In this weeks AP Poll, Oklahoma State is ranked 6th and is behind both USC and Penn State. Here’s the deal, USC is not a top 10 football team, and Penn State only beat Pittsburgh by 19 points while Oklahoma State doubled that and beat Pittsburgh by a whopping 38 points! I know that the rankings will work themselves out eventually, but I have no idea how they aren’t ranked in the top 4 yet. They have the best offense in college football this year, no one can argue that. At least two if not three of their wide receivers could be starting NFL wide receivers right now and their quarterback, Mason Rudolph will be a Heisman candidate and will most likely be a top 10 draft pick in the 2018 NFL draft. I know they haven’t really played anybody worth noting yet, but the defense is pretty stout as well (for a Big 12 team). I know you guys did not come to read about how great Oklahoma State is (except Eric Gengenbach), but gosh dang it, you guys need to start paying attention to them because they are such a fun team to watch. Don’t wait until they play Oklahoma on November 4th, start watching now. Here’s my hot take of the week and I’ll finally shut up and get to the picks: Oklahoma State is not only the best team in Oklahoma, but they are the best team in the Big 12 Conference and Mike Gundy and his mullet will lead them to the College Football Playoff this year. I know what you’re thinking, it literally took me a week to bet against Baker Mayfield and his Oklahoma squad, but that’s how good this Cowboy team is.

Saturday, September 23rd

TCU @ Oklahoma State (-13)

If you read the introduction, then you all know how I feel about Oklahoma State at this point so I won’t repeat myself, but I do have some interesting stats on TCU that makes me like this even more. It’s pretty simple, they gave up 36 points to SMU last weekend on 463 total yards and 363 through the air. That is terrible news for TCU, because I’m about 99% sure that OSU’s offense is like two times better than SMU’s. When I originally started writing this on Tuesday, OSU was favored by 11, but that didn’t last long. I thought long and hard about taking it off my board when it shot to 13, but I’m going to stick to my guns here. Oklahoma State at home against an inferior opponent favored by less than two touchdowns (barely)? I’ll take that everyday of the week. Oklahoma State wins by 14 or more on Saturday. Tune in and enjoy the air show, you won’t regret it I promise. Bonus pick: I also like the over 72 in this one.

UCF/Maryland OVER 59.5

I’m not sure why, but when I was looking at the board on Monday, this one caught my eye for some reason. Maybe it’s because I haven’t seen UCF on the board for a couple weeks since their games have either been cancelled or postponed. Meanwhile, Maryland has gotten off to a nice 2-0 start and they have outscored their opponents 114-58. UCF has been on the rise ever since Scott Frost arrived there and I think they will continue to do so (until he leaves of course, which could be sooner than later). Bottom line here is that both teams like to score points, and I’m not sure how great (or interested) the defenses will be at stopping those high powered offenses. Those sound like perfect ingredients for an over to me.

USC @ California (+17)

This honestly might be my favorite pick of the weekend, and it just goes to show how overrated of a team USC is. Sure, they have a top 10 pick playing quarterback (not as good as Mason Rudolph). Everyone is talking about how great of a win USC had against Texas last Saturday. Yeah, it was a fun game to watch, but Texas is not a good football team and if USC was an actual top 5 team in the nation they would have creamed Texas by double digits! Meanwhile, the Cal Bears, chosen to finish dead last in the PAC-12 South is off to a nice 3-0 start and just had a hard fought 27-16 win against Ole Miss. I honestly think this is going to be a great game that comes down to the end. USC is just not as good as the media thinks they are and California is a confident football team right now. At the very least California will give USC a real scare, so I will graciously take the 17 points they are giving me with this one.

Michigan @ Purdue (+10)

This is a match up between two of my favorite football guys: Jim “Milk Man” Harbaugh and Jeff “Street Fight Between the Whistles” Brohm. I feel like I’m obligated to take Purdue for the third week straight because they just keep on covering the spread (3-0 so far). Purdue continues to be a better football team than anyone realizes and I will continue to take advantage of it. I was just listening to Jim Harbaugh’s podcast and he was talking about how good of a football team Purdue is and that Brohm is well on his way to winning Big Ten Coach of the Year. That is obviously just Harbaugh coach speaking, but there is a lot of truth to that. I’ve read that Purdue is going to have their first sellout in years. I’m not sure how crazy Purdue football fans can be, but I feel like they will reach their full potential this weekend in West Lafayette. Michigan is not in the business of blowing teams out this year, the defense is elite, but the offense just does not have the fire power to do it. Purdue is confident, motivated, and will be super prepared for this game. I think Michigan wins the game by 3-7 points.

Washington/Colorado OVER 50.5

This total really surprised me when a first saw it, and I still can’t believe these two teams are hovering around 50 total points. Washington can put up points with the best of them and Colorado isn’t all that bad on that end either. I think they set this total so low because they are both ranked in the top 15 in team defense so far this year. Here’s why I think that is: they really haven’t played any high powered offenses yet this year. Washington is clearly the better team here and will look to set the pace early, forcing Colorado to follow suit. I figured this line would be set somewhere around 60-65, and I think that’s where this game will be at when it’s all said and done. This game could turn into a low key shoot out, who knows with PAC-12 after dark. All I know is that I will be rooting for the over in this game and hoping that it stays exciting enough to keep me up past 10:00!

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 10-5 (7-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U)

There you have it, folks. Week 4 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading (especially you, Eric) and enjoy my picks this week even more. We had our first bad round of picks last weekend and I expect to bounce back this week. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 3 picks!