Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the 5th straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.

Pete Carroll is a good football coach. Pete Carroll might even be a great football coach. He has turned every team he has coached for into a contender, (or at least stopped them from being a laughing stock.) He has been the Head Coach of 3 different NFL franchises, which is 3 more NFL teams than 99.99999% of American males have been the head coach of. He also restored USC to its former glory, coaching them from 2000-2009, and according to some dude’s opinion on Wikipedia the team of the decade in college football. Pete Carroll is one of a handful of people to win a super bowl and a college football national championship. So with all of his accomplishments and experience, why can’t Pete Carroll get the Seahawks to win in September.

Since Pete Carroll became the head coach of the Seahawks they have been an dominate franchise in the NFC. Seattle has made the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 seasons all with Carroll as the head coach. His accomplishments in Seattle are solidified with a Super Bowl victory in 2013 over the Broncos. And yet with all that success his teams in Seattle are only 13-10 in the month of September. This season Seattle was only 1-2 in September and many people have been asking what is wrong with the Seahawks. If you followed Seattle this offseason it was easy to see this trouble was coming. In late May, ESPN published an article detailing the turmoil inside the Seahawks locker room, mostly due to the fact they lost a Super Bowl 3 years ago on a last second interception. An under reported part of the article was how much tension their is between the offense and the defense. An offense and a defense not getting along is not unique to the Seahawks. Offensive and defensive players don’t always have much in common. The interesting part of the Seahawks situation is the defensive players specifically don’t like the teams QB Russell Wilson.

The average American football fan probably roots for Russell Wilson. He is an outspoken Christian. He is a very positive person who always says the right things in the media. He even spends his free time visiting sick kids in the hospital. If Russell Wilson were elected president his approval rating would be higher than almost any football player to be hypothetically elected president. However here’s the thing about people with a perfect public perception, if you spend a lot of time around someone like that you might realize the truth, HE CORNY. The Seattle defense has definitely figured this out. Russ is so positive it becomes unrealistic, no one at their job can be 100% positive all of the time. Especially when at the very least 4 or 5 times a season every team is going to be upset by a loss, and at least once a season every team is going to be crushed when they don’t win the Super Bowl. Wilson acts like he is immune to this disappointment, always staying positive even after defeat. If Russell Wilson worked in an office he would be the guy who walks around on Monday saying “sounds like someone’s got a case of the Mondays.”

Another criticism the Seattle defense reportedly had with their QB Wilson was he gets preferential treatment from the coaching staff. The ESPN article detailed how in Seattle film sessions the coaching staff would yell at the defense and harshly criticize them but when it came to the Offense and Wilson the coaching staff would be much nicer. Which is very easy to believe if you know anything about Pete Carroll’s past. Carroll coached a number of dominate college players at USC. Just when the university was about to be busted by the NCAA for paying those dominate players, Carroll conveniently realized he wanted to fulfill his dream of coaching in the NFL again and left for Seattle. Pete Carroll was paying Reggie Bush’s entire family rent every month just because he was a Heisman RB, not difficult at all to believe he would go soft on Russell Wilson in a film session. (Russell Wilson not being yelled at in a film session doesn’t have anything to do with the fact Reggie Bush was being paid at USC, but I wasn’t gonna write about Pete Carroll and not mention the fact he was breaking the rules at USC and right before the school got busted he bailed and left the school to pay for his mistakes. Pete is a horrible person for that and the world needs reminded.)

The reason the Seattle defense most dislikes their QB Russell Wilson is they believe he is overpaid. Two years ago Wilson signed a 100 million dollar contract to stay in Seattle which is what many great QBs do at his age. But once he is paid that much there are certain expectations that go along with that. Wilson is a great QB but every time the team does not win or Wilson throws an INT it is easy to think, ‘why is this guy getting paid 100 million dollars, is he worth it? Is anyone?’ Mostly the reason the defense doesn’t like it is now the team has less money to pay other players and over the course of the last 5 years the Seattle defense has lost a few great players because they could not afford to pay them. The obvious reason his contract is a problem for Wilson is no one likes a rich guy (except the voters of the United States.) Every high school has that one kid who gets a BMW or some very expensive car they don’t need for their 16^th birthday. No one ever has genuinely liked that kid. People might pretend to like the kid who drives a Cadillac to school so they can get a ride, but secretly behind their back everyone else makes fun of that kid. Wilson has become the high schooler who drives a BMW.

My Favorite reason the Seahawks defense doesn’t like Wilson is the perception that Russell Wilson isn’t black enough. The Seahawks defense has approximately -1 white players in their starting lineup, which is not uncommon for the NFL. Russell Wilson on the other hand might actually be the whitest black person of all time. He went to college in Wisonsin, a state’s black population that can be counted on Jason Pierre Paul’s hand. Wilson’s voice sounds like Joel Osteen preaching a sermon. And in the most White move of all time Wilson runs his instagram account like a 16 year old girl who just got her first boyfriend. We can debate all day about the idea the perception of being black or white and whether that is right or wrong but facts are facts. The Instagram account doesn’t lie, Russell Wilson might as well be the NFL version of Hannah Montana. Shocking to believe Michael Bennant and Richard Sherman doesn’t like him.

All this locker room turmoil between Carroll, Wilson, and the Seattle defense, combined with history of losing in September created an obvious bubble for the Seahawks this season. Seattle started the year 1-2 in September and signs pointed to the team having a down year. Then last Sunday the calendar flipped to October and the Seahawks started the month by destroying the Colts in the second half of Sunday night football 45-18. Pete and Russ might have finally woke their offense up after September ended, and the rest of the NFL might need to be worried.

Week 5 NFL Picks

All Lines used from Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest

Browns -110

49ers +100

Seahawks +100

Browns -110

This is the point where you should stop reading because clearly I’ve lost my mind betting on the 0-4 Cleveland Browns. But stay with me for a second, don’t think of this as betting on the Browns, think of it as getting a -110 moneyline bet against the Jets who are on the road! The Jets came into this season with as low of expectations as possible, and somehow they are 2-2. The Jets have won their last 2 games who were both at home and now people think they are going on the road and winning? I don’t think so. This will also be the first game for 2017 number one overall pick Myles Garrett who will provide a much needed pass rush for the Browns. Even though the Browns stadium has been referred to as the factory of sadness, it is still a clear advantage playing the lowly Jets. This game will be ugly, but nobody does ugly better than Cleveland.

49ers +100

Ok at this point I have no idea why you’re still reading. I’m picking not 1 but 2, 0-4 teams?! That’s right this is the week the Niners get their first win also. Unlike the Browns the Niners have actually showed some signs of life, losing their last 3 games by a combined 8 points. Playing the Colts who’s only win has come at home against the Browns. I think the Niners offense is good enough to outscore Jacoby Brissett and a home coming for former Colt Pierre Garcon, look for him to have a big game.

Seahawks +100

Like I said above, the Seahawks suck in September, good thing September ended 8 days ago. The September Seahawks are dead and the October Hawks are looking great winning last week 45-18. Many people are excited about the Rams this season who have put up some incredible numbers. Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and Sean Mcvay are the talk of the NFL and some would say they’re so hot right now. There’s good reason to believe the Rams will be an exciting team this year, but people are forgetting something, THE SEAHAWKS OWN THE NFC WEST. Don’t be so fast to crown the young Rams just yet, the Seahawks have won this division 3 out of the last 4 years and they aren’t about to lose it this year to the Rams. I like Seattle to remind the league how dominate they can be by shutting down the darling of the season, the LA Rams.

Record ATS to date: 6-7

Thank you to everyone for reading. Be sure to check out Bart’s Best Bets for college picks and come back next week for more NFL. Happy week 5 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football. 

Another 2-3 weekend for your boy over here. Would have been 3-2 but Florida scored a garbage time TD to turn a 7 point win into a 14 point win and cover the 10 points. That’s the second time this season Florida has burned me on the last play of the game. That’s probably a sign that I need to quit trashing how bad their offense is and just appreciate how they always find ways to win games.

I’m not here to talk about Florida Gator football though, I’m here to talk about the greatest interim head coach of all time, Edward Jim Orgeron Jr. I am choosing to write about him this week only because this could be the last week he is coaching a football team for awhile, maybe forever. Coach O and the LSU Football team started out the season on fire, beating BYU 27-0 and then Chattanooga 45-10. They went on to get absolutely stomped by Mississippi State 37-7, but then rebounded against Syracuse 35-26. It wasn’t time to panic though, they were 3-1 heading into their homecoming game Troy this past weekend. Easy win right? Wrong. LSU ended up losing that game 24-21 and the final score was a lot closer than the actual game. They were trailing the whole game and poor Coach O just couldn’t find the answers. LSU is 3-2 going into the heart of SEC play and the media has officially put Orgeron on the hot seat.

A lot of people may wonder why he’s feeling pressure to win so early, but if you dig deep into his head coaching record, there is a trend that is impossible to ignore. Coach O has a head coaching record of 25-31, which is not great, but then you look even deeper into his head coaching record and you notice that he is 13-27 when he is the head coach at the beginning of the season. That’s a terrible record, so why is he a head coach for one of the most prominent football programs in the SEC? Because his interim head coaching record is outstanding. Coach O is an astounding 12-4 when taking over a team as the interim head coach. That’s a winning percentage of .750! For some reason, Coach O cannot put together a decent team over a whole season, but give him a squad that just had their coach fired and he can lead them to a bowl win.

So here’s what I think Orgeron should do. Assuming they lose to Florida on Saturday, he should simply fire himself from the head coaching position right after the game, maybe even before he gets on the team plane. Then on Monday, The AD should hire him back as the interim head coach because he was the only qualified candidate for the job. Then LSU will rip through the rest of their SEC schedule and end up beating Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl (something like that). There’s still time for LSU to salvage their season, but interim Coach O has to save the day ASAP as possible.

On a more realistic note, I can’t wait to watch him breakdown football as an ESPN analyst next year. I love Coach O more than the average person, but he might be the worst head coach of all time. I don’t care how many bowls of gumbo he can eat or what kind of worms he puts in his mouth.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Saturday, October 7th

Georgia @ Vanderbilt (+18)

Feel free to go the other way in this one, because Georgia looks dang good right now, and Vandy has lost two in a row. I just think there is real nice value with Vandy getting over two touchdowns in this game at home. The first thing I always look for when I’m picking games is home underdogs, and this line screamed at me. There’s really no logic here, because all of the stats and trends are in Georgia’s favor. This is a classic “BartSauce has a feeling pick”. Vandy will be happy to get back home to play in front of their fans. I think they’ll hang tough for two or three quarters and then Georgia’s running game will finally break loose in the fourth and win by 10-14 points. Georgia is most definitely a top 10 team in this league, but I like Vandy to cover in this one. Anybody that’s smart will fade this pick.

Miami (-3) @ Florida State

I normally don’t like picking road favorites, but I just can’t resist with this one. Remember when we took Miami over 9 wins a long time ago? Well, this game was one that we counted as a sure loss for Miami. That was obviously before Florida State lost their stud starting quarterback for the year. Since then the Seminoles have gone 1-1 with a home loss to NC State and a last minute road win against Wake Forest. Now let’s turn to the Hurricanes, they are 3-0 and haven’t had a close game to date. They are good at scoring points and even better at stopping the other team from scoring points. It seems like that famous Turnover Chain makes a weekly appearance. This one is pretty simple, these are two teams heading in two different directions. The U is back and it’s time for them to make it official. I think Miami wins this one by at least a touchdown and looks forward to heading home for a couple weeks.

LSU @ Florida (-3)

I have been on the wrong side of the Florida Gators all season and I think this is finally time to get right with them. I’ve been dogging on Florida all year about how they don’t have a capable quarterback and can’t score points on offense. Well here’s the truth, Florida has an elite defense and their offense is getting better each week and I’m ready to roll with the Gators. I already talked about LSU in the intro, but the bottom line with them is that they just just aren’t good at football this year. Last week’s loss is almost impossible to get over within a week, and I think it’s just going to get worse. LSU is a good defensive team, but unfortunately they are not good on the offensive side of the football and will not have any success against the Gator defense. This should be a low scoring game, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if all hell broke lose for LSU and Florida put up 40 on them, Sorry, Coach O. I consider Florida -3 a gift.

Missouri @ Kentucky (-10)

Here are some quick stats on this years Missouri team. They have a record of 1-3. The closest loss they have had this season was by 18 points to South Carolina. All four of their games so far have been at HOME! They are making their first road trip of the season to Kentucky. Kentucky is not a bad football team, people. They are literally two points away from having a 5-0 record. Kentucky is a confident and hungry football team, Missouri is the opposite. The Wildcats have to be licking their chops with this one. This probably isn’t a game many people are going to watch, and hopefully I won’t have to watch it for very long before Kentucky has this thing wrapped up. The Wildcats should win this game by at least two touchdowns. Keep an eye on this UK squad, I think they are going to surprise some people come November.

Washington State/Oregon OVER 60

I honestly just noticed that three out of my first four game picks are SEC matchups and the other pick is between two Florida teams. I didn’t plan that, I promise. Anyway, let’s end this thing with some PAC-12 after dark action, shall we? As you probably know by know, I love the over in PAC-12 games that start after 8:00 PM, and this game is no exception. Actually, this game is an exception because it starts at 5:00 Pacific Time, and it will be very light out in Eugene. I don’t care, I still want the over. We almost hit the over in the Washington State v. USC game last week but Sam Darnold just couldn’t help but turn the ball over in their last possession (classic). I don’t know who wins this game, but I know it’s going to be a really fun game to watch. Oregon is averaging almost 50 points per game and their lowest scoring game of the season is 35. Washington State is averaging 41 points per game and their lowest score is 30 (last week). So even if both teams tie their season low in points (30 and 35), this thing still goes over. I haven’t hit a total for like three weeks, but I am confident that I finally get on the right side of one this week. I think the final score of the game will be somewhere around 45-42 and I’ll let you pick the winner because it’s a toss up.

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 13-12 (10-7 ATS, 3-5 O/U)

There you have it, folks, Week 6 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you like watching SEC Football, because I gave you a good dose of it this week. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. We had our THIRD bad round of picks last weekend and I expect to bounce back this week. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 5 picks!

Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the 4th straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.

I don’t want to do this. I don’t want to waste time writing about serious political issues when I should be wasting time writing about stupid football things. I really wanted to write about how much I hate the Chargers, and the city of LA having two football teams, and specifically how much I absolutely can’t stand Phil Rivers for no good reason other than I hate his stupid face. Instead the President decided to open his mouth and word vomit all over a crowd in Alabama, telling them he wishes NFL owners would fire players who took a knee in protest for the National Anthem. 

Let’s start with this, I don’t really follow politics. I think its boring, and depressing, and much less fun that obsessively following sports. I know President Trump has said some crazy things before but I actively do not pay attention to any of the things he says or tweets. This time was different, Trump stepped out of the Presidential world of politics and stepped into the world of the NFL, that’s when I started paying attention. Trump’s comments made one things clear, he feels players who are kneeling during the anthem are disrespecting the United States and the flag. Which is the most obvious ’70 year old white guy’ opinion on the NFL. The players who are kneeling are actually protesting police brutality toward minorities in the United States. The reason players are kneeling instead of sitting is based on the advice former Seattle Seahawk and Green Beret, Nate Boyer, gave to Colin Kaepernick a year ago when the protests first started. Based on the President’s comments, I believe he does not know any of that.

So what was President Trumps goal when addressing the NFL anthem protests? Did he hope the owners would actually fire players who knelt and the protest would stop? If that was his goal he is going about it all wrong. Anyone who’s ever made a deal with a small child knows yelling at them to stop is never going to result in the solution you’re looking for. Put yourself in this situation,  a small child around 7 or 8 years old is sitting in the drivers seat of a car and refuses to move. You need to get in the driver’s seat to drive the car to your hypothetical destination. If you yell at the child and say “GET THIS SON A BITCH OUT OF THE FRONT SEAT HES FIRED!” How do you think that child is going to react? Yelling at people and calling them names is no way to get them to do what you want, and everyone over the age of 9 knows that except for Donald Trump.

Maybe President Trump’s goal was not to stop anthem protests but simply make a point. If that is the case, WHY IS TRUMP TALKING ABOUT THE NFL IN THE FIRST PLACE, THATS FOR LOSER BLOGGERS LIKE ME TO DO, NOT SOMEONE WHO IS IN CHARGE OF THE NUCLEAR LAUNCH CODES. I don’t know what a President is supposed to be doing on a day to day basis, but its safe to assume the President of the United States has a pretty packed schedule. At my job during the day I normally find less than 15 minutes to check twitter and tweet my thoughts about the NFL. How is someone with the most important job in the country finding time to tweet 20 times a day about the NFL?

This may be the first time a sitting President has voiced such strong opinions against NFL players, but this is not the first time Donald Trump has been involved with a football league. A lifetime ago Donald Trump bought  franchise in the upstart United States Football League, a spring league looking to compete with the NFL. Long story short the league folded after 3 seasons and the primary reason why was Donald Trump demanded the league move from the spring to the fall. If you watch the 30 for 30 documentary on the USFL basically everyone involved agrees if Trump had never owned a team the league would not have gone defunct. Which brings me to another theory, is Donald Trump trying to destroy the NFL just like he did the USFL. Clearly there is a precedent set by this president for destroying football leagues, he’s done it once, what’s to say he won’t do it again. Trumps criticism of NFL owners may lead to them actually firing players, leading to a watered down product, leading to the folding of the NFL. This is an unlikely theory but so was one man taking down the USFL.

Last theory; I started this blog by asking what does Trump hope to accomplish by bashing NFL players? It makes no sense assuming the President of the United States has a lot more important things to do than follow sports. Maybe he has screwed up those more important things so bad he needed to create a distraction so the American people don’t realize how terrible he is at his job. I may be a little too into conspiracy theory but after watching 5 seasons of House of Cards on Netflix I’m pretty sure I understand how politics works. The President starts a controversy by design with the worlds most popular sports league, and millions of Americans spend the coming weeks reactivating to what he said and arguing with each other. Meanwhile the Trump administration can continue to ruin relations with North Korea, fail to give American’s health care, or any number of horrible political things. Stay woke everyone, most likely Trump is encouraging this controversy as a distraction to the fact he is not good at his job.

And finally if you’re still upset about players kneeling for the anthem, don’t blame Colin Kaepernick, blame the NFL. Before 2009, NFL players did not even come out of the locker room for the National Anthem. In 2009 the NFL made a deal with the US government to have players stand on the field for the anthem to seem more patriotic (wow did that backfire).  Before Kaepernick began protesting last season the anthem was never even available for the TV audience. The anthem was always played during a commercial break and only the people in the stadium could participate. In 2015 it was discovered that 14 NFL teams had been paid by the department of defense (thats the government department not something related to the ’85 Bears) to honor soldiers during games to make a show of patriotism. NFL teams were literally accepting money to seem more patriotic. If you wanna blame Kaepernick for all this, fine be wrong, who’s really to blame is the greedy NFL owners and greedy US government for taking advantage of staged acts of patriotism in the first place.

Tired of national anthem talk yet? me too. All of this is exhausting and what have we accomplished? Kaepernick still is unemployed, Trump is still ignoring the importance of his job, and people on both the left and the right are mad for who knows what reason. Let’s not forget why we watch football in the first place. To put our differences aside for a few hours and make money gambling on grown men who play a game wearing capri pants.

NFL Picks Week 4

All Lines used from Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest

Vikings -130

Chargers -125

Giants +3

6.5 point teaser Patriots -2.5 Falcons -1.5

 

Vikings -130

I’m not actually gonna bet on Case Keenum right? I’M NOT ACTUALLY GONNA BET ON CASE KEENUM RIGHT?!?! I know this sounds like a bad idea but the Vikings are 2-0 at home this season and their defense has been leading them only allowing 18 PPG at home this season. On offense the Vikings are led by Stefon Diggs who has absolutly been BALLIN out this season, he’s third in the league in yards and 2nd in the league in TDs. Rookie RB Dalvin Cook has been a huge factor as well averaging 96 rushing yards per game which is 2nd in the league. As for Case Keenum (gulp) he didn’t look horrible last week. Also people easily forget Keenum threw for almost 20K yards in college and over 150 TDs. (always a good sign when you have to look up a dudes college stats to make yourself feel better about a bet.)

Chargers -125

This is a tough game to pick because the Double COVERage team has the Chargers season win total under 7.5 wins. This is also a tough pick because Phillip Rivers might be the worst person to root for in the history of sports. Rooting for Phillip Rivers is like rooting for Jaden Smith to win an oscar. It must be a sad life for the one Chargers fan who still somehow supports this team. They can’t even sell out a 25 thousand seat soccer stadium with the help of opposing fans making up half the crowd. Even with this game being in LA and the majority of the fans being Philly fans I think the Chargers win. The Chargers have had a brutal schedule to start the season but they are much more talented than their 0-3 record shows. The Chargers have found some crazy ways to lose games so far this year. I think Sunday they find a way to win their first.

Giants +3

Ben Mcadoo might be the worst coach in all of football and I wouldn’t be shocked if he is fired at some point during the season. Without the 4th quarter of last weeks game against the Eagles, the Giants offense had only managed 13 points in 11 quarters of football. Fortunately for them they somehow scored 24 points in the 4th quarter of last Sundays game. Maybe it was a fluke, maybe their offense is finally waking up. Either way the Giants are too talanted of a team, especially on defense, to start the season 0-4. If the Giants don’t find a way to win this game, and start the season 0-4, then Eli Manning should be forced to give back one of his Super Bowl MVPs.

6.5 point tease: Patriots -2.5 Falcons -1.5

If this sounds familiar its because this was almost the exact same bet I made week 1, when I took the Falcons over the Bears and the Patriots over the Chiefs. Well now we know the Cheifs are actually good and the Panthers are terrible. Even though the Patriots have given up the most amount of points in the league this year, the Panthers have barely been able to move the ball at all. And just like last week, even if the Patriots give up 33, you always expect Brady to find a way to score 34. The Falcons on the other hand are very lucky to be 3-0. However I am confidently taking my team at home against the surprising 2-1 Bills. The Falcons at home score 30 points in their sleep. Even if the Bills have the number defense in the league they are facing the number one offense in the league from last year. Buffalo’s offense won’t be able to keep up in a shootout with the Falcons.

Record ATS to date: 5-4

Thank you to everyone for reading. Be sure to check out Bart’s Best Bets for college picks and come back next week for more NFL. Happy week 4 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football. 

 

I have been really bad at picking games the past two weeks, and I owe all of you readers an apology. I am always confident in my picks and I feel like I give good reasoning behind them too. I understand that everyone has their bad weeks, but the bottom line is that 3-7 the last two weeks is downright unacceptable. So here’s my promise to you, I am going to spend less time trying to think of a clever introduction to the blog, and more time working on my picks. Sure, I’ll post a lengthy introduction every once in a while, but the majority of the time I will pretty much go straight to the picks. That’s what you guys are here for anyway, right? I appreciate you all that are still reading this every week. It’s time to turn this thing back in the positive direction.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Friday, September 29th

USC @ Washington State (+6) and OVER 61

This is my first double pick of the year and I am in love with it. You guys have heard me say it a couple times already this year. USC is highly overrated, and I will continue to pick against them until the media and Vegas realize it, which could be awhile. The main reason I love WSU and the overs in this one is because of Luke Falk and how powerful this Mike Leach Washington State offense is. This guy has already thrown for over 1,300 yards and has 14 TD passes and only 1 interception this season. Washington State is averaging 44 ppg this season and I expect them to score just as much in this game. With two first round draft picks playing quarterback, this game is bound to be a shootout (if Sam Darnold can keep up). Washington State has had this game circled on their calendar since the schedule came out and something seems off with USC. I don’t like to predict scores, but I think Washington State wins this one by a score of 48-45 (something like that). This game is being played on Friday night, so it’s a great opportunity to start week 5 on the right foot.

Saturday, September 30th

Vanderbilt (+10) @ Florida

I feel like this is contrarian play, but Florida should not be favored by 10 points to this Vandy squad. Sure, Vanderbilt got absolutely destroyed by Alabama last weekend, but who isn’t getting destroyed by Bama this year? If this game was played last week, Florida would have been favored by a field goal, maybe. So you’re telling me a blowout to the best team in college football swung this line by a touchdown? Either way, I’ll take it. Florida has a great defense, but they still haven’t figured out the quarterback situation. This game will be like every Florida game so far this year, a grind fest. Both teams will struggle to score points in this one and I think Florida will put together a late fourth quarter drive to win by a field goal. I will glady take Vandy and the 10 points.

Clemson @ Virginia Tech (+7.5)

I think this is another contrarian play, but I think people are under estimating Virginia Tech here. Clemson is a very good football team and will probably win the ACC, but  Blacksburg at night is one of the toughest environments in college football. Clemson has a great defense and can score in bunches as well. I think Virginia Tech will try to grind out long possessions on offense and keep this thing close the whole way. Clemson’s QB is unexperienced and has already thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year and VT’s defense will look to expose him. Needless to say, I am really excited to watch this game and I think it’ll come down to the last possession. I’m not sure who wins, but I really like Virginia Tech +7.5.

Ole Miss @ Alabama (-27.5)

I tend to over think things a lot, but Alabama absolutely crushing opponents is something I will not over think. They just got done putting a 59-0 whooping on a decent Vandy team, and that was on the road! Now they have a bad Ole Miss football team at home? I think ol Saban is licking his chops on this one. 27.5 looks like a huge number against an SEC opponent, but the only team that can stop Alabama is themselves. Nick Saban has no heart and will continue to beat opponents by 30+ points per game. It’s time to get on the Alabama train, or as I like to call it, “The Money Train”

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 11-9 (8-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

There you have it, folks. Short, sweet, and to the point. Week 5 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. We had our SECOND bad round of picks last weekend and I expect to bounce back this week. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 4 picks!

Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the third straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.

There is a 100% chance Trevor Siemian has been mistaken for the ball boy at some point during his NFL career. He played at a college known for producing more douchey ESPN personalities than NFL players. And yet somehow Its week 3 of the 2017 NFL season, and Trevor Siemian is the best Quarterback in the NFL. Siemian is currently leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 6. He has a passer rating this season of 106.9 (which I have no idea how good that is but Scott Tolzien has a rating of 33.8 so I know Siemian is significantly better than that.) Most importantly Trevor Siemian is the starting QB for a team that is undefeated. A season ago Trevor Siemian started 14 games and went 8-6 on a team that was coming off a super bowl victory. Siemian spent most of the season looking like drunk John Elway on the field, rather than looking like the best QB in the NFL. The season ended with the defending Super Bowl Champs missing the playoffs and many Bronco fans questioning who would be the starting QB for the team would be next season. So what changed? How did Siemian go from fighting for his job a few weeks ago, to leading the NFL in touchdown passes after week 2? The answer is more complicated than you think.

Did you get a chance to watch the Thursday night football game was week between the Bengals and Texans? What about the Monday night football game between the Lions and Giants? If you have a life unlike me and actually accomplish tasks during the evening when football is on; I’ll catch you up on what you missed. The Bengals, Texans, Lions, and Giants combined for 4 total offensive touchdowns in 8 quarters of play. The two games featured QBs Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Andy Dalton who have been to a combined 8 Pro Bowls. It also featured rookie Deshaun Watson who was drafted 12th overall in this years draft and is coming off a college season where he won a number of awards and won a national championship. These 2 games also featured WR Golden Tate, AJ Green, Deandre Hopkins, and Odell Beckham Jr, all of whom have made at least 1 pro bowl. How is it possible these 4 teams with this much talent, experience, and fire power only manage to score 4 TDs in 8 quarters of play? The Lions, Texans, Bengals, and Giants all have prominent QBs and WRs who anyone would want on their fantasy team. How is it possible they struggle so much to score yet Trevor Siemian is leading the league in TD passes.

If you did get a chance to watch the Monday night football game you might have noticed Eli Manning and Matt Stafford were sacked a lot, 9 times combined to be exact. The explanation for this is the left tackles for both teams had horrific games.  Ereck Flowers for the Giants had a Pro Football Focus (or PFF) grade of 40.9 (out of 100) and Greg Robinson for the Lions had a PFF grade of 31.4. What is strange about this is both of this guys were former top 10 overall draft picks. Maybe Eli Odell, and Stafford and Tate haven’t hit some kind of back slide but instead their offensive lines are not helping them out enough to move the ball and score TDs.

The Bengals Texans Thursday night game was no different. The Bengals offensive line had a average PFF grade of 40.4!! (again this is a score out of 100) The Texans O-line was not much better averaging a PFF grade of 41.9. I know most of you don’t read this to see stats you don’t understand but hear me out. Are Eli, Stafford, Dalton, and Waston all bad QBs who can’t take advantage of their star WRs? Or is their a lack of quality offensive linemen in the league to protect these QBs giving them enough time to throw to their star wideouts. A possible theory to explain the lack of production from offensive lineman is the lack of a preseason. Most teams have turned the preseason into an audition for young players to earn a roster spot. While the players already making millions of dollars will play a series and then spend 2 hours on the bench trying to eat hotdogs without fans noticing. The preseason is supposed to be a valuable time for linemen to get their chemistry and footing down before the real season begins. Instead coaches are too afraid to have their starting 22 get hurt they refuse to play them in the preseason.

So what does any of this have to do with the man boy who looks more likely to lead his grad school class in GPA, than to lead an NFL team to a super bowl, Trevor Siemian? Last season Siemian didn’t play great, but given what he was working with he wasn’t playing terrible either. In 2016 the Broncos had a terrible offensive line, and their top RB CJ Anderson was hurt for a majority of the season. Denver went out and revamped the Oline, drafted Garett Bolles in the first round to play left tackle and be the corner stone of the offensive line for years to come. The Broncos went out and signed former division foe and pro bowler Jamaal Charles to help their backfield. CJ Anderson is also healthy again and has dominated the first two games averaging 100 yards per game. So what does an improved offensive line, and a healthy running game mean for Trevor Siemian? He looks like the best QB in the NFL. With pass protection and the ability to run the ball Trevor Siemian is allowed to have time to find receivers for TDs.

Trevor Siemian may not be the most talented QB in the League, but he’s been playing like the best QB in the League the first two games because the Broncos have put him in a position to succeed. Surrounding him with a solid offensive line, great running game, and an unbelievable defense. The media spends so much time dissecting quarterback play, comparing, ranking, trying to decide who is elite and who isn’t. What they fail to mention so often is who is surrounding a QB matters so much. Last season Dak Prescott as a rookie led the cowboys to a 13-3 record and was considered an MVP candidate. Is Dak Prescott a great QB? Time will tell, but in 2016 he was given the best offensive line in football, and a great running back. This allowed Dak to minimize his risks and help his team win 13 games, Trevor Siemian may be able to do the exact same thing this season.

Is Eli washed? maybe. Is Andy Dalton drastically overrated? maybe. Is Trevor Siemian the best QB in the League? maybe. I’m just some dude who learned how to type words into the computer and hasn’t played football since my freshman year of high school. But I do know this for certain. The players around these quarterbacks, Offensive linemen, Running backs, and coaches, matter a lot more to these quarterbacks success than we give them credit for. Trevor Siemian might lead the Broncos to the Super Bowl this year, and he won’t deserve that much credit. Just like he didn’t deserve the blame for the team missing the playoffs last year. Let’s just hope if the Broncos do make the super bowl, Siemian will stop getting mistaken for the ball boy.

NFL Picks Week 3

All Lines used from the Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest

Broncos -3

Steelers Packers Patriots: Moneyline parley -148

Steelers Packers Patriots: Moneyline Parley -148

3 team moneyline parley for a -148 payout doesn’t seem like the most lucrative bet but this isn’t about making a sexy pick, this is about picking a winner, and I think all 3 of these are winners. Steelers are 2-0 and go on the road to take on the Bears and the corpse of Mike Glennon. Pittsburgh hasn’t been great on the road in the Big Ben era, but the Bears are not a good football team. Meanwhile the Steelers are a good football team, and usually good football teams beat bad football teams. Packers are 1-1 at home taking on the Bengals who are a few weeks away from realizing they should have fired Marvin Lewis 2 years ago. The Packers are in a good position to bounce back from the loss Sunday night in Atlanta by beating up on the 0-2 Bengals. Finally the Patriots are at home against a rookie QB. Bill Belicheat is 1,548-0 against rookie QBs in his head coaching career. You don’t even need to pay attention to this one, the Texans aren’t winning in Foxborough.

Broncos -3

The Broncos travel for the first time all season, where they are in Buffalo to play the Bills. The Bills are somehow 2-0 ATS this season probably due to the fact they got to open the season playing the JV squad known as the Jets. Last week in Carolina the Bills only were able to put up 3 points. The Panthers have a good defense but the Broncos defense is even better. The best compliment you can give the Bills all season is their teams effort is great despite the fact management clearly wants to tank after trading Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby in August. The Broncos will move to 3-0 beating the Bills easily.

 

Record ATS to date: 5-2

Thank you to everyone for reading. Be sure to check out Bart’s Best Bets for college picks and come back next week for more NFL. Happy week 3 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football. 

 

 

As you guys probably know by now, there are a few people in college football that I am rather obsessed with. PJ Fleck (Row the Boat) is my favorite coach and an inspiration to me, Jeff Brohm is pure football guy, Jim Harbaugh is rough around the edges, doesn’t care what anybody thinks, and he’s a bigger football guy than Brohm is. Then there is Mike Gundy and his mullet. Gundy is the ultimate wildcard in the college football world, and his mullet is even more mysterious. He started growing it in the Spring of 2016 (1.5 years ago), and he now has the best head of hair in all of college football (sorry, Dana). I don’t know if you guys know this or not, but this mullet is not the only one he’s ever had. He had one when he was going to college and playing for Oklahoma State back in the late 1980s and it’s even better than his current head of hair! People may be wondering why Mike Gundy feels the desire to grow this luscious mullet. There are several reasons he could be doing this: recruiting, superstition, or maybe his wife really likes it. I have thought about all of these, and they are very possible, but I think there is one reason he is growing this mullet and one reason only: To distract the media from covering how FREAKING AWESOME HIS FOOTBALL TEAM IS! Ahhh, after 239 words I have finally gotten to my point. In this weeks AP Poll, Oklahoma State is ranked 6th and is behind both USC and Penn State. Here’s the deal, USC is not a top 10 football team, and Penn State only beat Pittsburgh by 19 points while Oklahoma State doubled that and beat Pittsburgh by a whopping 38 points! I know that the rankings will work themselves out eventually, but I have no idea how they aren’t ranked in the top 4 yet. They have the best offense in college football this year, no one can argue that. At least two if not three of their wide receivers could be starting NFL wide receivers right now and their quarterback, Mason Rudolph will be a Heisman candidate and will most likely be a top 10 draft pick in the 2018 NFL draft. I know they haven’t really played anybody worth noting yet, but the defense is pretty stout as well (for a Big 12 team). I know you guys did not come to read about how great Oklahoma State is (except Eric Gengenbach), but gosh dang it, you guys need to start paying attention to them because they are such a fun team to watch. Don’t wait until they play Oklahoma on November 4th, start watching now. Here’s my hot take of the week and I’ll finally shut up and get to the picks: Oklahoma State is not only the best team in Oklahoma, but they are the best team in the Big 12 Conference and Mike Gundy and his mullet will lead them to the College Football Playoff this year. I know what you’re thinking, it literally took me a week to bet against Baker Mayfield and his Oklahoma squad, but that’s how good this Cowboy team is.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Saturday, September 23rd

TCU @ Oklahoma State (-13)

If you read the introduction, then you all know how I feel about Oklahoma State at this point so I won’t repeat myself, but I do have some interesting stats on TCU that makes me like this even more. It’s pretty simple, they gave up 36 points to SMU last weekend on 463 total yards and 363 through the air. That is terrible news for TCU, because I’m about 99% sure that OSU’s offense is like two times better than SMU’s. When I originally started writing this on Tuesday, OSU was favored by 11, but that didn’t last long. I thought long and hard about taking it off my board when it shot to 13, but I’m going to stick to my guns here. Oklahoma State at home against an inferior opponent favored by less than two touchdowns (barely)? I’ll take that everyday of the week. Oklahoma State wins by 14 or more on Saturday. Tune in and enjoy the air show, you won’t regret it I promise. Bonus pick: I also like the over 72 in this one.

UCF/Maryland OVER 59.5

I’m not sure why, but when I was looking at the board on Monday, this one caught my eye for some reason. Maybe it’s because I haven’t seen UCF on the board for a couple weeks since their games have either been cancelled or postponed. Meanwhile, Maryland has gotten off to a nice 2-0 start and they have outscored their opponents 114-58. UCF has been on the rise ever since Scott Frost arrived there and I think they will continue to do so (until he leaves of course, which could be sooner than later). Bottom line here is that both teams like to score points, and I’m not sure how great (or interested) the defenses will be at stopping those high powered offenses. Those sound like perfect ingredients for an over to me.

USC @ California (+17)

This honestly might be my favorite pick of the weekend, and it just goes to show how overrated of a team USC is. Sure, they have a top 10 pick playing quarterback (not as good as Mason Rudolph). Everyone is talking about how great of a win USC had against Texas last Saturday. Yeah, it was a fun game to watch, but Texas is not a good football team and if USC was an actual top 5 team in the nation they would have creamed Texas by double digits! Meanwhile, the Cal Bears, chosen to finish dead last in the PAC-12 South is off to a nice 3-0 start and just had a hard fought 27-16 win against Ole Miss. I honestly think this is going to be a great game that comes down to the end. USC is just not as good as the media thinks they are and California is a confident football team right now. At the very least California will give USC a real scare, so I will graciously take the 17 points they are giving me with this one.

Michigan @ Purdue (+10)

This is a match up between two of my favorite football guys: Jim “Milk Man” Harbaugh and Jeff “Street Fight Between the Whistles” Brohm. I feel like I’m obligated to take Purdue for the third week straight because they just keep on covering the spread (3-0 so far). Purdue continues to be a better football team than anyone realizes and I will continue to take advantage of it. I was just listening to Jim Harbaugh’s podcast and he was talking about how good of a football team Purdue is and that Brohm is well on his way to winning Big Ten Coach of the Year. That is obviously just Harbaugh coach speaking, but there is a lot of truth to that. I’ve read that Purdue is going to have their first sellout in years. I’m not sure how crazy Purdue football fans can be, but I feel like they will reach their full potential this weekend in West Lafayette. Michigan is not in the business of blowing teams out this year, the defense is elite, but the offense just does not have the fire power to do it. Purdue is confident, motivated, and will be super prepared for this game. I think Michigan wins the game by 3-7 points.

Washington/Colorado OVER 50.5

This total really surprised me when a first saw it, and I still can’t believe these two teams are hovering around 50 total points. Washington can put up points with the best of them and Colorado isn’t all that bad on that end either. I think they set this total so low because they are both ranked in the top 15 in team defense so far this year. Here’s why I think that is: they really haven’t played any high powered offenses yet this year. Washington is clearly the better team here and will look to set the pace early, forcing Colorado to follow suit. I figured this line would be set somewhere around 60-65, and I think that’s where this game will be at when it’s all said and done. This game could turn into a low key shoot out, who knows with PAC-12 after dark. All I know is that I will be rooting for the over in this game and hoping that it stays exciting enough to keep me up past 10:00!

 

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 10-5 (7-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U)

There you have it, folks. Week 4 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading (especially you, Eric) and enjoy my picks this week even more. We had our first bad round of picks last weekend and I expect to bounce back this week. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 3 picks!

Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the Second straight week. Welcome to NFL Sunday.

Words cannot describe how excited I was for the NFL to be back last Thursday night when the Chiefs took on the Patriots in Foxbrough. Roger Goodell showed up to New England to watch the Pats raise their 5th banner and celebrate the fact that NFL football was finally back. Like most people, I expected the Patriots to roll over the Chiefs quickly and effectively like the well oiled machine the Patriots are. I expected Brady to throw a couple TDs to whatever new white WR Bill Belichick picked up from the local YMCA that afternoon and the Pats to win no problem. I confidently took the Patriots -2.5 on a teaser and figured I could fall asleep around the 3rd quarter with no worries. Only there was a worry, the Patriots lost. Not only did they lose, but they blew a lead! (cue the new ‘Patriots blew a 17-7 lead jokes’). How in the hell could the Patriots lose on opening night at home? I was for sure the Patriots winning on opening night was inevitable, like death, taxes, or the fact that Kobe Bryant raped that girl in Colorado. So what went wrong? Are the Chiefs that good? Are the Patriots in for a long year? All I know is facts, and here’s a fact; Tom Brady is 40, and that’s not nothing.

“History repeats itself” is that just a meaningless quote history teachers tell high schoolers in order to get them to shut up when they ask why they have to learn about World War 2? Or is it a true statement? (As a high school history teacher I can tell you its both.) We’ve seen different European leaders take over Egypt thousands of years apart. Presidents have been assassinated in eerily similar ways. And we’ve seen Germany try to take over the world not once but TWICE! If that statement is indeed true what does that tell us about the last time Andy Reid and the Chiefs hung 40 on the Pats and Tom Brady?

You may or may not remember but 3 years ago this happened. In week 4 of the 2014 season the Chiefs destroyed the Patriots and Tom Brady 41-14 and it wasn’t even that close. In the days and weeks that followed the media asked the obvious question, is Tom Brady’s career coming to an end? Ya know cause he’s old. Bill Belichick famously said the team had moved on to Cincinnati, and long story short the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. Its been three years since anyone has seriously questioned whether or not Brady is too old to be playing mostly because he’s always proved everyone wrong. Coming off a bad loss I have an idea what will happen to Tom in the near future.

Bill Belichick has a history of cutting good players. Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Deion Branch, Lawyer Miloy, Mike Vrabel, Asante Samuel, Richard Seymour, Adam Vinitari, Wes Welker, Logan Mankins, Jamie Collins. That is just some of players who were cut or traded by Bill Belichick well before their primes were over. Part of what makes Belichick a genius is he is never afraid to get rid of a player who doesn’t fit his system, or is getting too old to play their position. The only consistent with the Bill Belichick led Patriots is there will be enough Caucasian wide receivers to make you question whether or not Belichick is racist, and Tom Brady will be the QB, only until he isn’t.

Father time is undefeated, its a quote that is often heard on sports talk shows and like most cliches its become a cliche because it is true. The list of NFL QB’s playing into their 40’s is short and unsuccessful, much like Kobe Bryant’s rap career. No matter how much kale TB12 eats he is coming to the end of his career. For any team in the NFL a QB that has played a 17 year career in a city and winning multiple super bowls is a ticket to finish your career however you want. However the Patriots are not like every NFL team, and Belichick is not every NFL coach. Belichick has a well document past of getting rid of players before their time, what is stopping him from doing the same with his beloved Tom Brady. You might think, ‘oh Bill has cut lineman and cornerbacks but they are replaceable unlike the great Tom Brady.’  WOW HOW WE HAVE ALL FORGOTTEN ABOUT HOW TOM BRADY GOT HIS JOB IN THE FIRST PLACE, HE REPLACED ANOTHER LEGENDARY QB.

Drew Bledsoe is only 5 years older than Tom Brady, and was far from washed up when he replaced Brady during the 2001. In fact going into the 2001 season Bledsoe had just signed a 10 year 100 million dollar contract. That did not stop Belichick from naming Brady his starting QB and throwing Bledsoe into the trash (aka Buffalo). At the time this move was shocking and controversial. Brady’s unworldly play over the next 15 years made the world forget about Drew Bledsoe. However precedent has been set, Belichick is willing to shock the world and replace a seemingly irreplaceable QB.  All he needs is the next Tom Brady, and he may have it in Jimmy Garoppolo.  Jimmy has only made a few starts and thrown a handful of passes but that didn’t stop teams this offseason from trying to trade up to 2 first round picks to pry him away from Belichick. Yet somehow Jimmy G is still a Patriot. We’ve already established that is Belichick doesn’t want you in New England, you’re gone. So why is Jimmy G still there?

The Patriots may finally be at the crossroads of Tommy terrific’s career. As with any crossroad there are two options, the Patriots destroy the Saints this Sunday and blow through the dumpster fire known as the AFC East en route to their 6th Super Bowl. Or this is the time for Belichick to shock the world, bench his golden goose and go with a younger and much more handsome arm, Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not saying which one is going to happen, but I will guarantee this. Tom Brady will not play QB for the Patriots forever and at some point Jimmy Garoppolo will be the Starting QB for New England. And it may happen sooner than you think.

 

NFL Week 2 Picks

All lines used from the Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest

6 point tease: Ravens -1.5 Panthers -1.5

Redskins +2.5

Broncos +2.5

Patriots -6.5

6 point tease: Ravens -1.5 Panthers -1.5

I got bit by temptation last week taking a tease of the 2 teams who made the super bowl last year and sweet temptation got me again this week. I’m taking another tease. This time I’m going with 2 teams who looked great in week 1 over two teams who looked mediocre in week 1, HOW COULD ANYTHING POSSIBLY GO WRONG. Ravens defense looked dominate in week 1 against the Bengals and I like them to dominate again at home vs the team who has started 800 quarterbacks since 1999 and is starting a rookie who went 4-8 his last season in college. Panthers on the other hand beat up on the niners last Sunday and head home to play the Bills. The Bills are 1-0 but that is just because they had the pleasure of playing maybe the worst team in the history of professional sports, the Jets. The Bills are not a good football team and I expect them to lose easily to the Panthers in Carolina.

Redskins +2.5

Washington spent the offseason firing their GM, then pretending they hired a new one? I honestly don’t think there is a person on the planet who fully understands what Dan Snyder is doing. The Skins are also going on almost 30 months deciding if they fully want to commit to franchise QB Kirk Cousins or not. Basically this whole Redskins season has disaster written all over it, or as Redskins fans call it, just another year. Still they are a better team than the Rams. The Rams destroyed the abysmal Colts last Sunday, which is the primary reason they are almost a field goal favorite in this game. Washington is the better team in this matchup and a much tougher opponent for the Rams than Scott Tolzien and the Colts.

Broncos +2.5

The dominate, super bowl 50 winning Bronco defense as a home underdog, this is a gamblers dream scenario. The main reason the Broncos are underdogs at Mile High is they are playing the Cowboys, who went 13-3 last year (with a very soft schedule let me remind you), and are the most public team in the NFL. Meaning more people bet on the Cowboys which moves the line toward them. The second reason is the Cowboys looked very good last Sunday against the Giants. I believe last Sunday was more a case of the Giants offence is terrible without OBJ, rather than the Cowboys actually have a good defense. And finally the Denver defense is still very good in case anyone has forgotten, especially against young QBs. 

 

Patriots -6.5

Tom Brady will eventually be replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo. Tom Brady is human and will eventually play like it. Tom Brady doesn’t have his safety blanket in Julian Edelmen. BUT this week is handed a gift. He gets to play against the horrific Saints defense. Bill and Tom are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up loss. The Patriots set the NFL record last year ATS going 16-3. All they have to do is beat the Saints by a Touchdown? Give me that all day. The poor Saints are in a tough spot coming off a Monday night game on the road and meanwhile the Pats have 10 days rest playing last Thursday. The Saints defense won’t know what hit em, I like the Patriots by double digits on Sunday.

 

Thank you to everyone for reading. Be sure to check out Bart’s Best Bets for college picks and come back next week for more NFL. Happy week 2 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football. 

Well look at that. Another 4-1 week from Bart’s Best Bets. I’m off to an 8-2 start and I am super happy about it. False, I am not happy with my performance thus far. I should have a record of 9-1, but I bet against Baker Mayfield. The sole reason I picked Ohio State in this one was because of Urban Meyer. I figured he would want to lay the wood to the young coach Lincoln Riley. What I did not know was that this team does not belong to Lincoln Riley, this team is Baker Mayfield’s and I don’t think anyone can make an argument otherwise. He is clearly the ultimate leader on this team and everyone knows it. That dude has been balling out ever since he arrived on OU’s campus and he had the kind of game at Ohio State that wins a Heisman Trophy (4/1 odds currently). I’m sure that Lincoln Riley is a fine coach and will do a great job at Oklahoma in later years, but OU’s success this year will be because of the leadership and play of Mayfield. So here’s my promise to you readers out there: I will not pick against the 2017 Oklahoma Sooner Football team ever again. I don’t care if they are playing Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, or any other great college football team. Baker Mayfield will find a way to cover the spread, if not win the game!

Seriously though, my .800 win percentage is nearly impossible to keep up thorough out a whole season so don’t be upset if my week 3 picks go 0-5. Water always finds it’s level, and when it does, just know that I will be more upset than any of you guys. In the mean time, I will continue to pick out my five favorite lines and totals of the week and hopefully make you readers some money! I don’t have any funny stories this week (again, they will come, long season), so I guess I’ll just get straight to the picks!

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Saturday, September 16th

Tennessee (+4) @ Florida

I know it is extremely tough to go into Gainsville and beat Florida at football, but I have a few different reasons to like Tennessee in this one. First and foremost, Florida did not have a game in Week 2 due to Hurricane Irma. They really could have used that game against Northern Colorado to groove in their offense before SEC play. My second reason is pretty simple, Florida has not yet scored an offensive touchdown this season, and they really haven’t even come close. Sure, the defense is great, but the quarterback play is a huge question mark. You can’t rely on the defense to win games, not in the SEC. Tennessee has a lot of momentum going into this game and I think they are a good enough football team to grind out a win here. Worst case scenario is that the Volunteers lose by a field goal, because we both know that Florida cannot score touchdowns.

Clemson/Louisville UNDER 58

This is setting up to be a great game to watch as these ACC foes face off. I know it’s early, but now that Florida State lost its starting quarterback, this could be the game that decides the winner of the Atlantic Division. I know Louisville and Lamar Jackson enjoy scoring a lot of points (41 points per game), but I am taking the under in this one because of Clemson. I think they have realized they can’t win games like they used to when Deshaun Watson was at QB and they had plenty of NFL caliber wide receivers. They beat a very good Auburn team last Saturday by a score of 14-6. Clemson obviously has a great defense and are not afraid to use it. This is a huge game for both teams and I think Clemson will try to keep Lamar Jackson off the field by having long offensive drives and playing the field position game. I see this being a 21-17 kind of game that goes down to the very end. I have no idea who wins this game, but I do know the total will stay under 58.

Purdue (+7) @ Missouri

There’s so much to love about Purdue this year. First, Jeff Brohm is by far my second favorite college football coach (PJ Fleck being my favorite, obviously). If you aren’t aware of Jeff Brohm yet, look at this and this. You’re welcome. Second, I have a sneaking suspicion that Purdue might end the season with the best ATS record in the nation (again, remind me of this when they go 1-8 in the Big Ten). Purdue continues to be undervalued in Vegas and last I checked Missouri is not good at football. I think Purdue has a really good chance of being a decent football team this year and I will continue to ride them until they let me down.

Oregon State @ Washington State (-21)

Purdue and Oregon State are on the exact opposite ends of the ATS record standings. Oregon State is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS and just got crushed by Minnesota at HOME last Saturday. Washington State on the other hand had an epic 3OT win over Boise State last weekend in which they came back from a 31-10 deficit in the fourth quarter. In my opinion, if Washington State wants any chance at winning their division in the PAC12, they need to start hot and absolutely bully the Beavers. I like the Cougars to ride the momentum from its latest victory and beat Oregon State by 25+. Also, just like Purdue, I will continue to go against Oregon State until they burn me.

Texas/USC OVER 67

I’m not going to try and act like I’m an expert on either team involved in this game. Here’s what I do know, USC is averaging 45.5 ppg and Texas is averaging 53.5 ppg. If you add those two numbers together you 99 points per game! That’s 32 points more than what oddsmakers set the total at. Both quarterbacks can ball and they have some really good receivers to throw to. I don’t care how good the defenses are (they aren’t good), this game is set to be a shootout. I would honestly go over 80 on this game. Take the over and enjoy watching this one, because it’s going to be a fun one.

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 8-2 (5-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U)

There you have it, folks. Week 3 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Row that Boat and let’s keep this hot streak rolling. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 2 picks!

So as you probably know by now, Bart’s Best Bets went 4-1 last week. I’m not going to get too excited though, it’s a VERY long season. But for real, What a start to the college football season! I could take all the credit for a great week of picking, but that would be very unfair to my wife, who deserves a good amount of credit herself. I know Saturday’s are for the boys, but I spent all of Saturday watching football with my wife (bless her heart). Now you’re probably wondering, “Where does this magical power thing come into the story?” Well, here it is: We’re watching the Michigan v. Florida game on Saturday afternoon (in the cave) when I notice her starting to go into full nap mode, which I don’t think much of because Michigan is up 10-3 at this point and they look like they are in control. Once she is fully asleep, the wheels start to fall off for Michigan. Wilton Speight goes ahead and throws TWO PICK SIXES IN A ROW! Florida is now leading 17-10 and I have a very uneasy feeling in my stomach. Those that know me are well aware that I am very superstitious so I start to get a little worried about the fact that my wife is sleeping; everything was going great until she dozed off. I told myself I wouldn’t go into full panic mode and wake her up until at least half time. Luckily, she woke up with about six minutes left in the second quarter. This is where things get weird. Right when she wakes up, Michigan starts driving down the field easily and kicks a field goal with four minutes left in the half. So it’s 17-13 at half time and I told my wife that she was not allowed to fall asleep for the rest of the game because I had a hunch that bad things would happen if she went back into nap mode. She stayed awake for the rest of the game and Michigan went on to outscore Florida 20-0 in the second half and cruises to an easy 33-17 victory (Florida did not score an offensive touchdown, ouch). Now, some of you may think this is just a big coincidence, and that’s okay. Just know this, when my wife was alert and awake Michigan outscored Florida 33-3 and when she was asleep Florida outscored Michigan 14-0. There’s a lot of dots that can be connected there. My wife has magical football powers and all you readers need to thank her for Michigan -4!

Quick Miami Hurricane update: The Canes beat Bethune-Cookman (who?) with a score of 41-13. Score was tied 3-3 at the end of the first quarter, but then Miami woke up and played like they were supposed to. They still couldn’t manage to cover the 51.5 point spread. No worries though, because we discovered they have this thing called the “Turnover Chain” they give to anybody who forces a turnover so they can wear it on the sideline. Such a Miami move it’s not even funny. THE U IS BACK (for a week, at least). Unfortunately, due to Hurricane Irma (prayers to everyone affected), the Miami @ Arkansas State game has been cancelled, which means they will not make the game up and Miami will only play 11 games this year. We are still trying to find out what exactly this means for our OVER 9 wins bet, but it will most likely end up being no action and a push. So, basically the same result as our Arkansas bet last year, but a lot less exciting. I will still be a big fan of the Miami Hurricane football team no matter what this year. They have my heart.

Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder, I don’t actually gamble real money, because gambling is illegal in Nebraska. If I could gamble legally, these would be the picks I would go with. All of the lines and totals are set at time of publishing (odds coming from oddshark), and will not change as the week goes on. So get’em while their hot! Here we go,  Bart’s Best Bets Baby!

Friday, September 8th

Ohio @ Purdue (-3.5)

I never thought I would be taking Purdue in a football game, let along Purdue as a 3.5 point favorite, but here I am. I very well could be overreacting to how well Purdue played against Louisville on Saturday, but they really looked like a team that could win a couple games in Big Ten play (remind me I said that when they go 1-8 in the Big Ten). As for Ohio, they demolished Hampton 59-0 and held them to only 108 yards of offense and 7 first downs. Ohio lost a lot of receivers and their quarterback from last years team, so they are pretty much limited to running the ball. Purdue threw the ball well against Louisville and I believe they will continue that against Ohio’s weak secondary. The bottom line here is that Purdue now knows that they could be a decent football team this year, but in order for that to happen, they have to beat Ohio at home on a Friday night. I know Ohio is no slouch (I LOVE me some MACtion), but give me Purdue by a touchdown.

Saturday, September 9th

Northwestern @ Duke (+3)

Are these two teams playing football or taking the SAT against each other? Either way, if I’m given Duke as a three point home dog, I’m taking that all day long! In my opinion, Northwestern has been and always will be an overrated team (betting wise) and I have no idea why. They were in a fight to the end with Nevada at HOME last weekend. They were 24 point favorites going into the game, but were down 17-7 at half. Sure, they ended up winning the game 31-20, but they cannot afford to have a slow start against Duke on the road. Duke had a great start to their season, beating North Carolina Central 60-7. Their biggest problem last year was their offense, so scoring 60 points in their opener has to give them confidence going into week 2. This year, Duke’s weakness will be their defense, but luckily for them Northwestern doesn’t have the most explosive offense in the country. This is going to be a back and forth game, and I think the crowd will get behind them in the fourth quarter and help Duke squeak out a nail biter against Northwestern.

Nebraska/Oregon OVER 70

As you all probably know, I am a Nebraska Football fan, so I’m not going to get started on a rant about the game last week. Instead, I’ll just post the scores from both Oregon and Nebraska’s week 1 games. Oregon beat Southern Utah 77-21 and Nebraska defeated Arkansas State 43-36. That’s a total of 120 combined points for Oregon and Nebraska last week. I don’t think either defense will be too interested in staying on the field for an extended period of time and I look for this game to become a shootout early. This line is going to continue to go up and probably close around 72, so get it while it’s hot!

Oklahoma @ Ohio State (-7.5)

This is going to be a fun game and I’m really looking forward to watching it. I think we’re getting some great value with Ohio State here. The only reason this line isn’t -10.5 is because they let Indiana hang around for 2.5 quarters last Thursday. Sure, Oklahoma looked good in their 57-6 win over UTEP, but Ohio State has a couple extra days of rest and it’s their home opener on Saturday AND it’s a night game. I don’t have the numbers, but I feel like Ohio State has pretty good record in their home night games. Oklahoma will hang around for a half or so, but I think Urban Meyer and his boys will pull away towards the end and win by 10+ points.

Minnesota (+3) @ Oregon State

I cannot help myself with this one. You guys are well aware by now that I absolutely LOVE me some PJ Fleck action, and I don’t think too highly of Oregon State this year. Oregon State lost to Colorado State by 31 points two weeks ago, and then BARELY beat Portland State at home last Saturday. So here’s the burning question: Why in the world is Oregon State favored by 3 points in this game?! Yeah, Minnesota didn’t play particularly well against Buffalo, but at least they didn’t allow 30+ points to Portland State! Minnesota should be favored in this game by at least a field goal, so I’ll definitely take the Gophers at +3. I say PJ Fleck Rows His Boat Into Corvallis and wins by a touchdown.

Bart’s Best Bets Year to Date: 4-1

There you have it, folks. Week 2 of Bart’s Best Bets. I hope you enjoyed reading and enjoy my picks this week even more. Have a GREAT weekend of football watching, and don’t forget to check out DaveCh999’s NFL Week 1 picks! Oh yeah, don’t forget to thank my wife!

Quick question: What’s better than skipping church, sitting on the couch in a dark room watching the Red Zone channel for 12 hours avoiding all real world responsibilities, and gambling on grown men who probably have CTE? Doing it for the first time since February, Welcome to NFL Sunday.

NFL football is finally back! We’ve had the nice appetizer of 2 weeks of college football which is fun but sort of like trying to make a full meal out of mozzarella sticks, it can leave you feeling a little empty inside. The college kids making their schools millions in free labor and advertising can be cute but for true fans nothing will touch the thrill of sundays. Gambling, fantasy, seeing players from your favorite team take a knee during 2 minutes of a 200 year old song before the game and then having the entire country lose their mind over the fact a backup QB can’t get a job, I mean CAN YOU FEEL IT FOOTBALL IS BACK. Each Sunday I’ll give you my picks against the spread in at least 3 NFL games. Before that though I would like to talk about some bad news.

Have you ever had to give someone bad news? Break up with a significant other? Tell someone their dog died? It’s not fun for anyone involved. No person is ever happy when they are forced to give someone bad news but sometimes bad news is necessary, especially when you’re the boss. Employer’s might be the best qualified people to give bad news. They often have to tell their employees the truth, which can be bad, or even there are times when employers have to fire employees.  I’ve never personally fired anyone but I have been bad enough at jobs to deserve to be fired.

If I did have to fire someone I would wait until a Friday, statistically there’s less of a chance for an incident. The one occasion I know I would not be able to fire someone is if I knew they were going through a hard time. I couldn’t bring myself to give that person more bad news. Which brings me to my question? How long is it acceptable to wait after a person has battled cancer to fire them from their job?

Before I attempt to answer that question I would like to state my opinion. Cancer is bad. According to the National Cancer Institute almost 600,000 people die every year in the United States from Cancer. Basically the population of the state of Wyoming dies every year from cancer. It is a horrible disease that has affected almost everyone in our country. Cancer can destroy families and cripple people financially (In certain cases it can even drive innocent chemistry teachers to start selling meth to pay their medical bills and even turn them into drug kingpins).

In case you don’t remember, almost 5 years ago the Indianapolis Colts head Coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with Leukemia. He missed 11 games during the 2012 season, and during that time the Colts thrived under interim head coach Bruce Arians. Pagano beat Leukemia and returned to the Colts for a playoff run that season. Pagano went on to lead the Colts to 11-5 records the next two seasons before losing to the Patriots both times in the playoffs. Since they the Colts have struggled, finishing 8-8 over the past 2 seasons, even though they have something everyone in the NFL covets, an elite QB in Andrew Luck.

A huge part of the Colts struggles the past 2 seasons has been Andrew Luck’s health. Luck has missed 10 games in the past 2 seasons mostly with shoulder injuries. You might call QB injuries ‘unLucky’ (ok that was very lame but it was too easy to not say it) or you could say Luck’s career has been mismanaged by the Colts organization. Allowing Andrew Luck, the present and future of the franchise, a player any of the 32 teams would kill to have, play while injured is flat out neglect. He is 27 and should be in the prime of his career and instead he is entering his 6th season on the bench because the Colts have no allowed his injury to properly heal.

Andrew Luck playing with one shoulder instead of two is better than 95% of QBs in the NFL. Which is why the Colts have been able to go 8-8 in the first place the last two seasons. Their roster is much worse than a .500 team but a QB as great as Luck has kept them afloat. Getting blown out in the playoffs in back to back years and then going .500 for the next two seasons should have been enough to lose Chuck Pagano his job this offseason but he is still the HC in Indianapolis. Which begs the question,

How long should you wait to fire someone after they’ve beaten cancer? 

I’d say 4 years is long enough. Chuck Pagano is an inspirational man. Beating cancer is no small feat, but how many more seasons of Andrew Luck’s prime are the Colts going to waste on this 8-8 coach?

Who is the incompetent boss in charge of keeping Chuck Pagano? None other than this guy, Jim Irsay.

It all makes sense now. How does a franchise with the best young QB in the league go from a top playoff contender, to back to back 8-8 seasons and refuse to fire their coach? That team is owned by this guy. It really does make sense why the Colts are so dysfunctional when you look at their owner. I don’t need to explain much more than Jim Irsay’s rap sheet Wikipedia page. DUI, drug possession, randomly tweeting out a picture of a naked women in the middle of the night. They say leadership starts at the top and its not hard to imagine why Irsay has never got around to firing Chuck Pagano. Hard to tell a man who beat cancer he’s out of a job when Irsay can’t go 6 months with out taking a mug shot. If I were Jim Irsay (first of all I’d stop getting DUI’s and posting pictures of naked women on the internet) I would sit Andrew Luck out for the entire season. Seriously an option to consider, he is the future of your franchise and it is not worth trying to go 8-8 again just to see him farther injury himself. The Colts need to make up their minds and stop wasting Luck’s prime going 8-8. Fire your coach, (even though he is a hero for battling cancer), Play Jacoby Brissett, go 4-12, and draft nothing but offensive linemen next year to help Luck out.

NFL Week 1 Picks

All Lines used from the Las Vegas Westgate Supercontest

6.5 point tease: Patriots -2.5 Falcons -0.5

Cardinals -2

Rams -3.5

Patriots -2.5 Falcons -0.5

Originally the Pats are favored by -9 and the Falcons are favored by -7, with the 6.5 point teaser I’m taking both these teams to cover smaller spreads for a -150 payout. Let’s start with the Pats, they open the entire NFL season at home on Thursday night against the Chiefs. Roger Goodell will be in attendance and Gronk will be healthy for the first time since he was in high school*. Since Bill Belicheat became the head coach the Patriots are 98-0 in home openers probably. The Pats are going to take care of the Chiefs. As for my Falcons, yes I am worried they are all suffering from 28-3 PTSD, but there is one reason I am very confident they will win Sunday. The Falcons are playing the Bears and Mike Glennon is the starting QB, Stop, don’t over think it. The Falcons might have suffered the worst lost in the history of the NFL, Football, Sports, human history, the entire universe, but they aren’t gonna lose a game to Mike Glennon.

Cardinals -2

Remember when Chuck Pagano had cancer and an interim head coach led the Colts to an 11-5 record? Turns out that interim head coach was actually a pretty great coach. The Cards had a disappointing year last year after reaching the NFC championship the year before partial due to the fact they opened the season on the road at New England. After losing to the Pats week 1 it was all downhill from there. Bruce Arians is not about to let that happen twice. The new and improved Cardinal defense will get after Matt Staford and the Lions who happen to be missing their best defensive player for week 1.

Rams -3.5

Tough to bet against the great Andrew Luck in week 1. Oh wait, Luck isn’t playing? There hasn’t even been a game yet how is he hurt? His injury is from last season? How is that possible? BECAUSE HIS TERRIBLE COACH AND TERRIBLE OWNER NEVER LET THE FRANCHISE PLAYER HEAL HIS INJURY 100% AND THEY SHOULD BE SENT TO FOOTBALL JAIL FOR PUTTING HIM IN GAMES BEFORE HE IS HEALTHY. The Colts are starting Scott Tolzien week 1 on the road in LA, and I don’t even care if the Rams are trash and Jared Goff doesn’t know which direction the sun sets. Scott Tolzien is not winning a game on the road, even without Aaron Donald the Rams are winning this game.

 

Thank you to everyone for reading and apologizes to Colts fans for having such a terrible owner. Be sure to check out Bart’s Best Bets for college picks and come back next week for more NFL. Happy week 1 everyone and remember don’t let your life get in the way of your football.