Well look at that. Another 4-1 week from Bart’s Best Bets. I’m off to an 8-2 start and I am super happy about it. False, I am not happy with my performance thus far. I should have a record of 9-1, but I bet against Baker Mayfield. The sole reason I picked Ohio State in this one was because of Urban Meyer. I figured he would want to lay the wood to the young coach Lincoln Riley. What I did not know was that this team does not belong to Lincoln Riley, this team is Baker Mayfield’s and I don’t think anyone can make an argument otherwise. He is clearly the ultimate leader on this team and everyone knows it. That dude has been balling out ever since he arrived on OU’s campus and he had the kind of game at Ohio State that wins a Heisman Trophy (4/1 odds currently). I’m sure that Lincoln Riley is a fine coach and will do a great job at Oklahoma in later years, but OU’s success this year will be because of the leadership and play of Mayfield. So here’s my promise to you readers out there: I will not pick against the 2017 Oklahoma Sooner Football team ever again. I don’t care if they are playing Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, or any other great college football team. Baker Mayfield will find a way to cover the spread, if not win the game!

Seriously though, my .800 win percentage is nearly impossible to keep up thorough out a whole season so don’t be upset if my week 3 picks go 0-5. Water always finds it’s level, and when it does, just know that I will be more upset than any of you guys. In the mean time, I will continue to pick out my five favorite lines and totals of the week and hopefully make you readers some money! I don’t have any funny stories this week (again, they will come, long season), so I guess I’ll just get straight to the picks!

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Saturday, September 16th

Tennessee (+4) @ Florida

I know it is extremely tough to go into Gainsville and beat Florida at football, but I have a few different reasons to like Tennessee in this one. First and foremost, Florida did not have a game in Week 2 due to Hurricane Irma. They really could have used that game against Northern Colorado to groove in their offense before SEC play. My second reason is pretty simple, Florida has not yet scored an offensive touchdown this season, and they really haven’t even come close. Sure, the defense is great, but the quarterback play is a huge question mark. You can’t rely on the defense to win games, not in the SEC. Tennessee has a lot of momentum going into this game and I think they are a good enough football team to grind out a win here. Worst case scenario is that the Volunteers lose by a field goal, because we both know that Florida cannot score touchdowns.

Clemson/Louisville UNDER 58

This is setting up to be a great game to watch as these ACC foes face off. I know it’s early, but now that Florida State lost its starting quarterback, this could be the game that decides the winner of the Atlantic Division. I know Louisville and Lamar Jackson enjoy scoring a lot of points (41 points per game), but I am taking the under in this one because of Clemson. I think they have realized they can’t win games like they used to when Deshaun Watson was at QB and they had plenty of NFL caliber wide receivers. They beat a very good Auburn team last Saturday by a score of 14-6. Clemson obviously has a great defense and are not afraid to use it. This is a huge game for both teams and I think Clemson will try to keep Lamar Jackson off the field by having long offensive drives and playing the field position game. I see this being a 21-17 kind of game that goes down to the very end. I have no idea who wins this game, but I do know the total will stay under 58.

Purdue (+7) @ Missouri

There’s so much to love about Purdue this year. First, Jeff Brohm is by far my second favorite college football coach (PJ Fleck being my favorite, obviously). If you aren’t aware of Jeff Brohm yet, look at this and this. You’re welcome. Second, I have a sneaking suspicion that Purdue might end the season with the best ATS record in the nation (again, remind me of this when they go 1-8 in the Big Ten). Purdue continues to be undervalued in Vegas and last I checked Missouri is not good at football. I think Purdue has a really good chance of being a decent football team this year and I will continue to ride them until they let me down.

Oregon State @ Washington State (-21)

Purdue and Oregon State are on the exact opposite ends of the ATS record standings. Oregon State is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS and just got crushed by Minnesota at HOME last Saturday. Washington State on the other hand had an epic 3OT win over Boise State last weekend in which they came back from a 31-10 deficit in the fourth quarter. In my opinion, if Washington State wants any chance at winning their division in the PAC12, they need to start hot and absolutely bully the Beavers. I like the Cougars to ride the momentum from its latest victory and beat Oregon State by 25+. Also, just like Purdue, I will continue to go against Oregon State until they burn me.

Texas/USC OVER 67

I’m not going to try and act like I’m an expert on either team involved in this game. Here’s what I do know, USC is averaging 45.5 ppg and Texas is averaging 53.5 ppg. If you add those two numbers together you 99 points per game! That’s 32 points more than what oddsmakers set the total at. Both quarterbacks can ball and they have some really good receivers to throw to. I don’t care how good the defenses are (they aren’t good), this game is set to be a shootout. I would honestly go over 80 on this game. Take the over and enjoy watching this one, because it’s going to be a fun one.

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 8-2 (5-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U)

There you have it, folks. Week 3 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Row that Boat and let’s keep this hot streak rolling. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 2 picks!

So as you probably know by now, Bart’s Best Bets went 4-1 last week. I’m not going to get too excited though, it’s a VERY long season. But for real, What a start to the college football season! I could take all the credit for a great week of picking, but that would be very unfair to my wife, who deserves a good amount of credit herself. I know Saturday’s are for the boys, but I spent all of Saturday watching football with my wife (bless her heart). Now you’re probably wondering, “Where does this magical power thing come into the story?” Well, here it is: We’re watching the Michigan v. Florida game on Saturday afternoon (in the cave) when I notice her starting to go into full nap mode, which I don’t think much of because Michigan is up 10-3 at this point and they look like they are in control. Once she is fully asleep, the wheels start to fall off for Michigan. Wilton Speight goes ahead and throws TWO PICK SIXES IN A ROW! Florida is now leading 17-10 and I have a very uneasy feeling in my stomach. Those that know me are well aware that I am very superstitious so I start to get a little worried about the fact that my wife is sleeping; everything was going great until she dozed off. I told myself I wouldn’t go into full panic mode and wake her up until at least half time. Luckily, she woke up with about six minutes left in the second quarter. This is where things get weird. Right when she wakes up, Michigan starts driving down the field easily and kicks a field goal with four minutes left in the half. So it’s 17-13 at half time and I told my wife that she was not allowed to fall asleep for the rest of the game because I had a hunch that bad things would happen if she went back into nap mode. She stayed awake for the rest of the game and Michigan went on to outscore Florida 20-0 in the second half and cruises to an easy 33-17 victory (Florida did not score an offensive touchdown, ouch). Now, some of you may think this is just a big coincidence, and that’s okay. Just know this, when my wife was alert and awake Michigan outscored Florida 33-3 and when she was asleep Florida outscored Michigan 14-0. There’s a lot of dots that can be connected there. My wife has magical football powers and all you readers need to thank her for Michigan -4!

Quick Miami Hurricane update: The Canes beat Bethune-Cookman (who?) with a score of 41-13. Score was tied 3-3 at the end of the first quarter, but then Miami woke up and played like they were supposed to. They still couldn’t manage to cover the 51.5 point spread. No worries though, because we discovered they have this thing called the “Turnover Chain” they give to anybody who forces a turnover so they can wear it on the sideline. Such a Miami move it’s not even funny. THE U IS BACK (for a week, at least). Unfortunately, due to Hurricane Irma (prayers to everyone affected), the Miami @ Arkansas State game has been cancelled, which means they will not make the game up and Miami will only play 11 games this year. We are still trying to find out what exactly this means for our OVER 9 wins bet, but it will most likely end up being no action and a push. So, basically the same result as our Arkansas bet last year, but a lot less exciting. I will still be a big fan of the Miami Hurricane football team no matter what this year. They have my heart.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Friday, September 8th

Ohio @ Purdue (-3.5)

I never thought I would be taking Purdue in a football game, let along Purdue as a 3.5 point favorite, but here I am. I very well could be overreacting to how well Purdue played against Louisville on Saturday, but they really looked like a team that could win a couple games in Big Ten play (remind me I said that when they go 1-8 in the Big Ten). As for Ohio, they demolished Hampton 59-0 and held them to only 108 yards of offense and 7 first downs. Ohio lost a lot of receivers and their quarterback from last years team, so they are pretty much limited to running the ball. Purdue threw the ball well against Louisville and I believe they will continue that against Ohio’s weak secondary. The bottom line here is that Purdue now knows that they could be a decent football team this year, but in order for that to happen, they have to beat Ohio at home on a Friday night. I know Ohio is no slouch (I LOVE me some MACtion), but give me Purdue by a touchdown.

Saturday, September 9th

Northwestern @ Duke (+3)

Are these two teams playing football or taking the SAT against each other? Either way, if I’m given Duke as a three point home dog, I’m taking that all day long! In my opinion, Northwestern has been and always will be an overrated team (betting wise) and I have no idea why. They were in a fight to the end with Nevada at HOME last weekend. They were 24 point favorites going into the game, but were down 17-7 at half. Sure, they ended up winning the game 31-20, but they cannot afford to have a slow start against Duke on the road. Duke had a great start to their season, beating North Carolina Central 60-7. Their biggest problem last year was their offense, so scoring 60 points in their opener has to give them confidence going into week 2. This year, Duke’s weakness will be their defense, but luckily for them Northwestern doesn’t have the most explosive offense in the country. This is going to be a back and forth game, and I think the crowd will get behind them in the fourth quarter and help Duke squeak out a nail biter against Northwestern.

Nebraska/Oregon OVER 70

As you all probably know, I am a Nebraska Football fan, so I’m not going to get started on a rant about the game last week. Instead, I’ll just post the scores from both Oregon and Nebraska’s week 1 games. Oregon beat Southern Utah 77-21 and Nebraska defeated Arkansas State 43-36. That’s a total of 120 combined points for Oregon and Nebraska last week. I don’t think either defense will be too interested in staying on the field for an extended period of time and I look for this game to become a shootout early. This line is going to continue to go up and probably close around 72, so get it while it’s hot!

Oklahoma @ Ohio State (-7.5)

This is going to be a fun game and I’m really looking forward to watching it. I think we’re getting some great value with Ohio State here. The only reason this line isn’t -10.5 is because they let Indiana hang around for 2.5 quarters last Thursday. Sure, Oklahoma looked good in their 57-6 win over UTEP, but Ohio State has a couple extra days of rest and it’s their home opener on Saturday AND it’s a night game. I don’t have the numbers, but I feel like Ohio State has pretty good record in their home night games. Oklahoma will hang around for a half or so, but I think Urban Meyer and his boys will pull away towards the end and win by 10+ points.

Minnesota (+3) @ Oregon State

I cannot help myself with this one. You guys are well aware by now that I absolutely LOVE me some PJ Fleck action, and I don’t think too highly of Oregon State this year. Oregon State lost to Colorado State by 31 points two weeks ago, and then BARELY beat Portland State at home last Saturday. So here’s the burning question: Why in the world is Oregon State favored by 3 points in this game?! Yeah, Minnesota didn’t play particularly well against Buffalo, but at least they didn’t allow 30+ points to Portland State! Minnesota should be favored in this game by at least a field goal, so I’ll definitely take the Gophers at +3. I say PJ Fleck Rows His Boat Into Corvallis and wins by a touchdown.

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 4-1

There you have it, folks. Week 2 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 1 picks! Oh yeah, don’t forget to thank my wife!

I’ve been trying to think of a nice intro piece to put into the blog for about a week now, but I really haven’t been able to think of anything. I finally figured out why: I’m just so dang excited for football (Nebraska and Miami especially) that I can’t think about anything else! Instead of giving you some lame intro (those are coming, long season), I’ll explain how Bart’s Best Bets are going to work this season. Each week I will give you my five favorite College Football picks. They will be either against the spread (ATS), straight up (moneyline), or over/under (totals). This week, my five bets include three picks ATS and two totals. I start with a Thursday Night Special and end with a Sunday Night Shootout (fingers crossed).

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Thursday, August 31st

Oklahoma State (-18) v. Tulsa

You guys didn’t think I’d make you wait until Saturday did you? Heck no, we’ve got ourselves a Thursday Night Special! 17.5 looks like a pretty large number, especially for an opening game, but I really like Oklahoma State in this spot. Oklahoma State is ranked 10th in the preseason polls and I honestly think they could be closer to 6th or 7th. Mason Rudolph had a fantastic year last year and I look for him to have an even better one this year. The Cowboys also return their best wide receiver and running back from last years 10-3 team. Their defense isn’t near as good as their offense, but I don’t think that matters too much in this one. Tulsa was also 10-3 last year, but they lost their quarterback and two of their top receivers from that team. They lost quite a bit on defense as well, not that their defense last year was anything great. I wouldn’t normally take this high of a number, but an opening night game at Boone Pickens against an inferior in-state opponent is too hard to resist.

Friday, September 1st

Colorado State (+4) @ Colorado

The first thing to note with this game is that it is not actually in Boulder, it’s being played at Sports Authority Field (didn’t they go bankrupt?). So you can go ahead and forget home field advantage. A lot of people will probably be siding with Colorado and the relatively small number because of the great year the Buffalos had last year, but not so fast. They lost not only their starting quarterback, but they also lost a ton of their defensive players to the NFL Draft. I guess that’s what happens when a team has a good season, they go to the NFL, where they can actually get paid (don’t get me started). Colorado State played a game last Saturday against Oregon State, and they looked VERY good in the 2nd half. I think Colorado comes out rusty in the first half and Colorado State takes advantage early. I consider this game a toss up, and could be one of the most underrated games of the weekend. Don’t be surprised if Colorado State wins this thing straight up.

Saturday, September 2nd

Michigan (-5) v. Florida

This game is going to be awesome, at least that’s what I first thought when I saw that these two teams were playing. Then I found out that 8 (scratch that, 10 now) of Florida’s players including their best offensive weapon (Antonio Calloway) will be suspended for Saturday’s game against the Wolverines because of an off-season credit card scandal (huh?) and marijuana charges. Add that to their coach not having named a starting quarterback yet and you’ve got a rather large problem, no matter who you are playing. Michigan lost a TON from last years team to the NFL Draft, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and they also haven’t named a starting quarterback yet. The only advantage Michigan has is that their players stayed out of trouble this off-season (or at least didn’t get caught). Ol’ Harbaugh probably had them drinking whole milk and watching film on the weekends. Florida is going to be a really good team this year once they get all their players back and the quarterback situation figured out, but they are running into Michigan at the wrong time. Give me Jim “Milk Man” Harbaugh and his bunch by at least a touchdown on Saturday.

LSU v. BYU UNDER 47

Wait, BYU is 1-0 already? I didn’t even know they played a game last Saturday! Well that’s probably a good thing you didn’t watch because it was a terrible game! BYU v. Portland State (who?). BYU should blow their doors off with their starters showered and laying on their couch by the start of the fourth quarter, right? Wrong. They squeaked out a 20-6 against a team they should have hung at least 50 on. Sure, they might have been looking ahead to this week’s game against LSU, but that’s still not a good enough excuse. LSU should win this game, but I’m not going to lay 17 points on my boy Coach O and the Tigers. This game was supposed to be in Houston, but because of obvious reasons, they moved the game to the Superdome in New Orleans. I think LSU will be able to score on BYU, but I think LSU’s defense will shut down BYU’s offense. I know, I hate betting on unders too, but I see this game in the 24-10 range.

Sunday, September 3rd

Texas A&M v. UCLA OVER 56.5

Here’s the deal, I don’t know too much about either of these teams. Here’s what I do know: both coaches are officially “on the hot seat” and neither team is particularly good at defending offenses. I am confident that this game will be a shootout and will go over 56.5 by at least 7-10 points. Let’s be real here, the only reason I am taking this game is because it’s on Sunday (gotta fight those Sunday Scaries with something), and I’ve already had to suffer through one under this weekend, I’m definitely not rooting for two. When in doubt, bet the over, that’s what I’m doing here.

I hope you guys enjoy five straight days of football (yep, there’s a game on Monday) and have a FANTASTIC Labor Day weekend! I am irrationally confident in all of these picks and I hope you are too. Either way, I’ll be back next weekend with five more picks. DaveCh999 will also have his NFL picks for week 1!

FOOTBALL IS BACK! (Love you guys)

And I’m back! Can you believe my wife is letting me do this again?! I had way too much fun last year to quit this blog after one season and the Double COVERage team has tons of ideas for the upcoming CFB and NFL seasons. What better way to start the 2017 blog season off than with College Football season win totals? Sure, betting on point spreads from week to week is a lot of fun, but there is nothing that compares to the excitement (and anger) that comes from betting on a team’s season win total.

Which leads me to the story I like to call: “The Most Legendary Push of All Time”. Here it goes:

Last year the Double COVERage team decided to take the Arkansas Football Team UNDER 7 total wins. We studied that team back and forth and concluded that there was no way they could win over 7 games. We were sure they would finish with a record of 5-7 or 6-6. Their best case scenario was to go 7-5, but that was VERY unlikely. Our optimism in the Arkansas football team lasted literally one week into the season. Then came the legendary win over TCU: 41-38 in DOUBLE OVERTIME. In all of the calculations we had done, we had Arkansas with a record of 1-1 after 2 games with a loss to TCU. Well, they were 2-0 and we had all but lost our bet. I’m already getting long winded, so I’ll skip to their very last regular season game, because that’s really the only one that matters. Arkansas (7-4) is headed to Missouri (3-8) and we had already accepted the fact that Arkansas was going to win 8 games and we might be the worst college football wanna-be analysts of all time. Arkansas is leading at halftime with a score of 24-7. I’m going to be honest, I quit watching. I was officially done with Arkansas football and had nobody to blame but myself. Then, my phone starts blowing up with text messages from our Arkansas Under 7 Wins group text (Yeah, we had like six people in on this bet): “Can you believe this?! Missouri is coming back!”. So I checked the score on my phone and sure enough Missouri had scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter and held Arkansas to 0 so it was 24-21 Arkansas with the lead heading into the 4th quarter. You know why this was happening don’t you? You guys should know from the CFB Championship Game that when I quit watching something (or even go to bed), good things start to happen for our bets. So I just follow the game through our group text and good things continue to happen for Missouri. They end up scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter and again holding Arkansas to no points. Missouri beats Arkansas 28-24 and more importantly Arkansas finishes with 7 wins. Definitely not the outcome we predicted or were hoping for, but holy cow what a ride it was to get there! That, my friends is the story “The Most Legendary Push of All Time” and is a prime example of why betting season win totals is so excruciatingly exciting. We probably lost a few years of our lives last year (Thanks a lot, TCU), but we’re doing it again this year.

We did probably double the research this year and examined a lot of different teams, but we finally settled on one team we REALLY like this year. I’ll give you the three teams we decided between and why we love/hate their win totals for this season. Buckle up, it’s going to be a wild ride.

College Football Season Win Totals

South Florida OVER 10 wins (-110)

This one is very simple, all you have to do is look at two things: Their Schedule and their coach Coach. I know what you guys are thinking, Charlie Strong was REALLY bad at Texas, but he was put in a really rough spot. People like to forget what he did at Louisville in four seasons. He went 37-15 and led them to a bowl game every year. His last two years he had an outstanding record of 23-3, and that is why he got the head job at Texas. This guy knows how to coach football and is in a really good situation at South Florida. They return 16 starters from their 11-2 football team last year and they have a strength of schedule that ranks 110th out of 130. They might have the easiest non-conference schedule ever and all of their “tough” conference games are at home except for their last game that is at UCF. Worst case scenario is that they get a bad case of the injury bug and go 9-3 or 10-2. We think this team will go 11-1 or maybe even 12-0 if things go right. However, we did not take this one, because we would rather not watch AAC Football every single week of the season.

Oregon State UNDER 5.5 Wins (-145)

You had me at “6th toughest schedule in the nation”. This team does return 15 starters from last years team, but that team only won 4 games, and their schedule did not get any easier. The PAC12 is a very good football conference and their non-conference schedule does not do them any favors with Colorado State and Minnesota (Row the Boat!). They definitely have six winnable games on their schedule, but unfortunately most of those games are on the road. We see them going 5-7 at best, but wouldn’t be surprised if they went 4-8 or 3-9. However, we did not take this one because most of their winnable games are at the end of the season and we do not want to stress ourselves out with Oregon State for four straight weeks.

I hope you’re ready, because it’s time for me to unveil the “Double COVERage College Football Season Win Total Pick”. DaveCh999 made this bet official on Sunday, August 13th (In Las Vegas, of course). We researched this team up and down, back and forth and we couldn’t love a win total more than we love this one. We somehow even talked ten other people into taking this team as well (If you’re reading this, you’re welcome). Okay, okay, sorry for rambling, here it goes!

Miami (FL) OVER 9 Wins (-130)

Let’s start with the schedule. At first glance it looks pretty tough, but it’s actually ranked 47th toughest in the nation. They return 15 starters from last years team that went 9-4 all of their big conference games are at home except for Florida State. There’s a lot of positive things going on with this team. Schedule wise, they avoid playing both Louisville and Clemson and the Coastal division is a lot easier to get through than the Atlantic Division. Personnel wise, they have the best defense in the ACC Coastal, the best Offensive line and best receiving core in all of the ACC. Could you imagine if Brad Kaaya would have stuck around for this season?! That’s the only problem, Brad Kaaya is gone and they haven’t named a quarterback yet. Fortunately, they have two weeks of the season to figure that out until they have to go play Florida State. Whoever wins the quarterback battle is set though, with the great offensive line and receivers, all he has to do is not turn the ball over. Mark Richt knows that too, because they have been having “Ball-security meetings” with the whole team. Their big games are pretty spread out which is very important when looking at season win totals, and they only play one team that is coming off of a bye week (Georgia Tech). After going through their schedule we think they most likely lose to Florida State and trip up somewhere else along the way (Vigrinia Tech or Pitt), which puts them at 10-2. Worst case scenario being 9-3 and best case scenario 11-1. Needless to say, we’re VERY excited about the Miami Hurricanes football team this year and will be tuned in every single week. Feel free to go in on The U with us too.

I hope you enjoyed reading the first Double COVERage blog post of the year, because I sure as heck had fun writing it. DaveCh999 will post an NFL Preview in the near future and I will be back before CFB Week 1 with “Bart’s Best Bets”. Football season is ALMOST here folks, get excited.

I don’t know about you guys, but this college bowl season has me worn out. It started off low, but ended incredibly high . If you have been living in a cave for the past month and missed the bowl season, here’s a great rundown of all the games.

As far as my picks were concerned, well, it wasn’t great. I didn’t post all of my picks on the blog because I was way busier during my Christmas Break, but I did make a pick for every game because I wanted to see if I was any good at this thing (spoiler alert: I’m not). My record against the spread for college bowl season ended up being 18-21-1. Not a terrible performance, but I could have been better. Here are three things I learned during the college bowl season:

• No one likes the SEC (Nick Saban), but you sure don’t win much if you pick against them. Sometimes it’s better to just put your opinions to the side and go with the pick that makes the most sense (Alabama). Stop trying to be cute by picking against the SEC (Washington), it doesn’t work.

 

• Defense wins bowl games. I know it’s not much fun to watch a really good defense shut a really good offense down, but it happens a lot during bowl season. I’ll take a great defense that has a month to prepare over a great offense with a month to prepare. I was getting burnt by good defenses early in the bowl season and then I finally started riding the better defenses and it worked out quite well.

 

• Coaching changes before bowl games are inevitable, so take advantage of them. My first blog of the college bowl season was about Tom Herman leaving Houston for Texas and how Houston was still going to roll SDSU because they had Major Lee Applewhite taking over. I didn’t think it would shake up the chemistry for them since he had been their offensive coordinator all year, but it apparently changed something for the worse. It wasn’t just Houston, teams that made a coaching change before their bowl game went 1-3 against the spread this year. Stuff like that definitely matters, I won’t make that mistake again.

I learned most of this myself, but some of this stuff came from a book I read over break called: Good Teams Win. Great Teams Cover. (Thanks to my brother, Joe)  This guy is really good, so if you’re interested in how to pick games, buy this book.

Bowl season definitely had its ups and downs. I didn’t do so great with my picks (good thing I don’t actually gamble money, right?), but I learned a ton of stuff along the way. I’ll take what I’ve learned from this bowl season and apply it to next years and I’ll probably do even worse, that’s how wonky this stuff really is. The best part about it was how many great football games I got to watch. Whether I was by myself or with my friends and family, I truly had a great time watching all of these games, and that’s what it’s all about right? So let’s try this thing one more time, and this time it’s for all the marbles. I’m going to research the crap out of this thing, and then throw all of that research in the trash and pick from my heart.  Don’t be sad it’s over, smile because it happened. Here’s my College Football Championship Pick.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

College Football Playoff Championship

• Alabama vs. Clemson: (Clemson +6, AND Clemson +180, AND Over 51)

You know what they say, you throw out the record books when it comes to championship games. The team that plays the best that night and that night only will win the game. So I’m not going to look into the numbers at all in this one. What happens when this math teacher quits looking at numbers? Well, he starts thinking up crazy scenarios that will never happen, but then talks himself into thinking they are realistic. I’ve actually been thinking about this theory for awhile and I think it has legs.

First, let’s start out with the facts: Lane Kiffin will not be the offensive coordinator for Alabama on Monday night. Steve Sarkisian will be the OC for Alabama on Monday night. It’s common knowledge that Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin never got along. It’s also common knowledge that Steve Sarkisian is an alcoholic.

Now, here’s my theory: In attempt to sabotage Nick Saban’s chances of winning his 5th title in 8 years, Lane Kiffin is going to have a little fun with Sark the night before the championship game (Sunday night). Lane is going to take Sark out for a night on the town and “talk football”. Being a competitive human being, Lane challenges Steve to a drink off. Being a competitive human being as well (and also a rather stupid human being, not seeing what Lane is trying to accomplish), Steve accepts said drink off. We all know that Lane never stood a chance and Sark wins that one easy, just take a look at this receipt. Now, it’s Monday morning and Sark doesn’t make it for the morning walk through (meanwhile, Kiffin is already on a plane headed home, pretending nothing ever happened). Sark wakes up from ferocious knocking at his door, it’s Saban. Smelling the alcohol on his breath, Saban fires him on the spot and decides that he’ll just have to be the OC for the championship game. Here’s the thing, Nick Saban is a defensive genius, but I’m not so sure he knows much about the offensive end of the football. Bad news for Alabama. Clemson takes advantage and plays the best game all season, beating Alabama and winning the College Football National Championship.

Lane Kiffin strikes again. Clemson wins. Everyone is happy, right?

Ok, that was a little far out there, but I’m entitled to publishing stupid stuff because this is my blog (again, blame my wife).

Here’s the bottom line: I have a gut feeling that Clemson will not only cover the six points, but they will win the game outright in somewhat of a high scoring game that will come down to the last possession. I know earlier in the blog I told you guys that I learned to bet the SEC and go with the better defense, and I’m not doing either of these two on this pick. That’s because my gut trumps everything I’ve ever learned. Deal with it.

Clemson: 38 Alabama: 35

Have a great Championship Monday!

The following paragraph was written on Wednesday morning before the Potato Bowl.

“It’s not how you start, but it’s how you finish” (Michael Phelps said that once?) That’s my thoughts on my first set of bowl picks. I started out 0-2 last Saturday, but then had a raging comeback and finished up going 5-3 ATS and 6-4 if you count the two over/under picks I made. I’m 3-0 so far this week, so I’m kind of on a hot streak right now. What goes up must come down though, so beware of my upcoming picks, because I have no idea when this streak is going to crash and burn. I’m not going to do much of an opening here because I have a lot of picks to get to, and let’s be honest, the reason you’re reading this is for the picks.

This next paragraph was written on Saturday morning before the Hawaii Bowl.

First off, I have to apologize for not putting up a blog for the past couple days. Second off, it’s a really good thing I didn’t because my small hot streak has officially crashed and burned. I extended it with going with Idaho +16 on Wednesday night, but then it got bad on Friday. I went with all the favorites ATS: Old Dominion, Lousiana Tech, and Troy. All of them won (would have made for a nice moneyline parlay), but none of them covered. Ouch. So while I feel bad because I haven’t been able to post in awhile (husband stuff, marriage is awesome though, seriously), it’s actually a good thing for anybody that actually takes my advice, because it would have been really bad advice.

So this is how this is going to work the rest of the Bowl Season. I’m going to give you a pick on every bowl game, but I’m not going to analyze each one. I don’t have time to do all that, and you don’t have enough time to read all of that action. I will only elaborate on the games that I feel most confident/opinionated about.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

 

College Football Bowls: December 24-29

• Hawaii vs. Middle Tennessee: Middle Tennessee (-7.5)

I’m not sure if anyone will watch this game, I definitely won’t. With all of the NFL games going on today I’m afraid this game is just going to get lost in the shuffle, and it’s probably a good thing. Hawaii isn’t a good football team. The only reason they got in a bowl game with an under .500 record is because the Bowl Game is called the “Hawaii Bowl”. Even though this is a home game for Hawaii, Mid Tennessee is just a better football team and they should win this one going away.

• Miami-Ohio vs. Mississippi State: Miami-Ohio (+14.5) 

Here’s the deal with this game. I know nothing about Miami-Ohio other than the fact that Big Ben played his college ball there. What I do know is that Miss. St. is allergic to playing anything close to defense. I sat through the whole Arkansas vs. Miss. St. game earlier this year (more on Arkansas in a later blog) and Arkansas didn’t punt once the whole game. NOT ONCE! I’m sure Mississippi State will pull this one out, but they don’t play enough defense to win by more than two touchdowns. Sorry Stingray Steve, I love you, but you’re team sucks.

• Maryland vs. Boston College: Boston College (+2.5)
• NC State vs. Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt (+6)
• North Texas vs. Army: Army (-10)

For the troops.

• Temple vs. Wake Forest: Temple (-11.5)

Finally a game worth writing about. You guys know by now that I love Temple football. They posted an incredible 12-1 record ATS this season and I don’t see them ending it here. I know their coach is on his way to Baylor (good luck with that), but I don’t think that will discourage this team from going out there and laying the wood to Wake Forest. Wake Forest doesn’t even average 20 points per game, and they definitely won’t score that much against Temple’s dominant defense.

• Minnesota vs. Washington State: Washington State (-10)

I honestly have no idea what’s going on with the Minnesota football program right now, but I do know that it has to be a huge distraction. This game is going to come down to one thing: scoring touchdowns. Guess what? Minnesota isn’t as good at scoring touchdowns as Washington State. That along with the fact that I love Mike Leach makes me really like Wazzou in this one.

• Boise State vs. Baylor: Boise State (-8.5)

I’m done trusting any Big 12 out there. I’ve been let down too many times by that conference. Let’s go Broncos!

• Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern: Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Enjoy this one with some Primanti Bros. and Yuengling.

• West Virginia vs. Miami: West Virginia (+2.5)

I may be stupid, but I really don’t think Miami is all that great. I know I just got done saying that I wasn’t going to trust a Big 12 team, but let’s be real, West Virginia is still in the Big East in Bob Huggins mind. When someone musters up the guts to tell Bob Huggins that they are in the Big 12 now, I will officially put them in that conference.

• Utah vs. Indiana: Utah (-7.5)
• Texas A&M vs. Kansas State: Kansas State (+2.5)

In Bill Snyder I trust. That’s all I got.

• USF vs. South Carolina: USF (-10.5)
• Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech: Arkansas (+7)

It was a grind having to root against Arkansas all year. I’m a sympathetic guy, and I feel bad for hating on them all year, so I’m going to be a big Arkansas fan in this one. Woo Pig!

• Colorado vs. Oklahoma State: Colorado (-3)

Colorado hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2007, so I think they’re probably pretty excited about it. Colorado ended up going 10-2 ATS this year and I’m hoping they can make it 11-2. This should be a fun game to watch with a lot of scoring. Also, never trust a football coach with a mullet.

Current Bowl Record: 6-5-1

Ahhhhh, College Football Bowl Season is finally here. If you think I’m more excited than Buddy about Santa coming, you’re absolutely right, Boom. A lot of stuff has been happening in the college football coaching world the last couple weeks. Some coaches got fired, some moved from one job to another job, some even got promoted. Let’s be honest though, none of those moves really got my juices flowing, except for one. Enter, Major Lee Applewhite! That is one of my favorite names in football, it even competes with my man Jim Bob Cooter. As a player, you would have to be insane not to go all out for a guy name Major Lee. Not to mention this guy legitimately knows his football, well at least the offensive side. Former starting quarterback for the University of Texas, and he’s been the Offensive Coordinator at Rice, Alabama, Texas, and Houston. I don’t think Houston is going to have any fall off from Tom Herman leaving for Texas. I actually think Houston will be better off without him. Basically what I’m saying is take the over on Houston’s win total for next year as soon as it comes out. You can thank me later.

So now, for the real question: Does Major Applewhite wash his apples? Absofruitly. Not.

I apologize, that rant was pretty pointless, but that’s what blogs are for, right? Remember, this is my wife’s fault. Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

 

College Football Bowls: December 17-21

• UTSA vs. New Mexico: New Mexico (-7.5)

I’m probably going to be saying this a lot in my Bowl picks, but I really don’t know a whole lot about either of these teams. Sometimes knowing too little is better than knowing too much though. What I do know is, New Mexico beat Wyoming handly 56-35 in their last game. I really like Wyoming (more on that later), so that was enough for me to pick New Mexico even with the half point hook.

• San Diego State vs. Houston: Houston -4 and OVER 52

This is my featured pick for this slate of games, and if you couldn’t tell in the intro, I really like Major Lee Applewhite. You can say the same about Houston. If you would have asked me a couple weeks ago to pick this game, I would have said SDSU no doubt, because Houston was just going to have an interim head coach coaching the game and the Houston players wouldn’t care a whole lot. Well, the game completely changed when they made the in-house hire with Applewhite. Major Lee will be coaching the game and have his squad fired up for sure. My gut says this will be a close game but Houston will come out in the end and win by a touchdown. The pick I’m really confident about in this game is the Over 52. Both these teams average nearly 40 points a game, and while their defenses are probably average to above average, I don’t think either will be very effective at stopping the other powerful offense. I think this game easily goes over the 52 points, and that is my best bet of the weekend! A wise man once told me, “Life is too short to bet the unders” (this guy). I don’t always follow that philosophy, but here I am definitely going with it.

• Toledo vs. Appalachian State: Appalachian State (+1)

I think this game is going to be a low key really fun game to watch. Both teams know how to score points. I think this one will go down to the last couple possessions and whoever can get a stop down the stretch will win this thing. I love the MAC Conference and hate to go against them, but App State has the better defense here and I think they get the job done and win the game in the end.

• UCF vs. Arkansas State: Arkansas State (+6)

This is another one of those games that I really don’t know much about either team. What I do know is that UCF went from an 0-12 team last year to a 6-6 team this year under first year head coach Scott Frost. I also know that UCF has lost two out of their last three and Arkansas State has won seven out of their last eight. I know UCF has played a way harder schedule, but I like Arkansas State to stay hot here. Arkansas State will keep this one close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they even won this game outright.

• Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana-Lafayette: Louisiana-Lafayette (+6)

This is going to be a strength vs. strength match up between these two teams. Southern Miss wins games with their offense and Louisiana-Lafayette wins games with their defense. I don’t imagine the ratings on this game will be very high. Shoot, I probably won’t even be watching it. The one stat that stood out to me in all of this was that Southern Miss is 3-9 ATS this year and UL-Lafayette is 8-4. Southern Miss will win this game, but I think Lafayette will play tough defense and keep it within a touchdown.

• Central Michigan vs. Tulsa: Tulsa (-13)

At first glance, this line looks way too inflated and you probably think I’m crazy (you may be right). Then you look at the two teams individually and you see that Central Michigan got off to a really hot start, but lost four out of their last five games and most of those were to the lower half of the MAC. Tulsa on the other hand has only three losses. They got blown out by Ohio State, lost to Houston by 7, and lost to Navy by 2. Those are all quality losses, but Tulsa continues to get overlooked. I think they are one of the most underrated teams in the country this year and they should be upset that they got put in the Miami Beach Bowl? (Dang it, who put the question mark on the teleprompter!) For those reasons, I like Tulsa to win big in this one.

• Western Kentucky vs. Memphis: Western Kentucky (-5)

Western Kentucky had a great year, mostly because of their head coach, the legendary Jeff Brohm. It’s a shame that he took the head job at Purdue and won’t be able to coach this game, but I don’t think it will matter. Both are solid football teams and can definitely score points, but WKU ended the year on a complete tear, and I think they will continue that even though they are without their head coach. This will be a really entertaining game and I look for WKU to win this thing by double digits. Here’s a little bonus pick to wet your beak on. The total number on this game is set at 77 right now. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if this thing gets up into the high 80s. I feel really safe with the overs in this one.

• BYU vs. Wyoming: Wyoming (+8.5)

I have no idea how this line is so high in favor of BYU. Granted, I quit paying attention to BYU after about week 4 or 5 so I don’t know what’s been going on there. I do know they lost their quarterback to an injury in their last game of the regular season. Even though their backup started all year last year and played well, it just won’t be the same. Wyoming has played great all year and I don’t see it ending here. Their defense is a little sketchy at times, but they have proved to be able to put up points and keep up with good teams. This game is going to be another fun one to watch and I see it coming down to the wire. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won this game, so I will definitely take Wyoming and the points.

 

Ahhh, there it is. That was actually a lot of fun to write and I hope you all stayed with me until the end. Bowl season is incredibly unpredictable, that’s why it’ll be a lot of fun to see how these picks do. I’ll be back again on Thursday of Friday of next week with more picks. I hope everyone has a great weekend and a happy beginning to College Football Bowl Season!

What a boring Saturday of sports yesterday was. Even though it was fun to see Army beat Navy for the first time in 15 years, the game was pretty bland for the most part. The only exciting thing that came out of the Heisman Trophy Presentation was Johnny Manziel in the spotlight again. Michigan v. UCLA was exciting for the first 20 minutes, then Lonzo Ball decided to wake up and show everyone why he’s the best player in the nation right now (let the debates begin, if there are any). In my opinion, the only thing that saved Saturday, December 10th from being the worst sports Saturday of this Fall was Notre Dame vs. Villanova. I was glued to that game from the start, and it didn’t disappoint. Nova looks like a team that could very well repeat their championship run. Experienced team with a ton of talent, and they have an alpha dog leader in Josh Hart. The only bad thing about that game? It started at 10:00 AM Mountain Time. People on the West Coast weren’t even awake for it! Oh well, there’s plenty of college basketball to be played and I couldn’t be more excited about it.

I’m going to consider yesterday’s lack of sports excitement as the calm before the storm. The storm being…(drum roll please)…COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL SEASON BABY! The Bowl schedulers did a fantastic job of lining up some great matchups for us (take note college basketball schedulers) and I couldn’t be more excited about it. I’m not going to get into it much because I’ll have my picks blog up later in the week previewing and picking every game for next weekend. Let’s just say I have my eye on a couple of juicy matchups already. Let’s just get to Bart’s MNF Special Already.

 

• Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Ravens (+7)

Is Joe Flacco elite? Meh. He had a great game last week, but don’t count on that happening two weeks in a row, or ever again for that matter. The Ravens might be the least sexy NFL team out there, but dang it, they get the job done. Their defense is really solid and just continues to get better. They have won 4 out of their last 5 and that one loss was to the Dallas Cowboys. I know they are playing the Patriots in Foxborough in primetime, but I don’t think the Pats have a good enough offense to dissect this defense. New England has been able to sleepwalk through the past three games (49ers, Jets, and Rams, oh my) and I think it’ll take them a quarter or two to wake up tomorrow night. I’m not saying the Ravens will win the game (spoiler alert: they won’t), but I am saying they will make it a slow, grind it out type football game. This game has 21-17 Patriots written all over it.

 

Man, what a great college basketball game UCLA v. Kentucky was last Saturday. Wait, you didn’t get to see it because you were watching Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma? Well certainly you got to watch the battle out west with Arizona and Gonzaga on Saturday afternoon! Oh, you didn’t see that one either because you were watching the SEC Championship game? I really shouldn’t be the one complaining, because I actually watched both basketball games while I streamed the football games on my iPad (Sweet brag about having an iPad and watching sports on it, bro). I’m not complaining for me, I’m complaining for the common sports fan, because I care about you guys!

I think everyone knows by now that college football runs the show when it comes to college sports, and it’s not even close. So why did they decide to schedule these great college basketball games on the day conference football championships are decided? Adolph Rupp and John Wooden are probably rolling over in their graves right now! Why didn’t they wait until this Saturday when there is only one college football game on all day? I figured the college basketball slate must be so jam packed this weekend that they couldn’t fit those two games in so they had to have them last weekend. False. Take a look at this Saturday’s matchups and find me ONE GAME better than the two played last Saturday. There are only 2 games in which both teams are ranked in the top 25. Honestly, there’s not really a game in that whole schedule that I really want to watch other than Nebraska @ Kansas and that could very well be a blood bath.

Look, I know that scheduling is a really hard thing to do, especially non-conference games, but you can’t give me a good enough reason as to why they played those games on CFB Conference Championship Saturday rather than Army v. Navy Saturday. I, like many other sports fans love college football and college basketball, don’t put us in a position where we have to choose between the two! College basketball schedulers, next time you’re lining up a great big non-conference opponent, maybe check the football schedule and use some common sense. That’s all I ask.

I hope I’m not the only person who got upset about this last Saturday, because if I am, I just wasted 3 minutes of my readers precious time. Alright, now on to the college football pick you have all been waiting for. Army vs. Navy, it’s go time!

Bart’s Best Bets: Week 15

Army vs. Navy: Navy (-6) and UNDER 47

This line started at Navy -11 and has worked itself all the way down to -6, and I completely understand why. Temple shut down Navy last weekend and cruised to an easy double digit victory. Navy also lost their starting quarterback for the season in the process. A bad loss and a impactful injury are never great news for a team, especially going into a rivalry game like this. Another reason the public is on Army is because they are well rested. They haven’t played a football game since November 19th. I don’t think that much rest is a good thing though. I buy into the theory that too much rest can be a bad thing. I believe this is a throw out the records kind of game, just like most rivalry games are. Each team is going to triple option each other to death and I think defense controls this game for the most part. This is a complete gut call, but I like Navy to win this one 24-17. For the record, I like the under 47 much more than Navy -6.

With only one football game on Saturday, what are all you sports fans going to do? It would be an absolute fantastic day to watch UCLA and Kentucky battle it out on the hardwood. Or maybe even Gonzaga v. Arizona. Oh well, I’ll be back on Sunday with a MNF Special. Have a great weekend!

Have you ever studied for a test so much that when it came time for the test you actually forgot everything and ended up failing the thing? I feel like that was me this weekend. I did so much research and number crunching this week in efforts to give my readers the best picks possible, and it completely came back to bite me. I studied all week, and then when it came to take the test Friday and Saturday, it all blew up in my face. I should have known that even though Western Michigan is a good football team and PJ Fleck is an incredible coach, they weren’t going to beat a good Ohio team by 19. Colorado never had a chance. I will never forgive the Troy football program for what they put me through yesterday. Picking West Virginia was completely my fault, Big 12 Football is so unpredictable it’s stupid. I know that Wisconsin and Penn State have great defenses but betting the under was OVER before it started.

I don’t want to be completely negative though. Temple, Alabama, and Clemson/VT really came through yesterday. I want to congratulate the Temple Owls for finishing the regular season at an astonishing 11-1 against the spread. That’s incredibly impressive and I’m upset they don’t get a trophy or something for that (seriously, someone should look into that).

This isn’t going to be a very long post because I promised my wife that I would put up the Christmas lights on the house this afternoon (happy wife, happy life. I think my dad said that once, or maybe it was Jim Harbaugh). I just wanted to reflect a little bit on the lesson I learned this week: Too much studying can be counterproductive. Sometimes you just need to go with your gut instinct, and I will be doing just that the rest of the way. Ok that’s false, I’ll be doing research, I just won’t go to three different weather websites to research the December 3rd forecast for Laramie, Wyoming anymore.

I do want to thank you guys for reading Double COVERage this week. My picks might not have been so great, but my dude Holst is still on fire! Since the handful of readers were so great this week (and we hope you continue reading, because this is kind of fun), I’m going to do a Monday Night Football Special Pick (with very little research). I’m officially done ranting, here’s my pick.

Bart’s Monday Night Special

• Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: Colts (-2)

HELLO! The Jets are not a good football team, and I’m pretty sure they quit playing to win the game in about week 3. On the other hand, the Colts are getting Andrew Luck back this week and have had a nice break since Thanksgiving to rest up and get healthy. With a win, the Colts would have a share of the lead in the terrible AFC South.

Bottom line: The Jets are really bad at the game they get paid to play/coach. The Colts aren’t a whole lot better, but they have their playoff lives to play for and Andrew Luck is the definition of a gamer. Give me the Colts, and I don’t think it’s really even close.